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“No Winner” in Trade Battle, says China



The BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) leaders will have a three-day meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa. According to China, no nation could be declared as the winner in the global trade dispute, as Chinese President Xi Jinping appealed to the developing countries to refuse protectionism. While South African President Cyril Ramaphosa cautioned about the effect of tariff threats by the American President Donald Trump. The BRICS consists of more than 40% of the world population but never work together as a coordinated economic bloc.

Furthermore, Xi stated that the consolidated expansion of developing countries and emerging market is continuous and will balance more the global growth. In the previous week, Trump spoke that he was ready to set upon $500bn worth of tariffs on all imported Chinese goods.

While South Africa is currently suffering from collateral damage due to US tariffs on steel and aluminum which affects 7,000 jobs, said the country’s Trade Minister Rob Davies. And the attempt to impose an exemption from the US administration ended up failing.

There were 22 more countries expected to participate in the summit this week, 19 of them is from Africa. China pledged $14.7bn worth of investments to South Africa, according to the announcement of President Ramaphosa after the opening ceremony.

 

U.S. GDP to Grow Significantly, says Econ Advisor Kudlow



U.S. economic advisor Larry Kudlow anticipates that the GDP for the second quarter will have a maximum raise. Kudlow was unable to give the specific figures, however, he contradicted the expected range of 4 to 4.5 percent. Moreover, the head of National Economic Council is the most recent official to discuss his viewpoint on economic data prior its publication, which infrequently happens in the White House.

Earlier in June, American President Donald Trump posted on Twitter about his anticipation for the release of the May nonfarm payrolls report, an hour prior the publication. Based on the Reuters survey, economists predicts that the quarterly GDP will reach 4.1 percent for the initial reading. In case that the growth rate will gain 5.2 percent, this can be regarded as the best single-quarter projection since Q3 of 2014 which is also the most significant increase during the presidency of Barack Obama.

Hence, the forecasts continue to show different numbers, as CNBC Rapid Update survey of top economists foresees 4.2 percent expansion and Barclays speculates for a 5.2 percent increase. On the other hand, the New York Fed assumes for a 2.7 percent low end while the Atlanta Fed stands at 3.8 percent.

 

US Economy to Gain 3pc, says Mnuchin



US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin stated his growth outlook for the American economy, he mentioned that the United States is heading for a 3 percent annual increase for many years.

Mnuchin further expressed that it is easy to predict potential earnings for the upcoming years, however, he deems that the ongoing growth supported itself for the next four or five years. He also said that the current administration concentrates on long-term and well-maintained economic performance, as their proposed plans were achieved. This was seen after the 4.1 percent Friday’s GDP report for the second quarter of this year.

 

UK Interest Rates Predicted to Grow This Week



The survey on top economists shows that experts are expecting for the Bank of England to lift its interest rates to 0.25% on Thursday, which would likely put pressure towards house hunters. Based on the poll of the Finder.com on Monday, there were nine economists who agreed that the Monetary Policy Committee will increase its rates during the Thursday’s meeting. The personal finance site mentioned that it’s the first time for the unanimous votes by experts in terms of the interest rates direction since 2007, while they have various responses about the effect of the predicted hike and further economic indicators.

Moreover, the economic figures indicate increasing wages and lesser unemployment rate influences the projected percentage hikes. Nevertheless, homebuyers anticipate for a bounce in their budgets due to wage growth offset led by the mounting costs on mortgages. One-third of the polled economists expressed pessimism towards housing affordability.

Also on Monday, the economic research consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics further projected a raise on Thursday and stated that there could possibly rate hikes in 2019.

 

S. Korea Factory Activity Slump for Five Months in a Row



The factory activity of South Korea declined for the fifth time in July and recorded as the worst drop since November 2016. While new orders and output fell as shown in the private manufacturing poll on Wednesday.

The Nikkei/Markit purchasing managers’ index (PMI) had a downturn to 20-month low at 48.3 last month, compared to June’s 49.8 and remained to be lower than the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction since March 2018. The manufacturing activity was affected by the new orders and output and slumped to its 3-month lows at 47.8 and 47.3, respectively. Furthermore, the data showed that the business confidence shrunk to ten-month low due to gloomy conditions. The output reading indicates notable weakness in the production figures for the month of June.

On the other hand, the instability in domestic demand occurred during the intensive global growth uncertainties as the international trade conflict threatens to affect economies that primarily rely on exports. The sub-index for new export orders had decreased from 52.9 on June to 50.1 in July, which gave hints for the potential marginal increase in new foreign businesses and if such trend will continue, the economic growth might get hurt.

