Forex Examples of Systems with an Edge

G'day All,

The aim of this thread is to discuss trading setups/situations which over time have a greater than 50% chance of being profitable with a R:R ratio of 1:1.
Sounds simple!

As trader who has really struggled at times and is really not profitable, I'm open to wisdom and experience from more profitable approaches to a trade.
I'm happy to help determine a setup's edge as I have a fair bit of data crunching experience.
Any setup or idea is worth discussing.
I'll get the ball rolling.
As you can see on the chart below, i had a successful long trade. I exited my long shortly into the candle after a bearish candle. I has assumed that based upon the previous price action represented by the candle that price had been going up and has failed and commenced coming down, so I exited a winning trade at the time happy with the pips I had made. However as you can see, shortly after I exited price rebounded very strongly and has continued to go up.

Based upon the information I had I chose to exit the trade (or I could have opened a new short trade based upon the price action of the previous candle).
Based on this setup, should I have expected price to fall? If so what % chance of the next trade being a profitable trade (based upon R:R 1:1).

I'm hopeful that I have explained the situation in my OP correctly for some great discussions and ideas.

Over to the FF community!!

Cheers
Timmy

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