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December 08. UK starts vaccination, US buys vaccines

December 8 could be a historic day in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic as the United Kingdom officially began vaccination today. The UK uses a vaccine developed by Pfizer and BioNTech and has reportedly purchased 40 million doses. Pfizer said it could produce 50 million doses this month; production volume in 2021 is not yet clear.

Donald Trump's government purchased 100 million doses of Pfizer's vaccine in advance (enough to vaccinate 50 million people, since each person needs two doses every few weeks). Pfizer then offered a contract for the supply of more vaccines, which Trump refused.

The current agreement between the US government and Pfizer allows for the purchase of up to 500 million doses in the second half of 2021. However, this number is optional. As other countries place their own vaccine orders and Pfizer has a production logistics scheme, the US may not be able to purchase another 500 million doses, even if it wants to.

The question of when and how Americans will be vaccinated is critical, as the country has reached a record 102,000 hospitalizations and the highest weekly death rate. The United States has recorded over 15.3 million cases (200,000 new just yesterday) and over 290,000 Covid-19-related deaths.

The situation with coronaviruses in Europe is starting to stabilize thanks to November lockdowns. France, Spain, Italy, the United Kingdom and Germany are seeing significant declines in the number of Covid-19 cases. Russia is currently the largest coronavirus hotspot outside the US, outperforming even India in its daily statistics.

 

December 09. Brexit talks and coronavirus vaccinations

The term of negotiations between the UK and the European Union is coming to an end, but the countries have not yet reached a new trade agreement. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson traveled to Brussels today to have a business dinner with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and try to find common ground.

Meanwhile, the first alarming news of the effects of the coronavirus vaccine has arrived. Pfizer-BioNTech has begun to vaccinate UK citizens this week, and a couple of mild allergic reactions have already been reported. British health authorities are now reporting that allergy sufferers should refrain from vaccinations.

In addition, a third vaccine from the Chinese pharmaceutical company Sinopharm has appeared, which claims to be highly effective (86%), which is confirmed by data from the UAE. The development of additional vaccines is likely to be an important step in the fight against coronavirus.

As a reminder, the US and the European Union have already reserved drugs produced and planned for production in the coming months by Pfizer and Moderna. Thus, the rest of the companies that developed vaccines will meet the needs of other countries.

 

December 10.2020 - USA, coronavirus and latest economic reports

In the US, the November inflation report was published, which beat the forecast at 0.2%, as well as weekly data on jobless claims, which disappointed investors. The labor market situation in the United States is deteriorating due to the ongoing Covid-19 outbreak.

By the end of the week, 70 million people infected with coronavirus will be registered in the world. In the United States, there are more than 15.8 million patients, of whom more than 296,000 have died. The number of hospitalizations in the country has reached the highest ever.

In the EU, the number of new cases is gradually decreasing. A notable exception is Germany, which despite the lockdown, where more than 20,000 new cases of Covid-19 are detected daily. Brazil, India and Russia also continue to be hit hard by the virus.

 

Meeting of the European Council: 2021 budget

The last meeting of the European Council in 2020 began yesterday. The main topic of discussion is the budget for the next year. At the end of the meeting, it became known how the European Union will spend the money and whether it will be able to allocate enough funds for the Recovery Fund - a special section of the budget dedicated to combating the economic damage from the coronavirus pandemic.

Poland and Hungary have previously questioned the future of the Recovery Fund. The two most right-wing EU countries had a problem with a provision in the funding bill that linked raising funds with respect for the rule of law. Both Poland and Hungary have come under criticism from the EU in recent years for problems in the judicial system, as well as freedom of speech and press. Fearing that this policy would leave them without EU incentives, Poland and Hungary said they would veto the bill.

However, other EU countries have forced these countries to pass a bill and budget plan totaling 1.8 trillion euros. The compromise was due to the clarification that respect for the rule of law would not be retroactive. In other words, Poland and Hungary (or any other EU member state violating this principle) can only be punished for future offenses, and not for what they have already done.

The EU Council summit disappointed anyone hoping for news of Brexit. The question that the transition period ends in less than three weeks is not on the agenda. The UK and the EU are still in talks, Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen said earlier that they have until Sunday to find a compromise. The EU has already developed guidelines for the negative scenario.

 

December 15. Industrial production in the US in November grew better than forecast

According to the report of the US Federal Reserve System, industrial production in November increased by 0.4% versus the previous month, when the indicator was noted at the level of 0.9%.

