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Blackjack How do I translate PE into WLP?

Discussion in 'Blackjack Forum' started by Tater, Sep 29, 2021.

  1. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    Secretariat writes:

    Hi Norm, Don and Gronbog. I have much respect for you guys and I am well aware of the fact that not doubling down may increase W/L/P but far from me the idea of taking away EV, on the contrary. The idea is to add EV with optimal card play to whatever count one is using.

    Here's what we know about blackjack. Humans can bet perfectly like a computer, can play insurance perfectly like a computer but cannot play their cards perfectly like a computer. So how efficient can one be at playing his cards in terms of W/L/P? What is the upper limit? What do you guys know about W/L/P of the top systems?

    To my knowledge, Gronbog has run the most complex simulations ever with the three different Tarzan counts and I tought he knew that his W/L/P was (but Gronbog you also say you don't know W/L/P). If Gronbog knows Tarzan W/L/Ps I understand it is confidential information that belongs to Tarzan to reveal it or not but the revealed T-counts SCORES did beat Hi-Opt II mainly because of card play and not because betting.

    And I suspect that Tarzan is even better at the tables than his SCORES indicate because of simulation programming limitations. He probably is the human who did take solo blackjack to its top level.

    To me there's not such a thing as a small improvement. You improve or you don't.

    I was hoping you could give us an answer as to what is the optimal W/L/P that you have seen in sims and what was the count used.
     
  2. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    You seem like you know your way around CVData. Go to Nuances when setting up your Sim. Then select Data and check the boxes. Then go to sessions and fill out the Barriers boxes.

    You will see you results under Misc. Session Data I after the sim ia complete or while going. Most likely, it will correlate with SCORE.
     
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2021
  3. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    Secretariat writes: To me there's not such a thing as a small improvement. You improve or you don't.

    Tater says: I determned, from this exercise, what improvement are worth changes and what are not.
     
  4. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    Secretariat writes: Well, I am not a complete idiot, Norm. I would not hesitate to double down my 12 against dealer 5 when the deck composition is appropriate! redface-new.png That being said, I'll try to go deeper into mastering CV Data.

    Tater says: I dont know of any count, other than a Tarzan count or column count that will provide this info. You can use variations to a column count. But without deep pen? It's overkill. Tarzan may be different.

    Key is getting the most out of each session and winning a higher percentage of sessions based on strategy, count selection, and casino tolerance.

    Short of buying a home in Gronbogs neighborhood, CV Data sessions is as close as you are going to get.
     
  5. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    21forme is a funny man. But he has a point.

    Go to Hands after your CV Data sim is complete. Review the Percentage of hands dealt.. First two cards. You can also look at win %. loss %. and push %.

    Perhaps from there you can determine whether doubling on 12 is worth while.
     
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2021
  6. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    Secretariat writes:
    Showing what the 4-5 best SCORES (systems) yield in terms of WLP would endw this discussion as far as I am concerned.
    But it looks like I will have to find out on CV Data and my limited ability with it.

    Tater says: Yesss. You do. Play the game with peace of mind or the game plays you and takes a piece of your mind.

    Session win% and SCORE and simplicity are your key barometers.

    Get to work. :) You can do it. It's only you who can.
     
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2021
  7. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    Secretariat writes:
    I have been involved in sports performance all my life and I have never seen a coach or an athlete
    say that winning a shift, a point, a play, is unimportant. Why blackjack should be different?

    Tater says: Ditto. I get it. A Tarzan count player came to my home a few years ago. Extremely bright guy. To this day, Im not so sure it wasnt Tarzan himself.

    At one time, I think Tarzan was training and maybe selling his system privately?

    Personally, I found more in what I could remove from a column count to be more efficient than adding more. But that's in single deck straight up with limited rules, pen, and spread.

    In short, I devised my game around casino tolerances and then determined it was worth my investment of money AND TIME.
     
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2021

  8. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    Secretariat writes: OP was not about this hand. It was not even about doubling down. It's been steered that way but with the proper side count (s) it's possible to take advantage of many "improbable" situations when they arise.

    Tater says: Will it go round in circles by Billy Preston

    I know you think you are going to get some answers. Been there. Done that.

    The answer is "in" you. And can be found in CV Data. But it's not easy. And takes alot of work. Been there. Done that too.
     
  9. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    I also want to learn Tarzan count
    You say that now, but you probably don't want to learn T count. I've tried to teach a couple of people the technique, and it's obvious that it's not something the general public is going to be able to contend with, just as had already been predicted by Don S. to me long ago. There is a worst case scenario, in which you don't master the count and all it's nuances, but instead fall back to some sort of bastardized version of it that is less effective than learning HiOptII or something comparable to begin with that takes much less effort to master.

    T count is fairly fucking awesome, but difficult to learn. I could perhaps find a way to disguise myself, my voice, etc., perhaps dress in drag so I'd look a lot like Margaret Thatcher, and do a proper demonstration of it in a video for the academic amusement factor. Trying to teach it to any extent becomes out of the question, though. There's no benefit to me to speak of, more negatives than positives, and a potential for it being of no benefit or even detrimental to those trying to learn it if they are unwilling or unable to go the whole enchilada on it.

    Tater says: Well said.
     
  10. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    Don S see things in black and white. Ive played for hall of fame coaches who do that also. So I get it.

    Tarzan is the ultimate competitor. He wants to win every hand. Of course, he doesnt. But he has done everything in his power to put him in the best possible position to compete.

    I can do black and white and try to win every hand. But the game will be playing pick up sticks with my butt cheks "outside" the casino quite quickly.

    So YOU have to design a strategy that works best for your particular situation. Im not saying it's easy. I am saying, if it can be done? It can be done with CV Data. But only you can determine how bad you want to be good and it's worth your investment of money and TIME.

    Is your time better spent doing something else? Most likely, the answer is yes.
     
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2021
  11. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    NORM writes and is correct: The point is that maximizing WLP is a poor idea. Calling the responses that make this clear "sarcastic" doesn't help.

    Tater says: Sec is just a wee bit confused in his thought process. Been there. Done that. Playing "kick the can" will do far more good than harm.

    Why not focus on maximizing the percentages of your large bets as opposed to the small ones? So to Norm's point. There is a balance and that is defined with SCORE.

    I'm surprised no one has referred you to Nuances (describe earlier) in CV Data.

    Suppose there is a 15% difference in SCORE between a Level 1 count and a complex count.
    One might think their income is only going to be 15% less. So why do the extra work?

    However, your session wins are 55% with a Level 1 and 60% with a more complex count. This section is like a stew. What you put in is what you get out. I can't tell you what you like. NO?
    THIS is why it is utterly stupid to think one can build a good game ONLY bY asking questions on a forum. ZEE.

    SO for easy math purpose. You play 20 sessions a week and 50 weeks a year. You win or lose $1000 per session. At 55%, 11-9 that is a $2,000 PROFIT per week. Or $100K annually.
    At 60% is only 5% more? NOT so fast my friend. 12-8 is $4000 a week. OR $200K ANNUALLY. THE DIFFERENCE of 5% in sessions or 15% in SCORE actually doubles.

    I have a ton of experience in comparisons. THE higher the SCORE the higher percentage of session wins. NOW you can put a financial result to your strategy. WHICH is what you were trying to do in the first place. NO?
     
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2021

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