Forex Forex News from InstaForex

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In this thread we present fresh Forex news. Our news contain exhaustive information about topical events and facts of the financial world; we offer international statistical data in order to help you correct and enhance your trading strategy. We also present video news from InstaForex-TV portal. InstaForex-TV channel provides the latest information about fluctuations of currency rates and forecasts their influence on the future movement of currencies. Our news will be especially useful if you prefer intraday trading and use fundamental analysis.

 

RBA Minutes: Domestic Economy Improved More Than Expected



Members of the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy board said that the country's economy has continued to pick up steam, and at a slightly faster rate than expected, minutes from the central bank's November 6 meeting revealed on Tuesday.

At the meeting, the RBA kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at a record low of 1.50 percent for the 26th consecutive meeting. The interest rate has been at the current level since August 2016.

"Members judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time," the minutes said.

The appreciating U.S. dollar and its effect on the Australian currency has helped to boost domestic growth, the minutes said. They added that the inflation rate remained low and stable beneath the midpoint of the target range, as expected.

They further added that while a change to the rate is not imminent, it's likely to be an increase - not a decrease, owing to the improvements in the economy.

"There was no strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy. Rather, members assessed that it would be appropriate to hold the cash rate steady and for the Bank to be a source of stability and confidence while this progress unfolds," the minutes said.

Although policymakers expect further progress in the reduction of unemployment and inflation returning to target, this progress is likely to be gradual, the bank noted.

The Australian economy was performing well with the GDP growing by 3.4 percent and the unemployment rate declining to five percent over the past year, the RBA said.

The bank revised up its economic growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019. Economic growth is expected to be around 3.5 percent over these two years, before slowing in 2020 due to slower growth in exports of resources.

"Taking account of the available information on current economic and financial conditions, as well as the latest forecasts, members assessed that the current stance of monetary policy would continue to support economic growth and allow for further gradual progress to be made in reducing the unemployment rate and returning inflation towards the midpoint of the target," the minutes said.

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NZ Dollar Advances Against Majors



The New Zealand dollar climbed against its major counterparts in late Asian deals on Wednesday.

The kiwi advanced to 0.6813 against the greenback, from an early weekly low of 0.6782.

The kiwi climbed to 76.92 against the yen and 1.6700 against the euro, off its previous 8-day low of 76.44 and a 2-day low of 1.6760, respectively.

The kiwi rose back to 1.0614 against the aussie, after falling to 1.0649 at 9:15 pm ET.

If the kiwi rises further, it may find resistance around 0.69 against the greenback, 78.00 against the yen, 1.65 against the euro and 1.05 against the aussie.

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The Ifo business climate index in Germany fell to 102 in November



According to the Ifo Institute, the mood in German companies continued to decline in November, worsening their business forecasts for the next six months. The business climate index in November, calculated by the institute, fell from the October mark of 102.9 to 102.0. Experts predicted that the figure will be 102.3.

Thus, we can conclude that the German economy is showing signs of cooling, notes Ifo's president, Clemens Fuest. Manufacturing companies are unhappy with the current situation in the country and fear that the prospects for the success of their business are in doubt. However, according to Ifo, the number of companies willing to raise prices has increased.

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Brexit could cut UK GDP by 5.5% by 2030



According to a study by the London School of Economics and King's College, UK GDP could be reduced by 5.5% by 2030 compared to what the United Kingdom could be in the European Union. Moreover, in the absence of a transaction, the growth of the British economy can be from 3.5% to 8.7%.

By making such assumptions, the authors of the study paid attention to the likelihood of the emergence of trade barriers after Britain's withdrawal from the EU and the decline in immigration flow. At the same time, the study was carried out taking into account the preservation of Great Britain in the customs union, but exclusion from the single market.

Experts also believe that Brexit will entail an increase in regulatory barriers to trade not only in goods but also in services. Also, the deal will mean a restriction of freedom of movement between countries, which will lead to a reduction in both skilled and unskilled workers from other countries.

