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Forex Forex News from InstaForex

Discussion in 'Forex Forum' started by InstaForex Gertrude, Sep 5, 2015.

  1. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Active Member

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    The pound is experiencing its finest hour. The main thing is not to let the fervor of the GBP die down

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    By the end of this week, the British currency was in high spirits, confidently moving to the next highs. This time the pound was a winner, although experts warn against excessive euphoria, as they fear further downward movement in the short term.

    On Wednesday, January 19, the British currency edged up against the US dollar, as data showed British consumer price inflation dropped to a 3-month low of 10.5% in December but remains near 40-year highs. Analysts observed that prices for basic services rose to 6.8% from the previous 6.4%.

    The current macro data may force the Bank of England to reconsider its monetary strategy and vote in February to raise its key rate by 50 bps. Against this backdrop, the pound continues to rise against the euro and the dollar. At the same time, the markets believe that the unexpected core inflation will force the Boe to hike the rate (by 50 basis points). According to analysts, the fate of the rate hike will be decided at the central bank's next meeting in February.

    Current British inflation data was within consensus forecasts. This gave a small respite to both the BoE and households, which are now experiencing a cost of living crisis. The recent rise in the pound was recorded after impressive data on the UK labor market. Note that the country's wage indicator hit a record level, which is consistent with long-term inflationary pressures. According to economists, if there are no signs of a decline in service sector inflation in the near future, the BoE will remain aggressive.

    According to the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) dipped to 10.5% y/y in December from 10.7% in November. The CPI continues to retreat from its impressive peaks of December 1981, according to observers. As for the monthly UK Consumer Price Index, it was 0.4%. According to the ONS, core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose 6.3% in December, falling short of projections of 6.6%.

    According to analysts, growing market expectations concerning the peak of the key rate will provide ample support to the pound. The current macro data from Great Britain is of no small importance in this matter.
    According to economists, the December inflation reports showed a slowdown in price growth. However, current data suggests that core inflation remains at a high level, which is far from the target 2%.

    According to currency strategists at Pantheon Macroeconomics, inflation in the UK will fall to 9% in March this year, while core inflation will return to the 2% target by the end of 2023. The implementation of this scenario will allow the BoE to cut rates at the beginning of 2024, experts believe.

    In this situation the pound was rising steadily, taking advantage of a short-term weakness of the dollar and the macro data. On Wednesday, January 18, GBP/USD remained above 1.2300 as a reaction to the release of the British CPI data. Over the previous day, the pair gained 0.15% and remained in an uptrend. On Thursday, January 19, GBP/USD was trading at 1.2343, continuing its upward spiral.

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    However, some currency strategists are pessimistic about sterling's medium-term prospects. Many analysts expect it to fall to 1.1000 in the long term. The reason is the imbalance in the UK economy caused by the negative effects of the mini-budget. Most of these problems are still unresolved, experts emphasize.

    The pound, which approached 6-month highs, was also supported by US macro data. According to analysts, the current economic situation in the US shows that a recession is coming. Against this backdrop, the exchange rate of GBP against the dollar reached its peak since June 2022. Note that the current macro data from the US demonstrated the deterioration of the national economy and opened the way for further easing of inflationary pressures. Disappointing macro data suggest that the Federal Reserve's efforts to get inflation back to the 2% target are paying off. However, a sharp decline in inflation could trigger a prolonged recession, economists warn.

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  2. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Active Member

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    Dollar weakens as US debt rises. Interest rates could go higher than 5%

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    Growing uncertainty has caused US equities to fall, with all three major indices down a full percentage point. Meanwhile, gold rose strongly and almost gained as much as 1.5%.

    The move came after reports emerged that the US already reached the debt ceiling set by the Congress. According to the data, it now exceeds $ 31 trillion, which is likely to force Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to take "extraordinary measures", such as not paying all of the country's bills. It will also prompt Yellen to send a letter to the Congressional leadership, following the one she already sent last January 13, when she urged the Congress to act immediately in order to protect the full faith and credit of the United States.

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    Despite this, Fed officials continue to highlight the need for further rate hikes as it is a key tool to address and lower the current rate of inflation. The bank has announced its plan to raise the benchmark rate above 5% even though recent data indicates that inflationary pressures may have peaked.

