Craps Hedging Inside Place Bets Advice

Hey everyone. I'm new to the forums and new to the game of craps. I've been watching quite a few videos trying to learn the game and some betting strategies for an upcoming cruise that I have planned. My main goal when gambling at a casino or cruise is to get time at the table for fun and entertainment more than trying to win big. I guess that would make me what I understand to be called a "comps player", where I'm looking for free stays or free cruises.

I wanted to ask for feedback/advice on a modification/combination I've thought about regarding a strategy I've seen online. I'm sure it may already be a strategy with a name, but nothing I've ran across.

Come-Out: Bet $25 on Don't Pass Line.
Point Established: Place $22 on inside numbers (5on5, 6on6, 6on8, 5on9).

Replace any place hits and pocket winnings.
Press if you want after you've pocketed $25

 

I've seen that on YT.

The DP bet loses 49.3% of the time. Every time that happens, you will have to win nearly five Place bets to make up for the DP loss.

Not easy to do, considering Place bets lose at a higher rate than Don't bets.

Try playing it for free on the Wizard of Odds site.

 

I have a program called WinCraps Pro that is a very powerful simulator. You can program just about any betting system and run thousands of rolls, or you can simulate many separate sessions with stop losses or win goals or both, or a time limit for each session.

I ran 1000 sessions (no progressions) with a starting bankroll of $500, with these stopping conditions:
1) first 7-out after 240 rolls (about two hours' play) OR
2) bankroll less than $47 i.e. not enough to make all your bets

Of the 1000 sessions, 424 came out ahead, 575 behind and 1 broke even.
The mean net was -$38, with a standard deviations of $180.
98.3% of the sessions reached the roll limit, which means your bankroll held out.
Worst ending bankroll was $22, best was $940.
Of the winning sessions, mean was +$131, SD $92.
Of the losing sessions, mean was -$164, SD $115.

I will run a sim based on your own parameters if you give me:
starting bankroll
how long should sessions be (figure 120 rolls per hour)
any win goal
any loss limit

Cheers,
Alan Shank

 

This is very similar to a strategy developed by my late friend Jim Daily, aka "Shootitall," he called "One Hit - Can't Miss." It's quite popular among my followers both on my forum and my private FaceBook Groups. Essentially you place approximately equal bets on the Don't Pass and the Six and Eight. I'll give you an example. Jim's favorite play was a $12 DP bet. Once the bet was established, regardless of the point he'd Place the Six and Eight for $12 each. At this point he had just $12 at risk because if the point rolled he lost his $12 DP bet. If the Seven rolled he lost the $24 place action but won the $12 DP bet. If he got one hit on the Six or Eight he'd win $14 and that made it mathematically impossible for him to lose on the hand. He was guaranteed a $2 win on the hand after one hit. After that Jim (ultra conservative) would just sit back and collect on every hit and never Press the Six or Eight no matter how many times they hit. Now, you would have had to have understood Jim's objective when play craps. It was to play all day on a $300 bankroll, drink all the beer he wanted, shoot the shit with his friends, not lose more than $20 or so for the day and if he WON $20 or so - tip the dealers with it when he colored up. I literally NEVER saw him take a win from the casino because at the end of every session he always tipped the dealers all of his winnings. He was the definition of a class guy.

Now, on to a session I played one morning a few years back at Caesars in Vegas using this play. It was a rare Sunday morning before Covid and as I was walking out of the casino to go teach a craps class I passed a $15 table (unbelievable at Caesars) with just one player. I couldn't resist, so I stopped and bought in for $1K, determined to play One Hit - Can't Miss on the unknown player and my normal strategy on myself. I waited until the shooter made his point before buying in, then played $25 on the DP. He set the Six as the point and I placed the Six and Eight for $24 each. With the OHCM strategy, if the Point is the Six or Eight you still Place it. If it hits you make a profit on the Place bet, so it's all good.