South Korea was also afflicted by the war between the United States and China, as their largest export market, and this further heightened the risks for transport manufacturers.

 

German Factory Output Pick up in July, says PMI



According to a survey on Wednesday, stronger new orders and increased in output supported the development in German manufacturing industry for July. Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing comprises one-fifth of the economy and expanded to 56.9 versus 55.9 in June. Moreover, the July reading coincided with the May’s figures and higher than the 50 line that separates growth from contraction. The figure was below than flash reading of 57.3.

Germany’s economy was able to gain momentum following a soft patch during the first four months of 2018, but the forecasts appear to indecisive due to trade conflict issues. IHS Markit revealed that firms remain optimistic, showing that the level of positivity for the future surge since April..

 

Singapore GDP Growth Down to 3.8%, says MTI



The economic report of Singapore for the second quarter of the year is expected to be release on Monday, Aug 13, at 8am, according to the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI). The survey will further show the final economic growth data for Q2 which includes comprehensive details about employment, growth sources, inflation, productivity, and sectoral performances.

While last month, the forecasts indicated that Singapore's economic growth declined to a one-year low of 3.8 percent in April to June quarter due to escalation of trade uncertainties and slackening manufacturing sector. The expectation came in weaker than market outlook and lower than the 4.3 percent expansion reported in the first quarter this year.

Nevertheless, economists remained consistent with their growth outlook for the whole year despite the remarkably downside risks on the back of increasing tensions between the US and China and the recent property cooling measures.

According to the central bank of the country, Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), the economy is projected to keep a "steady expansion path" last month amid the headwinds brought by trade wars. While in May, the MTI reduced the range estimate for Singapore's annual growth between 2.5 and 3.5 percent.

 

Japan Wage Growth Makes Significant Increase



Wages for workers in Japan had a significant increase in June due to the huge amount of summer bonuses. With this, the people were able to control their money despite the decline of household expenditure for five consecutive months.

Moreover, labor cash earnings increased by 3.6 percent in June 2017 against expected +1.7 percent. Real wages, on the other hand, were adjusted for inflation and showed growth of 2.8 percent versus the forecast of +0.9 percent. Since Japan was supported by the tightest labor markets for decades, wages had a steady growth path since mid-2017 and real wages also begin to rise. This is a favorable news for the central bank of Japan, as the BOJ recently adjusted their monetary policy to sustain the easing programme.

Families will be willing to have higher spending if they were convinced about the continuous pay hikes, which could prompt prices to increase as well as the economic growth development. However, the problem lies with the employers who tend to raise bonuses rather than imply permanent wage hike.

 

South Korea Slow Economic Recovery due to Weak Domestic Demand



The economic recovery of South Korea was restricted by the sluggish domestic demand despite the positive exports, as mentioned by an economic think tank on Tuesday. In a monthly report from the Korea Development Institute (KDI), exports sustained its optimistic growth on demand for locally produced semiconductors. However, the KDI mentioned that domestic demand slightly softened alongside the lagging recovery in consumer expenditure and fluctuation in corporate investment.

While the production recovery was affected by the trend and cooled down aside for several sectors such as the chip industry. Moreover, S. Korea’s retail sales grew by 4 percent in June but below than 4.5 percent expansion in July. While consumer sentiment index versus the economic status contracted to 101.0 in July from 105.5 in the previous month.

 

UK GDP Outlook for Q2 Expected to Double Q1’s Rate



The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of the United Kingdom for the April- June quarter is predicted to double the Q1’s rate with an increase of 0.4 percent. The report is scheduled to be released on Friday, August 10 at 8:30 GMT by the Office for National Statistics.

Compared last year, the UK GDP for the second quarter is projected to grow by 1.3 which is higher than the 1.2 percent growth rate in the first quarter of 2018. The recovery of Britain’s GDP rate to an increasing momentum from the near-zero level combined with the recent reports of the EU in settling the Brexit deal for the UK Prime Minister Theresa May are both intended to cool down the selling pressure of the GBP after its decline to 1.2841 yesterday.

Moreover, the overall development is expected and the British economy sustained its position well below the average growth rate outlook for major advanced countries, considering that Brexit risks affect the expenditure and business investment decisions.

The initial forecast of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) for the UK GDP was issued and showed that the research institute’s GDP Tracker indicates an expansion of 0.4 percent in Q2 of this year and 0.5 percent in Q3. The policymakers of the Bank of England also shows optimism towards the UK, stating that growth would likely remain discreet based on its historical standards but relatively higher than the beginning of this year.

