1. Welcome to the #1 Gambling Community with the best minds across the entire gambling spectrum. REGISTER NOW!
  2. Have a gambling question?

    Post it here and our gambling experts will answer it!
    Dismiss Notice
  3. Discussions in this section are assumed to be EV- as they are outside of the Advantage Play section. For EV+ discussions, please visit the Advantage Play section.
    Dismiss Notice

Baccarat Ellis Davis Clifton & S40 & NOR

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Sputnik, Mar 29, 2021.

  1. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2014
    Likes:
    362
    I hear a story - don't know the truth behind it - but Ellis at some point at the tables have won several shoes in a row - thanks to the main concept of S40 that main concept is to catch singles.

    And I know how he did it, where and why and when it happens.
    Stubble upon one RNG session with no end.
    Two sequences with certain quality just follow each other with no interruption - that was a pretty amazing feeling.
    But I still try to understand how to tackle some enjoying interruptions of certain sequences.

    Once I post the main framework and got a private message not feeding the public with such information from a very respected member.
    I took that as a good sign that only made my belief stronger following the right path.

    Also, I solve the NOR with a much better concept, in my opinion, even if not completely finish.
    Is pretty simple, you have sixteen sequences versus two.
    I believe one member come up with the same concept that I had email contact with.

    I Will update soon ...

    Cheers
     
    Roubacc likes this.
  2. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2016
    Likes:
    323
    Location:
    North Carolina
    That is very cool. Keep us updated Sputnik. I used S40 for the longest while.
     
  3. Roubacc

    Roubacc Active Member

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2017
    Likes:
    48
    Location:
    California
    I know Ellis very well. I was also a part of BTC in their heyday. The truth is, although Ellis has a great mind for the game of baccarat and he has come up with some interesting concepts but everything that he ever came up with had a nemesis.
    I happen to know Ellis very well. I was also a member of BTC in their heyday before all the masters left. And YES, it is appropriate to call them all masters (Ellis not included) because several of them have taken and continue to take millions from the casino without getting barred.
    The truth is, although Ellis has a great baccarat mind and over the years has come up with over 30 systems (at last count), ALL of them had a nemesis to something. Whether it was 2s,3s,4s, whatever. None ever worked in the long run and ALL were mechanical. Mechanical systems DON'T WORK in baccarat. That's a fact. I don't believe for a minute that Ellis won 40 shoes with System 40. None of Ellis's systems can be played by themselves as a stand alone system. NONE. He has been and always will be a snake oil salesman/system seller. Where Ellis did shine was his design of the vertical scorecard and OTB4L (Opposite time before last) and that's it. Both were brilliant.
    The true masters of the game were PapaJoe, the latet Norm Allen, and Oz. All of these guys could run circles around Ellis. Moreover, if Ellis had made as much money as he claims, he wouldn't be living in a small shack in the boon docks, and in the middle of Arkansas. He doesn't have a penny to his name.
     
    MrZhang likes this.
  4. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2020
    Likes:
    386
    Location:
    Malaysia
    He promoted multiple systems and the onus is on you to determine which system fits into the particular results happening then. Because like is rightly said, each system has a nemesis. All systems have a nemesis. And for whatever reasons, the ‘terrible 2s’ will kill off most systems.
     
    cps10 likes this.
  5. eugene

    eugene Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2016
    Likes:
    415
    Location:
    united kingdom
    I actually don't mind the 'terrible 2's' but like anything, I suppose it depends how you approach things.

    Looking at some gameplay...

    B
    P
    B
    B (so B is the dominant side)
    B
    P
    P (so now the dominant side has ended)
    B
    B

    You can see it's went into the 2's and so all I do is play for the second result and would have bet for the second B.

    p
    p (Bet for this second P)
    B
    B (Bet for the second B)
    B (Now the 2's have broken but I am not going back to the B as though it's dominant, I am still looking to catch the second result as a type of FTL bet)
    P
    P (Bet for the P here)
    P
    P
    B
    P (Now B+ and P+ have broken and it could go back into P domination or maybe some chops)

    Anyway, just a bit of an insight for anyone interested, the 2's don't need to kill you but if you play every hand with no overall strategy, they do have a tendency to creep up on you before you know what's happened.
     
    Sputnik and Roubacc like this.
  6. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2020
    Likes:
    386
    Location:
    Malaysia
    If there is a terrible 2s trend, players like me with a trend bias would tend to win.

    Systems whether from Ellis or others will normally find their nemesis in terrible 2s.
     
    Terry Plumb and Roubacc like this.
  7. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2016
    Likes:
    818
    Location:
    FrozenTundra
    Bbbbbbbbbbbbwwwwwwwwwwwaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh cats are talkin ecd, just like old times, hey hey.
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.

  8. Zhang Wei

    Zhang Wei Active Member

    Joined:
    May 4, 2020
    Likes:
    83
    Location:
    China
    Ellis is no longer active.
    I've lost contact with him.
    Would love to know how is he doing.
    Hope he is safe and well.
     
    Roubacc likes this.
  9. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2014
    Likes:
    362
    My opinion and take on those who make serious money playing baccarat:

    I know about Gambler Fallacy - but history is repeating itself and being part of the future - it is conditional probability.
    And in the whole universe then come and fade like waves.

    Fuzzy - well here are some explanatory notes:

    When I see - BB p BB pp B p B pp B - then we know it will end with 3+ that is a law, but we can not tell when.

    Next - BB p BB pp B p B pp B pppp - now is a law that one single or one series of two will show, that is a law, but we can not tell when.

    But with an educated guess and observing the whole, I know the majority of the random walk universe.
    With a very high likelihood, i know what comes next.