Together, all these factors will lead to the fact that the growth rate of the British economy will be lower than 1.9-5.5% , if the country remained in the EU.

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Australia Company Operating Profits Rise 1.9% In Q3



Company operating profits in Australia were up a seasonally adjusted 1.9 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2018, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.

That missed expectations for an increase of 2.8 percent and was down from 2.0 percent in the three months prior.

Inventories were flat on quarter, missing forecasts for an increase of 0.4 percent and down from 0.6 percent in the second quarter.

On a yearly basis, company profits were up 13.5 percent and inventories gained 1.6 percent. Wages and salaries were up 0.9 percent on quarter and 4.3 percent on year.

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RBA Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged At Record Low



The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday decided to keep its benchmark interest rate on hold at a record low citing sluggish wage growth and low inflation.

The board of the Reserve Bank of Australia, governed by Philip Lowe, voted to maintain the cash rate at 1.50 percent. The interest rate has remained at the current level since August 2016.

"Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time," the bank said in a statement.

Policymakers observed that the low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. Policymakers expect further progress in the reduction of unemployment and inflation returning to target, but this progress is likely to be gradual.

The Australian economy is performing well with the GDP growth expected to average around 3.5 percent for this year and next, the bank said.

Inflation is forecast to pick up in the coming years, with the growth likely to be gradual. The central scenario is for inflation to be 2.25 percent in 2019 and a bit higher in the following year.

Labour market remained strong with the unemployment rate declining to five percent over the past year. As the economy is expected to continue to grow above trend, a further reduction in the unemployment rate is likely, the bank noted.

Concerning property market, the RBA said conditions in the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets have continued to ease and nationwide measures of rent inflation remain low.

The outlook for household consumption remained as a source of uncertainty for the economy, the bank cautioned.

Growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined. Growth in credit extended to owner-occupiers has eased, while the demand by investors has slowed noticeably due to changing dynamics of the housing market, it added.

The RBA statement sounded a little cautious by assessing external conditions to be less favorable, Marcel Thieliant, an economist at Capital Economics, said.

Thieliant suggested that the Bank seemed to be getting a bit more worried about the downturn in the housing market.

Given dovish outlook for the economy and prices, the economist believe that rates will not rise until late in 2020.

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China Services PMI Surges In November - Caixin



The services sector in China continued to expand in November, and at a greatly accelerated rate, the latest survey from Caixin revealed on Wednesday with a PMI score of 53.8.

That beat expectations for 50.8, which would have been unchanged from the October reading. It also moves further above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Also, the composite index jumped to 51.9 in November, up from 50.5 a month earlier.

Individually, November marked the steepest increase in services activity in five months, while manufacturing production remained stable.

Composite new businesses climbed at their quickest pace since June, while inflationary pressures cooled.

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The European Commission presented a plan to reduce dependence on the US dollar



The European Commission (EC) on Wednesday, December 5, published a plan to strengthen the global role of the euro in world markets.

EC Vice President for the Euro and Social Dialogue Valdis Dombrovskis said that Brussels intends to make the euro a more attractive currency for international payments than the US dollar. In addition, it is planned to use the euro more for calculations on the global oil and gas markets, as well as in strategic sectors of the economy.

According to officials, the euro must comply with the political, economic and financial level of the eurozone in order to act as a tool for legal regulation of the international political and economic order.

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Australia Q3 House Price Index Drops 1.5%



House prices in Australia fell 1.5 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2018, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.

That exceeded expectations for a decline of 1.6 percent following the 0.7 percent drop in the three months prior.

On a yearly basis, house prices skidded 1.9 percent - again exceeding forecasts for a fall of 2.0 percent following the 0.6 percent decline in the previous three months.

The capital city residential property price indexes fell in Melbourne (-2.6 percent), Sydney (-1.9 percent), Perth (-0.6 percent) and Darwin (-0.9 percent), and rose in Brisbane (+0.6 percent), Adelaide (+0.6 percent), Hobart (+1.3 percent) and Canberra (+0.5 percent).

