Sports Betting Game planning for Tennessee-Kentucky

Game planning for Tennessee-Kentucky, and four other things on my mind


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With both Duke-Virginia matchups out of the way, and given Michigan and Michigan State's recent inconsistencies, perhaps the best remaining game of the regular season will take place Saturday in Lexington: Tennessee at Kentucky.


The two teams haven't exactly had similar seasons, despite Tennessee sitting at No. 1 and Kentucky rising up to No. 5 in the most recent AP poll. The Volunteers have hovered near the top of the rankings since the start of the season, with their lone loss coming in overtime on a neutral site against Kansasthe day after Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, Kentucky had won 10 games in a row before falling by two on a controversial buzzer tip-in against LSU on Tuesday. Since the season-opening 34-point thrashing at the hands of Duke, the Wildcats have lost three games by a combined five points -- and have played themselves into SEC title contention.


Saturday's matchup between the two teams will go a long way toward determining the SEC regular-season champion and how solid Tennessee's projected 1-seed stands.


With the help of several SEC coaches, let's break it down.

Individual matchups

There are two key head-to-head battles that other SEC coaches are looking forward to: Kentucky's Ashton Hagans versus Tennessee's Jordan Bone at point guard and PJ Washington versus Grant Williams up front.


Hagans took over starting point guard duties in early December, and Kentucky hasn't looked back. Meanwhile, Bone's emergence into one of the nation's top point guards has taken Tennessee up a level.


"That's going to be an important matchup," one SEC assistant said. "Hagans is one of the better perimeter defenders in the country, and Bone is the best point guard in the league. Hagans can disrupt Bone a little bit. He guards and puts some pressure on him. Can Bone get to his spots? Is it a 16 [point] and six [assist] night? As Jordan Bone goes, Tennessee goes. Everybody talks about [Admiral] Schofield and Grant Williams, but Bone is the best pro prospect on that team."


In the frontcourt, Washington's string of performances over the last month has put him in discussion for All-American honors and established him as a surefire first-round pick. Washington is averaging 20.7 points and 8.6 rebounds over his last seven games.


Williams has been a mainstay in the Wooden Award race, highlighted by a 43-point effort against Vanderbilt last month. "Grant Williams is going to see multiple dudes," an SEC coach said. "He'll see EJ Montgomery, he'll see Nick Richards. PJ will be able to stretch the floor. ... Kentucky can throw multiple bodies at Grant."


How Kentucky deals with Schofield

Tennessee could have an advantage with Admiral Schofield on the wing. At 6-foot-6, 240 pounds, Schofield is going to be a nightmare for anyone on Kentucky to handle. Schofield's offense has cooled off somewhat in league play, with his shooting taking a slight hit both inside and outside the arc. We're not seeing the 20-point performances we saw with regularity in the nonconference schedule -- headlined by a two-game stretch in which he scored 30 against Gonzaga and then had 29 points and 11 rebounds against Memphis.


Kentucky generally starts Tyler Herro and Keldon Johnson on the wings, and Schofield could be too strong and powerful for either one. "He's a mismatch for Keldon Johnson, Herro or any of those guys," one coach said. "You're going to have to guard him with one of those bigs, PJ Washington, one of those guys. How they manage the matchup with Schofield [is key]."


Experience versus youth

This is the biggest contrast between the two teams. Tennessee's top six players are all juniors or seniors and have played together for three or four years. In fact, the Volunteers have played just four minutes in SEC play with a freshman on the court, with walk-on Brock Jancek seeing time in three double-digit wins. In other words, they won't be fazed by the Rupp Arena environment.


"Tennessee's biggest advantage will be their depth, experience and toughness at all five spots," one SEC assistant said.


On the flip side, that same assistant coach said Kentucky's inexperience hasn't really been much of an issue for them this season, due to coach John Calipari.


"They have played with a target on their back all year, and the stage won't affect them," he said. "Having Cal mentally preparing them will be their advantage."


Who wins the battle in the paint?
Both teams are far superior inside the arc compared to the perimeter. Tennessee gets 56 percent of its points from 2-pointers, most in the SEC. The Volunteers shoot 58.1 percent inside the arc. On the other side, Kentucky is the best in the SEC at defending 2-pointers. Meanwhile, Kentucky gets 54 percent of its points from inside the arc, second most in the SEC. And Tennessee has the second-best 2-point defense in the league. Something's gotta give.


Then there's the battle on the glass. Kentucky is the best defensive rebounding team in the league and one of the elite offensive rebounding teams nationally, and Tennessee has struggled somewhat on the defensive glass.


"Kentucky's depth in the post gives them an advantage," an SEC assistant said. "You can go with all four of those guys. Tennessee isn't deep, but they're so efficient. Tennessee can beat you with 2s. They don't need the 3-point line to beat you. If you look at their numbers, they're so efficient in the 2-point area. They all shoot above 45-50 percent from 2s.


"Calipari has these dudes playing out of their mind on the glass. Reid Travis has put an emphasis on rebounding. These dudes are rebounding their tails off."


In such a close battle, what will ultimately win out? Sometimes it simply comes down to home-court advantage.


