Roulette G.U.T my opinion.

Gentlemen,
I try very hard to understand Winkel's G.U.T,
but seem unable to really grasp the idea.
Maybe some gentlemen here could help.

I think that...

The law of third,
says most of the time,

ONLY "24numbers/37spins"

thus...


at the 37th spin.

if only 24hit/37spins.

13sleep vs 24hit .





this mean, most of the time,
if we take 24/37 as a parameter,
in 37spins,
hit will be more than sleep,
by 24-13=11time.

the tilt point, is when...
18unhit vs 18hit

thus from 18hit to 24hit=6more hit.

1]if there no repeat in the first of 18hit/18spins,
which possible but, quite low probability,
then 6more hit will likely to occur in next 17spins.
if we assume there will 24hit/37spins

this mean, the risk=6hit/17spins,
which will cause huge losses, if we flatbet all 17spins...and the winning come late!


Where The Risk?

if the
18unhit vs 18 hit,
[with presume 24hit/37spins],
24-18=6 ,there will 6 more hit, at 37th spin.

then to win at least a single hit,
=6hit minus 5 losses=1.
6hit + 5losses=11spins.

meaning we must win 6spin in next 11spins bet!


thus 37-11=26th spins.
this mean if at 26th spin,
the result is 18 unhit vs 18hit,
and we presume that 24hit/37spin, will materialised, then, if flatbet all
remaining spins=11spins, and the 24/37.
then u will win 1spin...presume the winning come late.

Of course if the winning come early, then why bet the remaining bet!?

18hit will normaly materialized after more than 20spins, meaning there will be at least two repeat.
If at 20th spin,
there is 18unhit vs 18hit,
then take 24/37 as parameter.
the risk= 6hit in next 17spins.

below a table of what I think, if we take the average=24hit in 37spins.
With the 18 vs 18 , as the tilt point.

if ..
if 24hit/37 as parameter.
18 vs 18 happend at 18th spin.
then at 37th spin, the risk, will be=6hit in next 19 spins!

EXAMPLE= if 18vs18,
happened at 18th spins=
then37-18=19remaining spin,
the risk will be 6hit in 19spins.

=====================
=====================
if 18unhit vs 18hit happen at....
1]18th spin=then the risk=6hit in next 19spins.

1]18th spin=6hit/19spins.
2]19th=6/18
3]20th=6/17
4]21st=6/16
5]22nd=6/15
6]23rd=6/14
7]24th=6/13
8]25th=6/12 equilibrium
9]26th=6/11 sure win.
10]27th=6/10
11]28th=6/9
12]29th=6/8
13]30th=6/7
14]31st=6/6

above table assume that the wins come late and flatbet.

of course,
1] the win will come early.

2]the above just a risk table if u set the parameter to 24hit in 37spins, which may not happen!

3]u may adjust the parameter to 23,22,20 etc.

What U think?

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http://www.rouletteforum .cc/index.php?topic=15712.0

 

Someone that uses "u" and "U" all the time instead of "you" ? I bet that I know who that is lol.

 

1. The dealer doesn't block a number from hitting after it has hit.
2. The same number of numbers remain on the wheel from one spin to the next.
3. Therefore, the law of the third is worthless, since the probability of winning remains the same at each spin, regardless of what has hit in the past.

 

I'd love to debate this, perhaps in it's own thread.
I can verify and give as many examples as needed that "random" produces patterns, and that those patterns can be "predictable" - "enough" - to give the player some bit of advantage against the house edge (which even though people act like it's some monstrous wall that can't possibly be scaled.... it's really not. Mathematically speaking the house edge in % is incredibly small and not such a monster). If I were to take 5 cents from every dollar you had, you wouldn't consider that a HUGE problem. 5% isn't a unbeatable hurdle, especially when you have a math based game that (even being random) produces patterns.

 

Lets then Turbo. I have looked into this for long time, would love to hear yours (and others) thoughts on the matter.

 

A bit of an advantage is not enough to play in a real casino, unless you plan on living there. You need a good advantage to be able to make real money.

 

Of course it is. The house 'edge' where I play is 0.0526 - which is NOT some huge, unbeatable edge.
Living at the casino is not required. And making "real money" only depends on the size of the unit you bet.
Making $1.00 per visit would be worthless, making hundreds or thousands per visit is certainly "real money" considering the lack of work required. The only difference between one and the other is the unit/chips that you bet with.

 

The law of the third is no more effective than the law of 1 in 38.

At best the law of the third could be used as a crude goodness of fit test of the gaming device (wheel). However the chi square test would be a much better test to use.

 

As have I. But what happens is that the discussion ends up eventually with the "math" people saying things like "the same number can show up 38 times in a row" or "each of the 38 numbers can show up once during 38 spins" which if you strictly follow the "math" of course it could (1 in a trillion tries, but of course it could). If neither of these two things happen (and they don't) then we know that the "law of third" is an actual thing that you can chart and see for yourself, and even use (yes - on future spins). I'm sure a thread dedicated to this would be .... lively. Laughs.

 

No matter what size your bet, if your edge is small you will have a rollercoaster ride in variance, just like they do in BJ. You will have to play and play and play to make money. You might as well live there.

 

Who cares what the mathletes say, they're a broken record. You can't figure out how to win by constantly proving that you can't.

 

@EKAPS,

Yes to hell with the facts, history, the experts, basic probability, math, logic and common sense. What really matters are hunches, nuances, convenience, and fallacies.

 

A fallacy is only a fallacy when it's an actual fallacy. Past numbers can't be used as clues for future numbers, for instance. That's an untrue fallacy. And I can prove it. Give me 12 outcomes from an actual wheel and I'll tell you the next 2 dozens to bet and be right more than 66% of the time. Actuals please, not RNG numbers.

 

Probabilty says that you can't. 24/38 means that you can only about 63% of the time.

 

I said I can prove it. Post 12 numbers from a real wheel and I will predict the next two dozens accurately more than 66% of the time. What do you have to lose.

 

Wow!!!!!!!!!
New set of clairvoyants. This man predicts with assurance. Casinos beware.

 

No casinos, just me and your false claims. I started a contest thread, sign right up and prove me wrong. Looking forward to it, in fact.

 

You are pretty much a childish person. Try your luck with someone else interested into silly things.

 

EKaps,

What is your reasoning as to why it should work?
Do you believe that you have an edge, and if so what do you believe your edge is?

 

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