Annually, residential property prices fell in Sydney (-4.4 percent), Darwin (-4.4 percent), Melbourne (-1.5 percent), Perth (-0.5 percent) and rose in Hobart (+13.0 percent), Canberra (+3.7 percent), Adelaide (+2.0 percent) and Brisbane (+1.7 percent).

The total value of residential dwellings in Australia was A$6.847 trillion at the end of the September quarter 2018, falling $70.148 billion over the quarter.

The mean price of residential dwellings fell A$9,700 to A$675,000 and the number of residential dwellings rose by 40,900 to 10,143,700 in the September quarter 2018.

Also on Tuesday, the business confidence index from NAB came in with a score of +3 in November - down from +4 in October. The index for business conditions slipped to +11 from +12 a month earlier.

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Singapore Retail Sales Growth Slows Sharply In October



Singapore's retail sales grew for a second straight month in October, but the pace of increased slowed sharply, amid weaker sales in department stores and supermarkets.

Retail sales at current prices edged up 0.1 percent year-on-year after a 1.9 percent gain in September. In August, sales fell 0.4 percent.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales dropped 0.4 percent month-on-month in October, same as in September.

Excluding automobiles, retail sales grew 0.5 percent yearly after a 1.7 percent gain in September. Compared to the previous month, sales fell 2.1 percent in October following a 0.1 percent drop in the previous month

Year-on-year, department store sales fell 3.6 percent, while sales at supermarkets and hypermarkets dropped 2.9 percent. Motor vehicles sales decreased 2 percent.

Sales at petrol service stations logged the biggest increase of 11.4 percent, followed by medical goods and toiletries with a 3.4 percent rise.

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Euro Mixed Ahead Of German CPI



At 2:00 am ET Thursday, Destatis will release German final inflation data for November.

Ahead of the data, the euro traded mixed against its major counterparts. While the euro held steady against the yen and the franc, it rose against the pound and the greenback.

The euro was worth 1.1372 against the greenback, 129.00 against the yen, 1.1297 against the franc and 0.9009 against the pound as of 1:55 am ET.

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Euro Mixed Ahead Of German WPI



Destatis will release German wholesale prices for November at 2:00 am ET Friday. Ahead of the data, the euro traded mixed against its major rivals. While the euro fell against the greenback and the yen, it rose against the pound. Against the franc, it held steady.

The euro was worth 1.1348 against the greenback, 128.89 against the yen, 1.1290 against the franc and 0.9001 against the pound as of 1:55 am ET.

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Turkey Jobless Rate At 19-month High



Turkey's unemployment rate grew for a fifth straight month to its highest level in over one-and-a-half years, figures from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed on Monday.

The jobless rate climbed to 11.4 percent from 11.1 percent in August. The latest figure was the highest since March 2017, when the rate was 11.7 percent.

The number of unemployed grew to 3.75 million persons from 3.67 million in the previous month. Employment fell to 29.01 million from 29.32 million.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate edged up to 11.3 percent from 11.2 percent.

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Franc Mixed Ahead Of SECO Economic Forecasts



Switzerland's State Secretariat for Economic Affairs is set to publish its quarterly economic forecasts at 1:45 am ET Tuesday. Ahead of the data, the franc traded mixed against its major counterparts. While the franc held steady against the yen, it fell against the greenback and the pound. Against the euro, it rose.

The franc was worth 113.37 against the yen, 1.1268 against the euro, 1.2541 against the pound and 0.9933 against the greenback as of 1:40 am ET.

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Euro Little Changed After German PPI



Following the release of German producer prices for November at 2:00 am ET Wednesday, the euro changed little against its major counterparts.

The euro was trading at 127.99 against the yen, 1.1299 against the franc, 0.8995 against the pound and 1.1385 against the greenback around 2:03 am ET.