At the same time, the volume of production is still 5% below the pre-crisis level. Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting an increase of 0.3%.

In annual terms, industrial production in November fell by 5.5%, and in October – by 5%.

Manufacturing production in November increased for the seventh month in a row – by 0.8% versus October. The forecasts assumed an increase in the indicator by 0.3%. In the mining industry, production increased by 2.3%, electricity generation decreased by 4.3%.

Capacity utilization in the US increased to 73.3% in November from 73% a month earlier. Analysts on average predicted a decline to 72.9%.

 

December 16. Bitcoin price has updated a new all-time high

The value of the most popular cryptocurrency, bitcoin, grows on Wednesday evening, exceeding the maximum level of December 2017 ($ 20,042) and updating a new all-time high at $ 20,535.

Bitcoin, like other cryptocurrencies, has risen sharply since October. Digital currencies are rising in value amid optimism in global markets and expectations that the Covid-19 pandemic will be brought under control thanks to the emergence of vaccines against coronavirus infection.

Additional support for Bitcoin is provided by a sharp weakening of the US dollar in the world market.

 

December 17. Bank of England has kept the rate unchanged

The Bank of England at its meeting on Thursday kept its base interest rate at 0.1%, in line with analysts' expectations.

Moreover, the regulator has kept the volume of asset repurchases from the market at 895 billion pounds. The redemption of government bonds at the same time is 875 billion pounds, and the volume of redemption of corporate bonds remained at 20 billion pounds.

The Bank of England continues to monitor the situation around Brexit. London and Brussels are still trying to avoid a shock scenario with the introduction of import duties on January 1. Therefore, keeping the program for buying up government debt securities at the same level should provide the regulator with sufficient «firepower» until the end of 2021.

 

December 18. Brent and WTI: What to Expect from the Oil Market?

Global oil prices are moderately lower on Friday as investors continue to assess the outlook for demand amid news of vaccinations in many countries.

The price of Brent crude oil dropped today to $ 51.17 per barrel, while the price of WTI oil - to $ 48.15. Note that the quotes moved down after four days of growth.

However, despite the optimism associated with the start of vaccination against coronavirus, the epidemiological situation in the world leaves much to be desired. Against this background, an increasing number of countries are introducing additional quarantine measures, which puts pressure on demand. We can say that the news about vaccines is too overestimated, which does not exclude the possibility of an imminent correction in prices from the highs. Recall that Brent quotes reached $ 51.80 at the moment, which was the maximum since mid-February of this year. WTI climbed to $ 48.60 per barrel, which also became its highest value in 10 months.

Additional risks to oil risk are posed by divisions within OPEC + as every exporter would like to take advantage of higher hydrocarbon prices. Do not forget that the organization has decided to increase oil production by 500 thousand barrels per day from January 1, 2021.

 

December 23. Great Britain is on the verge of a trade blockade

UK industrialists fear that the country could face the threat of a food crisis. In particular, the country is facing an impending shortage of fruits and vegetables, and shoppers are lining up at supermarkets in London.

The fact is that due to the mutating coronavirus, a number of European countries have suspended transport links with Great Britain. And now, with food supply chains disrupted, London is on the verge of a trade blockade. Analysts note that the volume of supplies from the European Union amounted to a quarter of the total volume of the previous year.

In addition, port disruptions mean that British meat and fish exporters are unable to ship their goods to Europe. As it is known, the European Union is highly dependent on supplies from Britain. For example, in France there may not be enough fish for Christmas due to blocking of cargo.

 

December 24. US stock exchanges are growing on expectations of state support

Major US stock indexes on Thursday are growing moderately on expectations of market participants for additional measures of economic support in the US. At the same time, the trading volume today is not large, since most exchanges today close earlier than usual in connection with the celebration of Catholic Christmas. Tomorrow is a day off in the USA and Europe.

In particular, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) grew by 0.13%, to 30169.5 points, the NASDAQ high-tech index – by 0.41%, to 12822.01 points, the broad market S&P 500 index – by 0.26% , up to 3699.5 points.

Earlier, US President Donald Trump refused to sign the $ 900 billion package of economic assistance adopted by Congress on the eve of Congress, demanding a revision in order to increase payments to the population from $600 to $2,000 per person.

At the same time, markets are watching with concern the news of the mutation of the coronavirus in the UK, as fears about new serious restrictive measures are growing against this background. And this, in turn, can exert strong pressure on economic activity in Europe and the world.

 

December 25. What awaits the oil market in 2021?