    Markets are becoming increasingly concerned because previously, the political administration has been slow to act, either postponing a solution or only proposing to raise the debt ceiling. Persistently high inflation can only make the problem worse.

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  3. ottodickmann

    ottodickmann New Member

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    That is an interesting thread! Thanx!
     
  4. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Active Member

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    The Fed representatives disagree on how to proceed with their positions.

    The US stock market is committed to maintaining its highs from this year. There are those, including the governor of the Federal Reserve System, Christopher Waller, who advocate raising the interest rate by only a quarter of a percentage point at the next meeting in February of this year, despite the pessimistic tone of some Federal Reserve System representatives, including its head, Jerome Powell. Waller believes there is no purpose in quickly hiking interest rates higher and pushing the economy into recession while he awaits more evidence that inflation is dropping and going in the correct direction.

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    He compared the monetary policy to an aircraft that quickly took off and is now prepared for a steady drop, but he also stressed that it is not yet time to declare victory over inflation. In light of this reasoning and the evidence at hand, Waller stated, "I am now in favor of a 25 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting at the end of this month." There appears to be some volatility ahead. He did not say how high he expected the rates to be.

    Other officials, like Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, favored a rate increase of merely 0.25 percentage points at the meeting on January 31–February 1, as I said above. The value of the US stock market will rise as Fed officials' statements become more subdued.

    Premarket

    A semiconductor manufacturer, AMD, saw its shares rise about 3% in premarket trading after Barclays upgraded them from "hold" to "buy," noting that it expects growth potential owing to generative AI.

    After JPMorgan upgraded its rating of online retailer Wayfair from "sell" to "buy," the company's shares increased by more than 12%. The Wall Street business claimed better managerial awareness of cost control and improved trends in acquiring market share.

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    On hearing that activist investor Elliott Management had purchased a multibillion-dollar investment in the leading cloud computing company, Salesforce shares increased more than 5% in premarket trade.

    Shopify. The stock of the e-commerce company Shopify increased by over 5% after Deutsche Bank raised its rating from "hold" to "buy," noting that more and more businesses are expressing interest in Shopify.

    After the Wall Street Journal reported that major banks are collaborating to develop their digital wallets, PayPal shares dropped more than 1% in premarket trade. The wallet will take on PayPal and Apple Pay as competitors.

    Following the disclosure that negotiations to merge Western Digital and Kioxia Holdings are still ongoing, shares of Western Digital increased by 4%.

    Regarding the S&P 500's technical picture, the scenario is still favorable to buyers. The index may continue to rise, but to do so, the support level of 3,961 must be maintained. Returning $3,983 under control will be the bulls' equally important responsibility. Only after that can we anticipate a more assured upward move on the assumption that the trading instrument will strengthen by $4,010. A little higher is the level of $4,038; it will be challenging to surpass it. Buyers are only required to declare themselves in the vicinity of $3,923 in the event of a downward movement and a lack of support at $3,960. Its breakdown will cause the trading instrument to drop to $3,891 rapidly.

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  5. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Active Member

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    US stocks closed higher, Dow Jones up 0.76%

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    At the close of the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones rose 0.76%, the S&P 500 rose 1.19%, and the NASDAQ Composite rose 2.01%.

    Shares of Intel Corporation led the way among the components of the Dow Jones index today, up 1.05 points or 3.59% to close at 30.27. Salesforce Inc rose 4.62 points or 3.05% to close at 155.87. Apple Inc rose 2.35% or 3.24 points to close at 141.11.

    The least gainers were Procter & Gamble Company, which shed 1.92 points or 1.34% to end the session at 141.05. Verizon Communications Inc was up 0.93% or 0.37 points to close at 39.63 while Amgen Inc was down 0.86% or 2.27 points to close at 260. 97.

    Leading gainers among the components of the S&P 500 in today's trading were Advanced Micro Devices Inc, which rose 9.22% to hit 76.53, Western Digital Corporation, which gained 8.66% to close at 41.79. as well as shares of Tesla Inc, which rose 7.74% to end the session at 143.75.