Right off the bat this shooter hit the eight and it paid me $28. I had a $3 guarantee. Fat city. Off to the races. Now I'm only going to give you the results on the Sixes and Eights he rolled (only one Six) and not any of the other numbers, which were plentiful on this hand.

First 8 - paid $28 - $3 profit
Second 8 - paid $28 - same bet - $31 profit
Third 8 - paid $28 - pressed to $42 - $10 change - $41 profit
Fourth 8 - paid $49 - same bet - $90 profit
Fifth 8 - paid $49 - pressed to 90 - $91 profit
Sixth 8 - paid $105 - same bet - $196 profit
Seventh 8 - paid $105 - pressed to $180 - $211 profit
Eighth 8 - paid $210 - same bet - $421 profit
Ninth 8 - paid $210 - dropped $30 pressed to $420 - $391 profit
Tenth 8 - paid $490 - same bet
Eleventh 8 - paid 490 - press to 900 - $401 profit
Twelfth 8 - paid $1050 - same bet - $1451 profit
Thirteenth 8 - paid 1050 - press to $1800 - $1601 profit - NOTE - this 8 rolled hard and I bet a $100 Hard Eight our of my payout so deduct $100
Fourteenth 8 - paid $2100 - PLUS this was a Hard Eight Repeater for an additional $900 - $3000 payout - total profit now $4601
Next toss - Seven Out - and I WON my $25 Don't Pass Bet on the Six. Total win $4626.

Now, for you math checkers, I may have made a mis-calc somewhere along the line up there. Don't hold it against me. I'm doing this by memory on the fly while juggling a couple of other tasks but the gist of the report is correct. The shooter tossed fourteen Eights and no Sixes in that hand and I won over $4600 in less than 30 minutes that morning. I didn't hang around to toss the dice. I just colored up and hit the road, as I had a class to teach and I was running late for it.

This is NOT the kind of win you can expect with OHCM. This was a lightning strike. It just goes to show that a strategy that it designed as a GRIND system CAN kick off a huge win if you approach the game with a pre-planned press strategy and don't hesitate to implement it when the opportunity presents itself. I frequently say "all it takes it bankroll and balls," but in this case it didn't even take much bankroll. Less than $75 for a 60X win.

 

This shit doesn't work. Might as well just but lottery tickets!

 

This shit doesn't work. Might as well just but lottery tickets! - JBS the Troll

Comments like this from trolls like JBS are exactly why this craps sub-forum has seen something like six posts in the last year. No one want to post here because they don't want to be hassled by idiots, flamers, and shit-birds. It's been like this for years. The people who run this site let the cyber-bullies run the real players off and they never came back. This is exactly whey my "Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum" has been successful for over 20 years in total, and for 13 years on its current platform. First, we charge a nominal one-time registration fee to keep spammers, flamers, and shit-birds at bay. Spammers won't pay to register on a forum so they can post their fake viagra and porn spam. Flamers typically won't either because they have to make a payment via PayPal, which means they have to reveal their true identity and these dickwads want to hide behind their computers and be anonymous. In truth, they know nothing about advantage play for craps. Most don't even know the game well enough to answer a handful of questions I use to test dealers on THEIR knowledge of the game. Secondly, we highly moderate the site. If anyone DOES post something that violates our Terms of Service their post is immediately 86'd and they're given ONE warning. If they repeat the offense they're history. Their membership is deleted and they and their IP are blocked from the site.

The Axis Power Craps Forum has a small base of 700 active members and an archive of over 70,000 posts dating back to 2009 - all on the game of craps - including topics like dice control, betting strategies, roll tracking software, dark side play, casino hook-up planning, trip reports, casino conditions, and much more.