The outgoing year will be remembered for numerous anti-records: a fall in demand by 25%, overcrowding of oil storage facilities and a drop in prices for the first time in history. The reason for such events was the coronavirus pandemic in the world, which led to an unprecedented drop in oil prices: Brent collapsed to the level of $15 per barrel, and for the first time in history, WTI completely went into negative territory, reaching minus $40 (suppliers paid extra to buyers for oil export).

However, experts believe that next year will be more successful for «black gold», and the price of a Brent barrel will remain in the region of $45-55 per barrel. By the end of 2020, OPEC's coordinated efforts to balance the oil market, as well as news of the successful testing of vaccines against COVID-19, helped the oil rise to $50 per barrel.

The demand for oil products in the outgoing year is gradually approaching 97-99% of 2019, but air traffic has not yet been restored. Moreover, the new mutation Covid casts doubt on the imminent opening of borders. At the same time, the world economy continues to grow, which was facilitated by the stimulating programs of central banks. In such conditions, an optimistic scenario for further dynamics of the oil market is still more likely, experts say.

It should be added that the negative effect on demand from the pandemic will come to naught by the end of the first half of 2021, and the OPEC+ deal will remain in one form or another. However, in the unlikely scenario of canceling the agreement to cut oil production, the price of «black gold» may fall to the range of $35-45 per barrel. But, again, this is extremely unlikely.

 

December 29. What awaits European stock market after Brexit?

Experts predict that the European financial market will face big changes after the UK's final exit from the European Union in 2021. The fact is that after Brexit, euro-denominated assets (stocks and derivatives) will be withdrawn from London exchanges, and the long-term consequences of such changes are not yet clear.

The trade agreement between London and Brussels last week does not cover the financial sector. This means that UK access to EU financial markets will end on December 31st. And the consequences of this can be seen already on January 4, the first day of trading in the new year. Analysts also note that the EU wants to reduce its dependence on London for financial services and increase the volume of trading in euro assets in Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam and other financial centers of continental Europe. As a result, the European stock and bond markets will split up, which could result in higher tariffs for investors.

From January 4, EU banks will carry out operations only on the territory of the block and will abandon British platforms (Cboe Europe, Aquis Exchange, Turquoise and Goldman Sachs). According to David Hewson, President of Cboe Europe, virtually all cross-border transactions in European stocks will move to other sites in one day, which will be the largest shift in stock trading in the last two decades.

 

December 31. Senate Republicans blocked bill to increase payments to Americans

Republicans in the Senate have blocked a bill passed by the House of Representatives to increase the amount of incentive payments during the coronavirus pandemic from $600 to $2 thousand.

The head of the Republican majority in the US Senate, Mitch McConnell, said that he did not welcome the intention «to throw more borrowed money into the hands of rich Democratic friends who do not need help anyway.» Other demands of Donald Trump, in the form of an investigation of alleged violations in the presidential elections and establishing the responsibility of social networks for publishing content, the Democrats refused to discuss at all.

We recall that on Monday, the House of Representatives of the US Congress approved an increase in stimulus payments requested by President Donald Trump from $600 to $2 thousand. A day earlier, Trump signed the country's budget for the 2021st fiscal year in the amount of $2.3 trillion. The budget includes a $900 billion package of measures to support the economy in a pandemic.

 

January 04. Bitcoin kicks off the year with a new all-time high

On Monday, the value of bitcoin began to decline after renewing its historical high at $34,543 on Sunday. The current value of the cryptocurrency is $31.632. In the morning, the price dropped to $29,000.

The bitcoin rate began to grow in mid-December, quickly breaking first the 20,000 mark, and then the 30,000 mark.

Analysts do not agree on the future price dynamics. Some believe that Bitcoin has already reached its maximum values, and a price pullback will soon follow. Others predict growth throughout the year, and even maximum values of $100,000.

Recall that the cryptocurrency is based on a decentralized system based on blockchain technology. New blocks of the system are created by its participants using computing devices, mainly video cards. However, the emission is limited by the creators: only 21 million bitcoins can exist, and now more than 19 million have already been created.

 

January 05. Experts named the key risks of 2021

Analysts of the consulting company Eurasia Group named the main risks for the economy, international politics and states in general, which they may face in 2021.

The first line in the ranking of the top 10 risks is occupied by the «divided America». Experts suggest that a huge part of the US population will consider the head of state illegitimate. For example, incumbent President Donald Trump's refusal to acknowledge presidential election results is a unique case in US history that signals a strong internal division in America.