    The least gainers were Xylem Inc, which shed 7.95% to close at 101.42. Shares of SBA Communications Corp shed 3.55% to end the session at 286.27. Schlumberger NV fell 2.60% to 55.86.

    Leading gainers among the components of the NASDAQ Composite in today's trading were Gbs, which rose 293.13% to hit 1.03, Helbiz Inc, which gained 109.13% to close at 0.43, and VERB TECHNOLOGY COMPANY INC, which rose 69.65% to end the session at 0.39.

    The least gainers were Catalyst Pharmaceuticals Inc, which shed 29.04% to close at 14.76. Shares of Atlis Motor Vehicles Inc shed 25.11% to end the session at 3.40. Quotes of Ontrak Inc decreased in price by 21.23% to 0.83.

    On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of securities that rose in price (2196) exceeded the number of those that closed in the red (841), while quotes of 122 shares remained virtually unchanged. On the NASDAQ stock exchange, 2362 companies rose in price, 1346 fell, and 201 remained at the level of the previous close.

    The CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on S&P 500 options trading, fell 0.20% to 19.81.

    Gold futures for February delivery added 0.23%, or 4.35, to hit $1.00 a troy ounce. In other commodities, WTI crude for March delivery rose 0.01%, or 0.01, to $81.65 a barrel. Futures for Brent crude for March delivery rose 0.57%, or 0.50, to $88.13 a barrel.

    Meanwhile, in the Forex market, the EUR/USD pair remained unchanged 0.15% to 1.09, while USD/JPY rose 0.84% to hit 130.65.

    Futures on the USD index rose by 0.01% to 101.79.

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  6. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Active Member

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    EUROPEAN ECONOMIC NEWS PREVIEW: GERMANY IFO BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DUE

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    Business sentiment from Germany and producer prices from the UK are the top economic news due on Wednesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

    At 2.00 am ET, the Office for National Statistics is scheduled to issue UK producer prices for December. Output price inflation is forecast to rise to 16.4 percent from 14.8 percent in November. Input price inflation is seen at 18.0 percent versus 19.2 percent in the previous month.

    At 3.00 am ET, Spain producer price figures are due. In the meantime, Italy's Istat publishes non-EU foreign trade data.

    At 4.00 am ET, Germany's ifo Institute publishes monthly business confidence survey results for January. The business sentiment index is seen at 90.2, up from 88.6 in December.

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  7. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Active Member

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    Forex Analysis & Reviews: Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Silver Commodity Asset, Thursday January 26, 2023

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    On the 4-hour chart of the Silver commodity asset, it appears that a hidden deviation has emerged between the price movement of Silver which is in a bearish channel and the Awesome Oscillator indicator which confirms that in the near future Silver has the potential to fall down to the 23,598-area level. 23,413 as the main target and level 23,165 as the next target to be tested but if on the way to the targets of these levels suddenly Silver is corrected upwards significantly breaking above level 24,105 then all the setups previously described will become invalid and automatically cancel by itself.

    *The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.

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  8. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Active Member

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    UK CAR PRODUCTION FALLS 9.8% IN 2022, ELECTRIC VEHICLE OUTPUT AT RECORD

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    Car production in the United Kingdom declined sharply in the year 2022, as global chip shortages and structural changes hampered output along with weaker exports, while electric vehicle production hit a record high, data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, or SMMT, showed on Thursday.

    Total car production fell 9.8 percent on an annual basis. There were 775,014 units produced in 2022, down from 859,575 in 2021.

    Demand from the domestic market increased 9.4 percent, while that from the foreign market plunged 14.0 percent in 2022.

    Despite facing global challenges, UK factories produced a record number of electrical vehicles in 2022, totalling 234,066 units. This shows a 4.5 percent rise annually to represent almost a third of all car production.

    In December, UK car production slumped 17

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  9. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Active Member

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    Oil prices edge up, and Russia transfers record volumes on high seas

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    Oil is steadily rising in trading on Thursday amid expectations of increased demand. The easing of some quarantine restrictions in China promises the market a recovery in consumption this year, which supports the general optimism in the commodity sector.

    Brent crude for March delivery was at $87.31 per barrel on the London ICE Futures Exchange by 17:39 London time, up 1.38% on the previous trading day.