 

US Economy Rose to 3.1 pc: CBO



The American economy is expected to boost by 3.1 percent this year due to increase in government expenditure and tax reductions supported the growth, according to the Congressional Budget Office yesterday. However, the strong expansion may slow down earlier in 2019 considering that the United States may weaken as temporary government policies may elapse based on CBO’s report.

Moreover, the Congressional Budget Office predicted showed that the economic growth will decline to 2.4 percent next year and 1.7 percent in 2020, hovering above that level on the following decade. In case that CBO’s figures coincided with the results, the US economy would likely leap to 3.1 percent this year versus 2.6 percent last year. The mentioned numbers indicate a significant development amid the impact of the Great Recession, with a slackening annual growth rate of 2.2 percent.

 

Strong Dollar Curbs Inflation, Drop in U.S import prices



Import costs of the U.S. were kept the same in July with the surge of fuel costs that balanced out weak prices on other aspects, implying keeping an eye to inflation due to a strong dollar.

The flat reading of import prices revised upwardly to 0.1 percent decline in June as reported by the Labor Department on Tuesday. A decline of import prices by 0.4 percent in June.

Reuters survey of economists is an increase of 0.1 percent in July. Twelve months after, import price grew to 4.8 percent, the highest gain since February 2012, following a rise of 4.7 percent in June.

In the previous month, imported fuels and lubricants rose by 1.6 percent from 1.3 percent increase in June. On the other hand, food costs decline by 1.8 percent from 2.6 drop in June. As for imports prices, excluding fuels and foods, it slid down by 0.1 percent in July after a drop of 0.2 percent last month. Core import prices grew by 1.6 percent in 1 year from July.

The dollar grew 0.5 percent compared to other main trading partners in July and further strengthen by 4 percent on a trade-weighted basis this year, which could affect the expected increase of import goods prices in the background of tension between global major economies and America.

Tariffs on steel and aluminum imposed by the Trump administration to protect the domestic business that was seen to be performing unevenly to the foreign competitors. Consequently, their major trading partners such as the E.U., China, Canada, and Mexico responded the same way with their tariffs.

 

Turkey’s Albayrak Reins Capital Control as Policy Option



Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak of Turkey had excluded controls on capital movement as an option to the policy and urges to strengthen confidence amid conference call held yesterday.

The finance minister further stated that the main priorities were the restriction in inflation and contracting the current-account deficit. The remarks of Albayrak hinted for the economy chief’s thoughts of a dispute against the United States with regards the American pastor detention that displeased financial markets. The lira weakened a quarter of its value within a few weeks as the United States sanctioned the government staffs of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, however, it was able to cut down some losses as the central bank and banking regulators caused higher value in betting the currency.

The Turkish lira was able to grow and currently trades strongly by 3.1 percent at 5.7660 per dollar at 4:46 pm in Istanbul. As Albayrak talked about inflation and mentioned that the central bank itself could not control the price hikes in its target level with the absence of fiscal policy. The economic growth is temporarily steady at 7.4 percent growth in the medium term recorded last year.

 

Business Confidence in UK Decline due to Brexit Uncertainty



The survey issued on Monday showed the lowest decline of business leaders’ confidence towards the UK economy due to the risky effects of the Brexit agreement. Britain is expected to the leave the European Union in less than eight months, however, the government has not yet settled its exit with Brussels and proceeded to plan for the possible failure to come up with an official agreement.

The Institute for Directors (IoD) employers group polled 750 executive leaders and found out that the major trading concern is the uncertainty within the European Union. When asked about the leader's optimism about the expanding economy for next year, the majority of them were pessimistic which resulted the confidence level to reach -16 percent versus -11 percent in June and lower than the positive 3 percent rating in April.

According to the IoD, there was 44 percent of the participants mentioned the uncertainty towards EU’s trading condition which they believe will have an unfavorable impact on their companies. The poll was made on July 11-26 which indicates that respondents had a positive outlook on their own businesses, with a net optimistic forecast of 37 percent but further showed a decline from 46 percent in June.

 

Japan’s Easing of Stimulus Program is Likely Even Before The Target Rate



The economic growth of Japan is getting better which is expected to reduce its huge stimulus program even before reaching the 2 percent target rate as stated by a former Bank of Japan board member, Koji Ishida.

Considering that Ishida was a commercial bank executive back then, he added that the action of the central bank was “long overdue”, affecting the returns of regional banks because of ultra-low rates.

A very low inflation rate induced the BOJ to keep an ultra-easy policy in the past years in spite of the possible consequences of such policies, as well as its banking system.

In achieving the mandate of the central bank by law, the inflation target is necessary in order to stabilize “sound economic development”, as described by Ishida during Reuters’ interview on Tuesday since exiting the central bank two years ago.