"It's going to be a heavyweight fight. Two No. 1 seeds," one SEC assistant said. "But Rupp [Arena] is an advantage. When I think of advantages, I think of Rupp."


Four other things on my mind ...

1. THE NCAA'S CHANGE TO the summer recruiting calendar continues to be a debacle. They decided to add two live weekends in June for college coaches to see prospects with their high school teams, as opposed to on the grassroots circuit. On the surface, it was a good idea. In reality, it has been a disaster. The NCAA put the onus on the National Federation of State High School Associations (NFHS) to put the idea into practice, and the NFHS limited the eligible players and schools to just one member association per state.


We broke the story back in December that a large number of high school basketball players are ineligible to be seen by college coaches, as a result of that NFHS decision.


Shortly after, New York, Texas, California and Nevada all decided they would not run events in June due to the limitations -- meaning college coaches won't be able to watch high school players from those states.


I reached out all 50 states plus Washington, D.C., in the past week to find out updated plans.


Here are some of the highlights:

• In addition to New York, Texas, California and Nevada, several other states have no current plans to host or run an event during those June weekends. Those states include Louisiana, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Vermont and Virginia.
  
  
• States expected to host events: Alabama (one day), Florida (two events), Georgia (two events), Illinois (both weekends), Indiana (both weekends), Michigan (annual event since 2009), Mississippi (one day), New Jersey (in planning stages), North Carolina (two events) and Wisconsin (no details yet).
• There will be a one-weekend, multistate event for Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska and Oklahoma from June 21-23 in Missouri.
  
  
• Washington is hosting a multistate event June 28-30 for Washington, Oregon, Alaska, Idaho, Utah and possibly Montana and Wyoming.
  
  
• Arizona will run an event June 21-23 and is opening its event to players or schools from California, Nevada and Utah.
  
  
• Colorado is expected to run a one-day individual showcase on June 23 along with New Mexico and
  Wyoming.
  
  
• There could be a combined North Dakota/South Dakota event.
  
  
• Undecided: Delaware.
  

2. YOU'LL SEE MANY COACHES wearing a light blue pin on the sidelines this weekend, and there's a great reason for it: It's the annual Coaches Powering Forward for Autism weekend, and the pin is the Autism Speaks puzzle pin.


The program was created in 2014 by Towson head coach Pat Skerry and South Florida assistant coach Tom Herrion -- both of whom have sons with autism -- with around 82 college basketball coaches and broadcasters wearing the pin. By last year, the number grew to 375 coaches, and they're expecting more than 400 coaches to don the pin and raise awareness this weekend.


"It's pretty cool to turn on the TV and see so many outstanding coaches and programs supporting a cause that is close to both Tom and I," Skerry told me earlier this week. "Coaches at times get unfairly bashed for a lot of things, but I've always found that when you ask guys to support, they step up and help and we are appreciative of that."


3. A WEEK AGO, I looked at some NCAA tournament-caliber teams with poor road records. But in the spirit of not focusing on solely the negative, here is a handful of teams with surprisingly good road records. (It wouldn't surprise anyone to find out that Duke and Tennessee are unbeaten in road games, and Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Gonzaga, Nevada and Houston have just one road loss.)


LSU: The Tigers are now 6-1 in road games after going into Rupp Arena and beating Kentucky on Tuesday. Their lone loss on the road was to Houston in December -- with all six wins coming in SEC play. Georgia, Alabama and Florida are the remaining road trips.


Louisville: The Cardinals have one of the best road wins from any team this season, beating North Carolina by 21 in Chapel Hill. They also beat Virginia Tech on the road and racked up three other wins away from home en route to a 5-3 road record.


Syracuse: Oddly enough, four of the Orange's seven losses this season heading into Wednesday night have come at the Carrier Dome. They are 5-1 in road games, including January's shocking win over Duke and a late-November win at Ohio State.


Maryland: The Terrapins have three road losses this season: at Purdue, at Michigan State, at Wisconsin. That's nothing to be ashamed of. Mark Turgeon's team is 5-3 in road games, with four of those wins coming in Big Ten play.


Ohio State: The Buckeyes' recent form should keep them away from the heart of the bubble, but their road record could be a nice boost in seeding. It's buoyed somewhat by November road wins at Cincinnati and Creighton, but they also tallied three road wins in the Big Ten.



4. IT'S STILL DIFFICULT to get a read on Cole Anthony's ultimate destination. The nation's top-ranked uncommitted player, Anthony is down to six schools: Notre Dame, North Carolina, Oregon, Georgetown, Wake Forestand Miami.


For most of the past few months, this has been thought of as purely an Oregon versus North Carolina battle.


Recent whispers, however, make it seem that it's not that cut and dry. Anthony is looking to have the ball in his hands from Day 1, and though he will likely get that chance at any of his destinations, Oregon will bring back senior-to-be Payton Pritchard and Carolina has freshman star Coby White on the roster.


Could Wake Forest or Georgetown or Notre Dame have a chance here? My money would still be on North Carolina, especially with White's stellar play giving him momentum as a potential first-round pick in June, but it not might be the done deal it was thought to be in recent weeks.

Source.