    21 stand for series of two and singles
    31 stand of series of 3+ and singles
    23 stand for series of two and series 3+

    The bird perspective to look at the phases of the swarms - the random walk universe and future journey.
    The following is how the future unfolds:

    Example A

    21
    31
    21
    31
    23

    Example B

    23
    21
    23
    31

    Let's say we get the whole random walk of random bits to alternate with no repeating events will result in four losses, LLLL.

    21
    31
    23
    21

    No bias present.
    This is not about the terrible two's - this is the fact that we follow the shoe and random universe.

    I can easily win 2 to 15 units flat betting based upon these principles.
    Because I know history repeats itself and events repeat themselves and are part of future outcomes.
    And the losses hovering around -1 or at most -4 units.

    Here is another example, assume I have 21 and 31 then it takes only two single bets to ride 21 next and that apply to each existing combination.
    The same reverse, if losing -2 units.

    This is the only way Ellis could have won 40 shoes where the main event connected each phase was singles.
    The question is if he got any interruptions, but jump back on the strong trend.
    With my example, you can get triplets interrupting and I still working to solve and move forward on how to tackle them.
    The difference is i am flat betting and Ellis used Up 1 and Down 2 - current me if I am wrong - assume he uses six attempts - that would handle small interruptions during a strong ongoing trend.

    Cheers
     
    Terry Plumb and Roubacc like this.
  10. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2014
    Likes:
    362
    Here is a video to illustrate - peak +12 units flat betting history to repeat and create bias and past event to be part of the future.

     
  11. Roubacc

    Roubacc Active Member

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2017
    Likes:
    48
    Location:
    California
    Ellis was strictly a mechanical player. He never would have taken the time to analyze the sequences. He always just played his U1D2 progression with a hope and a prayer that it would “plow” thru anything the shoe could throw at him.
     
    Sputnik likes this.
  12. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2020
    Likes:
    386
    Location:
    Malaysia
    As I understand it, he has many systems to his name? Mechanical as one may claim him to be, still the decision as to which system to use for each shoe was in itself subjective?

    Perhaps after which system is chosen, then the bets become mechanical.
     
    Sputnik and Roubacc like this.
  13. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2016
    Likes:
    818
    Location:
    FrozenTundra
    I said it again and I'll say it before Iain't got no interest in any style what ain't purely objective, mechanical and can be replicate by most any old cat. Cats make the scene with all kind of subjective that and this so nobody can replicate their supposed success. That why the systems seller make thgeir style as subjective as possible so can't pin them down on what they do, hey hey.
     
  14. tommac147

    tommac147 Member

    Joined:
    May 5, 2018
    Likes:
    22
    Location:
    earth
    Roubacc I think you are a bit hard on Ellis it is common for student's to do better than their teacher if they blessed with the right talent or aptitude.Ellis plays at online casino's though a third party that lives in a area that is accepted by online casino's. He had to argue with one casino to get the $14000 owed to him. He said he kept making systems trying to find one that the average person could win with. Ellis would have destroyed those baccarat games posted by eugene with S40 if he chose to use that method. Information is what is important if you are trying to improve, some will be good some will be bad that's up to you to decide.
     
    Trainer and cps10 like this.

  15. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2014
    Likes:
    671
    That
    I go back a long way with Ellis. Way before BTC. He always wanted to find the holy grail and it took him a long time to recognize and admit what you just said, OB.

    He and I never saw eye to eye due to his many misrepresentations. But I agree with tommac. He had a good head for the game and helped a lot of people get better simply by throwing out so many ideas, myself included.

    LOL, brings back memories. I think his first system was zig zag! Hahaha! With a good progression and tweak one could do all right with that as a basic bet placement.
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2021
    IDPA and Roubacc like this.
  16. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2014
    Likes:
    671
    Other than syntax there are a few problems with your statement. 1) there is no mechanical system, that wins and 2) subjective winning methods can be learned.
     
  17. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 28, 2016
    Likes:
    323
    Location:
    North Carolina
    I also agree with tommac. I feel that even if information isn’t exactly what you expect, it’s still information. I will never condemn a system seller for selling me information because it’s up to me to use it to my best ability to fit my game.
     
    Jimske likes this.
  18. Craps

    Craps Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2018
    Likes:
    251
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    Isn't this is what I said all along? When you look just at long B's or P's, you can say the runs will stop at one point BECAUSE it the LAW. What is the LAW? The Law of Averages of course. LOA does not mean both sides needs to balance equally when it comes to Binary outcome games like Baccarat. What it means is paying attention to the weak side to make a comeback simply does have the backing of MATH.

    The examples in the post is on whether 3's will appear after too many 1's and 2's. Although things are never OVERDUE, but paying attention to LOA is a must.

    The thing is LOA might had happen when you are away from the casino and that is why testing is useless. Your own personal records with the casino is very valuable to you alone and nobody else. Study to find imbalances to a certain margin and use probability like a Martingale to steal a unit Hit & Run do make a lot of sense. Don't be so short sighted with Bet Selection and MM.
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2021
  19. playerA

    playerA New Member

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2021
    Likes:
    3
    Location:
    Peru
    Dear Sputnik,

    How should I take not of the shoe in order to see this conditional probability during the shoe. I am using S40 mostly in parts of the shoe waiting for 1 with a few 2 or 3 popping up. I see you are more experienced, so I thought maybe you can help me into the right direction how to take notations in before implementation? Playing mostly flat or a small 1 1.5 when winning 3 flat bets.

    Thank you,
     
  20. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2014
    Likes:
    362
    Player A - As Jimske put it - I am a terrible teacher
    I am pretty lonely using my concept.

    Maybe you should follow others who go deep into bet 3+ and 2s and 1s in different combinations and length.
    For me and my clustering, it only exists three outcomes, events.
    The core behind the bias.

    Cheers
     

Share This Page