Yet, the BOJ would not keep the present policy rates until the inflation target of 2 percent has been reached. Moreover, he said that the central bank will have a “flexible” monetary policy regardless of achieving the target rate.

With looming concerns on very low policy rates, the BOJ allowed loosening their bond yields to be more agile in meeting the zero percent target. However, it may take some time before considering the rates for long-term not to overwhelm the market speculation but instead, they are aiming for a short-term exit from the loose monetary policy, he said.

The central may not rush in curbing the yield curve as of the moment, but it is also apparent that it is possible when the market becomes steady, he added.

 

Japan’s Manufacturing Activity Grew Due To Domestic Demand in August



Japan’s manufacturing activity grew at a bit faster rate in August as the domestic demand increased according to a preliminary survey on Thursday. Although the export orders dropped adding to the problem with the trade protectionism.

The flash Markit/Nikkei Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on manufacturing sector increase to 52.5 on a seasonally adjusted in August compared to the 52.3 figure in July. Figures remained above the 50 mark which puts it apart from contraction for the 24th straight month.

The flash data prolonged the growth cycle of Japan’s manufacturing sector for two years, which has been the longest period since the global financial crisis, as described by an economist at IHS Markit.

Adding to that, he said that the expansion was supported by the strengthening domestic market with the most recent data that came out.

Data shows that export orders increased to 52.6 from 50.9 last month, giving emphasis on the steadfast growth of the domestic market. However, the new export orders declined to 49.3 from a final 50.0 in July, showing a decline in two months.

Real wages grew in June, which was the quickest rate over 21 years, signaling consumer spending to further rise.

The economy progressed at a better rate in the second quarter, boosting a strong household and business spending and further strengthening the domestic demand. Yet, concerns on trade disputes add risk in the manufacturing sectors as it may affect the export demands.

 

France Advised Turkey to Use Economic Policy Tools



French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told Turkish counterpart Berat Albayrak at a meeting on Monday that Turkey should make use of their tools available for economic policy in order to establish a sustainable growth.

Turkish lira had declined by almost 40 percent this year due to concerns on monetary policy as well as the issue of the Christian pastor Andrew Brunson. Moreover, Le Maire mentioned that everyone, including Europe, France, and Turkey itself, that the situation in Turkey will become stable. France further stated that Turkey is committed to structural reforms.

 

NZIER Revised Downward its Growth Outlook



The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) decided to reduce its economic growth outlook due to combined events of slackening population growth, the decline in business confidence and global trade war. However, the demand for residential and nonresidential construction continued to be strong and capacity constraints limit the highest extent of construction activity.

Moreover, the prospect of economists and the Reserve Bank indicates that the official cash rate will remain steady until 2020. Generally, the monetary policy normalization introduced by the United States reflects for the rate increase which is required to allocate among emerging markets.

 

Mexico’s Central Bank Lower Growth Forecast Amid NAFTA Talks



The central bank of Mexico adjusted lower their forecast for this year and the next, based on the report released on Wednesday. Although, the NAFTA trade talks could allay the uncertainty of the economy.

The gross domestic product is anticipated to rise between 2.0 and 2.6 percent in 2018 compared to the previous inflation report of 2.0 to 3.0 percent, which may denote a problem in the future.

Growth forecast for 2019 is around 1.8 and 2.8 percent much lower than the range of 2.2 and 3.2 percent. The fourth quarter inflation is presumed to be at 4.2 percent this year, higher than the former 3.8 percent.

Other than that, the central bank raised its inflation estimates for 2018 and the next close to the 3.0 percent target in the first half of 2020.

For 2019, the central bank increased the inflation estimate to 3.3 percent for the fourth quarter next year than the 3.1 percent previously.

The board said that monetary policy will be adjusted and will continue to do so if the situation demands a more “firm” approach to reach the inflation target.

 

China’s Services PMI Rose in August From an 11-month Low



The services sector in China gained momentum in August following a decline in the previous month, according to the official report on Friday. Somehow this supports the economic slowdown of the US amid the stiff tariffs of Chinese goods.

The official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) of the non-manufacturing sector grew to 54.2 after an 11-month low of 54.0 in the previous month, whereas higher than 50 mark divides growth from contraction.

More than half of the Asian economy relies on the services sector, supported by higher spending power from increasing wages of Chinese people.

The composite PMI, including the manufacturing and services activity, rose to 53.8 this month from 53.6 in the previous one.

Although, it is unforeseen for the manufacturing sector in the Chinese sector in China to rise from a two-months decline while the PMI increased to 51.3 from 51.2 in July.