The second risk is, of course, the coronavirus pandemic. Its further development threatens not only the lives and health of people, but also political stability and the world economy. Moreover, the distribution of vaccines can lead to the division of populations and states into haves and have-nots.

The third place in the ranking is taken by the fight against climate change. According to experts, global cooperation in this area can be replaced by competition.

In addition to these three points, the list of risks for 2021 includes growing tensions between China and the United States, difficulties with the international transfer of information and the likelihood of a conflict in cyberspace. Analysts also note the problems in the economies of Turkey and the Middle East, potential political risks in Germany associated with the resignation of Chancellor Angela Merkel, as well as the political crisis in Latin America.

 

January 06. Trump bans transactions with Chinese payment services

US President Donald Trump signed a decree banning financial transactions with Chinese companies. The list of these companies includes corporations that control and develop applications for eight payment systems.

In particular, the ban included: Alipay, owned by Jack Ma's Ant Group, WeChat Pay, CamScanner, QQ Wallet, SHAREit, Tencent QQ, VMate and WPS Office.

Trump explained his decision by the fact that these applications get access to confidential information of users, which can then be used by the Chinese authorities for their own purposes. However, the decree will enter into force only 45 days later, after the president leaves the White House. Moreover, the newly elected President of the United States, Joe Biden, has the power to revoke Trump's decree on the first day of his presidency, that is, January 20.

 

January 11. Oil has renewed its February 2020 high

On Monday, March Brent oil futures surpassed $56 per barrel for the first time since February 25, 2020. During the day, quotations decreased slightly, but still remained above the $55 per barrel level. March futures for the Texas WTI reached $51.56 a barrel.

The oil market began its growth last week, after Saudi Arabia announced its intention to reduce oil production by 1 million barrels per day in February and March. Earlier at a meeting, the OPEC+ countries decided to keep the current production restrictions. At the same time, Russia and Kazakhstan were allowed to increase oil production in aggregate by 75 thousand barrels per day.

Today, pressure on quotes continues to be exerted by investors' fears about the prospects for global economic growth and demand for raw materials amid the further spread of coronavirus in many regions of the world. Traders are confident that a worsening epidemiological situation will inevitably lead to a slowdown in economic activity.

Additional pressure on the oil market was provided by the Baker Hughes report, according to which the number of operating oil rigs increased by 8 units to 275, which corresponds to an 8-month high.

 

January 12. European markets decline amid doubts about vaccine effectiveness

European stocks on Tuesday traded in different directions, reacting to the statements of the US Federal Reserve officials about the likelihood of a reduction in monetary stimulus at the end of this year.

The German DAX index traded at 13.916 today, shedding 0.14%. The CAC 40 in France also declined to 5.654, while the UK FTSE fell to 6.744, shedding 0.66%.

Major global indices have recently shown gains thanks to incentives from central banks and local governments, as well as against the backdrop of the start of mass vaccinations against coronavirus. However, now investors are beginning to doubt the effectiveness of vaccination due to the emergence of new highly infectious strains of the virus.

 

January 13. Bitcoin shows worst dynamics since March 2020

On Wednesday, the most popular cryptocurrency drops in price, showing the worst trading dynamics since March 2020. Since the beginning of the new year, bitcoin has been showing increased volatility: until recently, the currency was updating its historical highs in the area of $42 thousand, and today it is already trading near $34 thousand.

At the same time, JPMorgan bank experts previously said that the cost of bitcoin could jump up to $146 thousand if the cryptocurrency acts as a competitor to gold as a «safe haven».

The jump in the price of bitcoin at the end of 2020 came as a surprise to the markets. The previous sharp rise in the digital currency was recorded at the end of 2017, when quotes rose to the level of $20 thousand. After that, there was a certain lull in the cryptocurrency market, and bitcoin entered a period of a protracted depression that lasted until the spring of 2020.

In the spring, with the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, the demand for bitcoin grew along with the appetite for risky assets amid massive injections from the US Federal Reserve and central banks of other countries.

 

January 14. The yield on Italian government bonds rises due to political chaos in Rome

The yield spread on Italian and German 10-year government bonds reached its highest level in a month amid political turmoil in Rome and slowdown in economic growth in the country – 116 basis points.

Italy has faced political chaos after the party of former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi left the government, stripping the ruling coalition of its parliamentary majority.

As a result, the yield on Italian government bonds rose by 4-7 basis points. The underlying 10-year yield rose 6 basis points to 0.617%.