I also run two private FaceBook Groups. Both require screening before you can become a member. I don't accept members with new accounts or from individuals with obviously fake names unless I know who they are. I vet all new members personally. They have to agree to a specific set of rules regarding behavioral standards, and if they violate those rules they're immediately 86'd from the group. We don't allow spamming, flaming, hate-speech, cyber-bullying, or any of the nonsense you see in public, relatively un-monitored forums like this. I have around 2000 members in my Axis Power Craps Group and around 1000 in my Wrong Way Craps (dark side) Group. Everybody gets along and there's a ton of great info shared by all.

It's amazing how well things work when there's some sort of "rule of law" instead of what amounts to anarchy in a group. But it's always been like this here - going all the way back as far as I can remember. I doubt that it will ever change. No doubt the name-calling will commence next.

 

I wonder if the Heavy allow the free, fair, open debate on his forum as to whether or not the dices-settings is viable and a legit form of advantaged play, hey hey????

 

The effect of those place bets along with your DP is to increase your expected loss and your action (for comp purposes), while reducing your volatility. The reason your expected loss goes up is that 1) you are making more bets; and 2) the place bets on 5/9 have a 4% house advantage, more than double that on the DP and place 6/8. The volatility goes down because the place bets act as a partial hedge against the DP bet.

I ran your system for 1000 4-hour (480 rolls) sessions and compared it with the same number of session using just the $25 DP. The below figures are averages of the 1000 sessions:

$25 DP w/place $22 inside $40 DP, no place
Bet handle: $5064 $4608
13% bust $35% bust
avg. net -$94 -$60
Standard deviation $248 $421
W-L-even 353-645-2 408-564-28

Volatility is a double-edged sword: it means wider swings, so you are more likely to bust your bankroll, but at the same time it increases your chance of a winning session. Note that the $40 DP had more busts but also a much better percentage of winning sessions. Lowering volatility tends to keep you in the game longer at the cost of reducing your winning chances.

You might consider place the 6 and 8 for $12 each and staying away from the 5/9; it reduces your expected loss while increasing your action a bit.
Good luck,
Alan Shank (goatcabin0

 

Kudos to the moderator for addressing the off-topic and disruptive posters.

Alan Shank is absolutely correct when he mentions the loss of comp credit in many casinos when you cross hedge with Don't Bets vs. Do Bets. This is particularly the case when you play the Doey-Don't - a ridiculous strategy where you play equal size Pass Line and Don't Pass bets with the idea that you're going to get both bets established then play the Free Odds wager thereby avoiding the house edge entirely. This is, of course, a strategy based on a fallacy. Both bets are exposed to the house edge. So in a $25 game you're paying a 1.41% house edge on the Pass bet and about a 1.4 house edge on the Don't Pass bet. A total of a little over 2.8% house edge. Why? Because the 12 is a PUSH on the Don't and the Pass still loses. The only way to overcome THAT problem is to bet a buck on the 12 craps, but that carries and even higher house edge which reduces your so-called "advantage" even further. Worse still - you are rated a ZERO bettor by the casino. Some casinos, such as the M Resort in Vegas, will only let you play the Doey-Don't is one of the bets is larger than the other. The "spread" between the two bets has to be equal to or greater than the table's minimum bet. In other words, in a $25 game you must have at least $25 "at risk" to play.

One of the variants some players try to get by with on the One Hit Can't Miss is to play a $25 Don't Pass with $12 each on the Six and Eight. This works great if the seven rolls immediately, because you still win $1 on the Don't bet. However, it requires TWO hits on the Six or Eight to put you ahead on the right side. However, you CAN make this bet and then (I do not recommend this) REDUCE your DP bet by $10 after the first hit on the Six or Eight. Then you'd have $15 on the DP and $12 each on the Six and Eight. You'd have $14 locked up so you only have $10 at risk on the right side. If the Seven rolls you win $5. If the Six or Eight roll you win another $14. But if the POINT rolls and you lose $15 but the net loss is only $1 because of the previous $14 win. Your regression on the DP saved you $10. It's a grind, but that's the kind of play you're talking about. If you're pinching pennies that's how you have to think.