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Australia Unemployment Rate Climbs To 5.1% In November



The jobless rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 5.1 percent in November, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That exceeded expectations for 5.0 percent, which would have been unchanged from the October reading.

The Australian economy added 37,000 jobs to 12,694,300 last month - blowing away expectations for an increase of 20,000 jobs following the gain of 32,800 in the previous month.

Full-time employment decreased 6,400 to 8,684,600 and part-time employment increased 43,400 to 4,009,600.

Unemployment increased 12,500 to 683,100. Male unemployment increased 11,500 persons and female unemployment increased 1,000 persons.

The participation rate was 65.7 percent, beating forecasts for 65.6 percent - which would have been unchanged from a month earlier.

Monthly hours worked in all jobs decreased 3.3 million hours to 1,759.5 million hours.

The monthly trend underemployment rate increased less than 0.1 pts to 8.4 percent.

The monthly trend underutilization rate remained steady at 13.5 percent. The monthly seasonally adjusted underemployment rate increased 0.2 pts to 8.5 percent.

The monthly seasonally adjusted underutilization rate increased 0.2 pts to 13.6 percent.

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New Zealand December Food Prices Rise Seasonally Adjusted 0.5%



Food prices in New Zealand advanced a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent on month in December, Statistics New Zealand said on Tuesday.

Unadjusted, food prices were down 0.2 percent last month.

In December, fruit and vegetable prices fell 1.1 percent (down 0.6 percent after seasonal adjustment) on month; meat, poultry, and fish prices rose 0.2 percent; grocery food prices rose 0.1 percent (up 0.5 percent after seasonal adjustment); non-alcoholic beverage prices fell 2.6 percent; and restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food prices rose 0.2 percent.

On a yearly basis, food prices were up 1.0 percent in December.

In December, fruit and vegetable prices decreased 6.1 percent on year; meat, poultry, and fish prices increased 3.8 percent; grocery food prices increased 1.4 percent; non-alcoholic beverage prices decreased 0.2 percent; and restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food prices increased 2.9 percent.

"Overall, getting your five-plus a day servings of fruit and vegetables was cheaper in 2018," consumer prices manager Geraldine Duoba said. "Bad weather in 2017 reduced the supply of many vegetables, pushing up their prices. Growing conditions were mostly more favorable during 2018, boosting supply and lowering prices."

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Dutch Retail Sales Growth At 7-Month High



Dutch retail sales grew the most in seven months during November, mainly driven by non-food sales, figures from the Central Bureau of Statistics showed on Tuesday.

Retail sales rose a working-day adjusted 4.1 percent year-on-year following a 3.3 percent increase in October.

The pace of growth was the fastest since April, when sales rose 5.8 percent.

Food sales rose 2.5 percent and non-food sales increased 3.8 percent, largely led by increased demand for consumer electronics, shoes and leather goods.

Online sales surged nearly 20 percent in November.

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British authorities hold power, Nomura sells EUR / GBP



There is a possibility that British Prime Minister Theresa May will resign within a few days after a devastating vote. Still, Nomura does not believe in tough Brexit, waiting for the stabilization of the political situation in the country and the growth rate of sterling. Thus, currency strategists explained the opening of a short position in EUR / GBP pair from 0.8880.

London representatives of the bank reported that the position of British Prime Minister Theresa May looks quite constructive. Her desire to lengthen the term of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and the intention to begin inter-party negotiations on the country's withdrawal from the group will most likely allow the British government to retain power.

If a vote of no confidence is announced to the government, the pound may drop by 3%.

The bank estimates that next week traders will focus on what Ms. May can offer as a backup plan.

Many political analysts believe that the British Prime Minister will once again "stand on his feet." May lost in the House of Commons, but "there is no immediate threat to her position." Theresa May will remain in power, as the Democratic Unionist Party and the Conservatives, who voted against her unpopular EU exit deal, will support her.

Note that Ms. May herself contacted, saying that the British government is already busy searching for an acceptable Brexit plan, which would receive the support of parliamentarians.


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