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Baccarat Experimental Selections

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Sputnik, Jan 22, 2022.

  1. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Experimental Selections

    I have a crystal ball that gives me the likelihood for something to happen.
    And is based upon math and probability.

    Here is one example of using different ways to achieve the same thing.
    Two-point regression.

    Here is the predetermined sequence.

    12 events versus 2 events (that is a 2.5 STD)
    14 events versus 2 events (that is a 3.0 STD)

    So if we use 6 events versus 1 event - then we have the expectation of two more events to show.
    If we bet against 2.5 STD.

    But nothing is due to happen, so sometimes we get 7 versus 1 or 8 versus 1 and we aim for the same two-point regression.

    Is the same using Banker versus Player
    Player versus Banker
    Singles versus series
    Series versus singles
    Series of two versus series of three or higher.
    Using series of three versus series of four and higher.

    two point regression 1.png

    two point regression 2.png
    regression two point 3.png


    two points regression 4.png
    two point regression 5.png
     
  2. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    68.3% of the time the divergence would be one SD or less. Either side of the MEAN.
    95% of the time the divergence would be 2 SD's or less. Either side of the MEAN.
    99.7% of the time the divergence would be 3 SD's or less. Either side of the MEAN.
    That only 0.3% of the time would the divergence exceed 3 SD's

    Several times have I achieved winning half the money at risk and operating with the casino's money

    . Ecart patrik.png

    So anyone can develop a method where there are underrepresented events versus overrepresented events.
    Based upon math and probability.

    Is pretty easy.

    Cheers
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2022
  3. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Each event has a value of 1.
    Here is a z-score shart calculating the likelihood of a series of three to show.
    Based upon single versus series of three.
    The series of two has the value of 0.

    Each event has a value of 1.
    The same chart works with a series of two versus a series of four and higher.
    Where a series of three has the value of 0.

    Where you can use a two-point regression schema.

    Code:
     1. Z-Score 0,02 -  1 singles contra 1 serie of three
     2. Z-Score 0,73 -  2 singles contra 1 serie of three
     3. Z-Score 1,18 -  3 singles contra 1 serie of three
     4. Z-Score 1,53 -  4 singles contra 1 serie of three
     5. Z-Score 1,82 -  5 singles contra 1 serie of three
     6. Z-Score 2,07 -  6 singles contra 1 serie of three
     7. Z-Score 2,30 -  7 singles contra 1 serie of three
     8. Z-Score 2,51 -  8 singles contra 1 serie of three
     9. Z-Score 2.58    9 singles contra 1 serie of three 
    10. Z-Score 2,70 - 10 singles contra 1 serie of three
    11. Z-Score 2,89 - 11 singles contra 1 serie of three
    12. Z-Score 3,06 - 12 singles contra 1 serie of three
    13. Z-Score 3,22 - 13 singles contra 1 serie of three
    14. Z-Score 3,37 - 14 singles contra 1 serie of three
    15. Z-Score 3,52 - 15 singles contra 1 serie of three
    16. Z-Score 3,66 - 16 singles contra 1 serie of three
    17. Z-Score 3,80 - 17 singles contra 1 serie of three
    18. Z-Score 3,93 - 18 singles contra 1 serie of three
    19. Z-Score 4,06 - 19 singles contra 1 serie of three
    20. Z-Score 4,18 - 20 singles contra 1 serie of three
    21. Z-Score 4,30 - 21 singles contra 1 serie of three
    22. Z-Score 4,42 - 22 singles contra 1 serie of three
    23. Z-Score 4,53 - 23 singles contra 1 serie of three
    24. Z-Score 4,64 - 24 singles contra 1 serie of three
    25. Z-Score 4,75 - 25 singles contra 1 serie of three
    26. Z-Score 4,86 - 26 singles contra 1 serie of three
    27. Z-Score 4,96 - 27 singles contra 1 serie of three
    28. Z-Score 5,07 - 28 singles contra 1 serie of three
    29. Z-Score 5,17 - 29 singles contra 1 serie of three
    30. Z-Score 5,26 - 30 singles contra 1 serie of three
    31. Z-Score 5,36 - 31 singles contra 1 serie of three
    32. Z-Score 5,45 - 32 singles contra 1 serie of three
    33. Z-Score 5,55 - 33 singles contra 1 serie of three
    34. Z-Score 5,64 - 34 singles contra 1 serie of three
    35. Z-Score 5,73 - 35 singles contra 1 serie of three
    36. Z-Score 5,82 - 36 singles contra 1 serie of three
    37. Z-Score 5,90 - 37 singles contra 1 serie of three
    38. Z-Score 5,99 - 38 singles contra 1 serie of three
    39. Z-Score 6,07 - 39 singles contra 1 serie of three
    
     
  4. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Calculate the median value.

    Collect 1000 sequences with singles versus a series of three or higher.
    Then you start from the sequences with no singles and a series of three hits after each other.
    Value 0

    Then you collect the sequences with 1 single before a series of three.
    2 and 3 and 4 and continue to add them in numerical order.

    0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3

    Then when you wrote all 1000 sequences in numerical order you calculate from the beginning up to 500 and look in the median value.
    Let's say the number is 6 singles before a series of three or higher show, then that median value has 50% likelihood.

    Then you can tweak and see the cutting edge between common and rare hits.

    Here are 738 sequences - see attachment.
    Left amount - Right singles before a series of three or higher.
    Code:
    
    212 = 0
    152 = 1
    132 = 2
    53 = 3
    58 = 4
    32 = 5
    17 = 6
    15 = 7
    14 = 8
      4 = 9
      3 = 10
      2 = 11
      1 = 12
      1 = 13
      0 = 14
      1 = 15
      ......
      1 = 27
    
    2 and 3 are the magic numbers that have a 50% likelihood.
    You can start from any point you like and use any progression you want.
    Use cycles on a rolling basis or bet against the extreme.
    Use the attached txt file.
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Jan 22, 2022
  5. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Attached the Z-Score excel for Baccarat. Now you can build your own charts.
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Jan 22, 2022
  6. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Here is a video with Regression Up & Pull staking 2 2 2 4 6 10 and can be extended to eight steps. Two-point regression.

     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2022
  7. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    The math doesn't add up with the probability - three-session end up with 2.5 and 3.0 STD.
    Maybe temporary - will continue testing.

    Cheers
     


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