    The West Texas Intermediate for March delivery was at $81.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, i.e., 1.33% above the final value of the previous trading session.

    Oil prices were also supported by the report on crude oil stocks in the US, which was published on Wednesday. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that the country's commercial crude oil inventories rose by 0.5 million barrels during the week ending Jan. 20. Analysts had expected reserves to grow by 0.97 million barrels.

    Distillate inventories continued to fall by 0.51 million, reflecting the cold weather in the country. Demand for refined products in the US declined slightly over the week, but still remained at quite comfortable levels for current prices - 19.5 million barrels per day.

    Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Russia has transshipped record volumes of Urals oil at sea. According to the agency, a total of 19 million barrels of crude oil are likely to be transshipped in January and December. The report said that volume of such crude is expected to hit a record 14 million barrels in January alone.

    Recall that at the beginning of December, the European Union prohibited the maritime transport of Russian crude oil and petroleum products. In addition to that, following the G7 plan, EU countries agreed to cap the maritime trade of Russian oil at $60 per barrel. Such a sanction measure led to the fact that the cost of freight began to grow rapidly. Vessels that transship crude at $60 and below are obliged to use insurance under the current conditions.

    Bloomberg reported that sources said a fifth supertanker, or very large crude carrier (VLCC), are involved in transshipment of Urals. Three vessels have already departed for Asia, and two more are waiting for departure at the Spanish transshipment point.

    The EU, among other sanctions measures, is also studying the possibility of imposing a price limit of $100 per barrel on Russian diesel fuel.

    The EU is also studying the possibility of setting a price ceiling on oil products from Russia that are traded at a discount, such as fuel oil, at $45.

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  10. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Active Member

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    TAIWAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IMPROVES SLIGHTLY ON STRONGER EXPECTATIONS

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    Taiwan's consumer sentiment strengthened for the first time in five months, albeit modestly, at the start of the year, led by the improvement in the households' perception of the general economic outlook, survey data from the National Central University's Research Center for Taiwan Economic Development, or RCTED, showed Monday.

    The consumer confidence index rose to 59.73 from 59.12 in December. Among the six sub-indicators of the survey, five increased and one declined.

    The biggest improvement was witnessed in the measure reflecting the view on the domestic economic situation in the next six months. The corresponding index added 1.25 points to reach 76.85.

    Sub-indicators for the personal economic situation in the next six months and that for the intentions to invest in the stock market also climbed from the previous month.

    Households also turned positive regarding big purchases this month. The indicator for employment expectations in the next half year increased slightly.

    Meanwhile, the sub-index for the assessment of the domestic inflation in the next six months declined.

    The survey was conducted over the telephone from January 18 to 21 among 2,900 people over the age of 20 in Taiwan.

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  11. InstaForex Gertrude

    InstaForex Gertrude Active Member

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    SOUTH KOREA INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT SLIPS 2.9% IN DECEMBER

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    Industrial production in South Korea was down a seasonally adjusted 2.9 percent on month in December, Statistics Korea said on Tuesday.

    That was roughly in line with forecasts following the upwardly revised 0.6 percent increase in November (originally 0.4 percent).

    On a yearly basis, industrial production sank 7.3 percent - shy of forecasts for a decline of 5.1 percent following the upwardly revised 3.4 percent decline in the previous month (originally -3.7 percent).

    The all-industry index was down 1.6 percent on month and 0.8 percent on year.

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  12. InstaForex Gertrude

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    JAPAN MANUFACTURING PMI HOLDS STEADY IN JANUARY - JIBUN

    The manufacturing sector in Japan continued to contract in January, and at a steady pace, the latest survey from Jibun Bank revealed on Wednesday with a manufacturing PMI score of 48.9.

    That's unchanged from the December reading and remains beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

    The main positive influences on the headline PMI came from slower cutbacks to production and a smaller decline in new orders. January data pointed to only a modest reduction in output levels across the Japanese manufacturing sector, with the speed of decline the slowest since October 2022.

    Survey respondents noted that production schedules were curtailed due to weaker customer demand and more subdued underlying business conditions, especially across the electronics supply chain. At the same time, some firms commented on a boost from improved materials availability and efforts to replenish inventories.

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