Baccarat How to Spot a BAD System

The following is an excerpt from the book I wrote on Progressive Team Gambling. I sold my entire inventory to Huntington Press, and so no longer make money from its sale. I mention this only because I did not want anyone reading this to think my motive was profit based. Quite the opposite! I ran across my notes for this subheading and thought I might save the folks on this site some money. The road less traveled is often a better choice...not always. Especially if it is a road that should NEVER be traveled by anyone.

The prevalence of wrong thinking on this forum is so distressing to me, I actually find it hard to log on.

This comes from the end of Chapter 2 of my BOOK.

I hope this helps at least one person.

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Look, Up In The Sky. It’s a Bird; No, It’s a Plane; No, It’s a System!

We’ve covered perception and how you should look at it. We’ve covered most of the common
misconceptions that abound in casinos. You should now know what “random” is and be able to judge
probabilities correctly. We’ve even covered some of the sociological, physiological, and psychological reasons why so much wrong thinking is the rule and not the exception throughout the world. I have done all in my power to set you upon the straight and narrow path to true enlightenment, and even if you grew up sheltered from this knowledge your entire life and this was the only book you ever read that covered these important topics there should be enough information within these pages to reverse your confusion and at least start you thinking along the right lines. I really want you to understand the truth and be able to distinguish fantasy from reality for yourself.

I have a hot news flash for you. Not everyone you meet will be so kind. Our very brains are designed to look for patterns where there aren’t any, and some less than savory people unfortunately know this. Instead of trying to help you correct this ingrained human deficit, they will try to take deliberate advantage of your failings and scam you with…

"
THE SYSTEM”​

“The System” is to gambling what “The Scenic Route” is to traveling though Europe. When asking directions, if you hear these words you may never see your family or friends again. Conversely, when asking people for gambling advice, if they say they have a system, you may never see your money again. Also the phrases, “You can’t miss it, it’s the building with windows” or “You can’t lose” translate to, “You can miss it” and “You’ll probably lose.”

When traveling, you’re always better off if you don’t have to ask for directions, and the same holds true for gambling. Learn the math, and reach your own conclusions. Don’t trust your fate to anyone that could have a self-serving motive to mislead you. Keep in mind, if their system is guaranteed to win, why aren’t they just playing it themselves? I have certainly applied everything you’ll read in this book. I am an active player even now, and I don’t need your money to play. I’m doing just great on my own, thanks.

There is only one situation in which a Pro would ever need an investor to finance them, and that is if they found a Play that was beyond their bankroll capability. Even in that event, it is unlikely that you would give them any money to play with for themselves. More common amongst true pros is paying them a finder’s fee, or an offer to take a piece of their action. (Win & Loss)

Here are two simple lines of questioning you can ask yourself to help spot any subterfuge or deception you might run across:

1. Does this idea come from any type of play result?

a. Remember, the past is never a determiner of the future. Statistical math is NOT used in real professional gambling.

b. Winning at something is no indication of correct behavior. No amount of success means anybody did anything right. If they try to show you how they have done in the past, just walk away.

c. Beware of any records or statistical data. Statistical math is worse than useless in gambling—it’s often deceptive.

d. Record keeping is fine, but don’t change your behavior based on the past.


2. Can you determine, without playing or analyzing play results, exactly what you’re expected to make?

a. There is no room for personal interpretation in true gambling concepts—it should all be reducible to simple and precise mathematical equations.

b. Anyone should be able to get the same answer using the same equations.

c. Instead of having someone explain their system, have them explain the math that led them to it, and run the numbers yourself. You can apply this advice to anything you hear in a casino. You can apply these questions to any preconceived ideas you may now possess. You can also apply these questions to anything you read in a book. You may even like to apply it to what you learn in this book. If anything doesn’t meet these criteria, I would be very reluctant to put my faith in it. Trust only what you can calculate yourself, and doubt all else.

Why settle for faith anyway, when with just a little more work, you can have absolute certainty?

“Everyone always acts in his or her own perceived best interest. Unfortunately, that perception is often distorted.”

~ Dan Paymar​

This chapter was for the sole purpose of dispelling as many of those distortions as possible. As I said at the beginning, it’s a very large subject. One with the very great benefit of clear thought for studying it.

As many illusions as possible hopefully dispelled—I think we’re finally ready to begin covering the three W’s and start teaching you, how you can, and the teams did, beat the casino.

~FK 2008

 

Whereas I agree with your concept, the math can NEVER be broken despite how you try to beat the casino. There will always be a potential sequence of hands that can beat you. Whether or not that happens will just depend on where you are in the gambling universe and hope you do not bump into that event or sequence.

Now, with systems...if someone is guaranteeing you a no loss system then that is when you need to run. Gambling is never guaranteed. Ever! If you go in knowing that you COULD lose but feel comfortable enough with a system, I think that’s half the battle. Confidence in your play is a big mental aspect of the game. If you don’t think your system can work or you’re scared, then don’t play.

Finally...everybody has their own “system” or method of play or strategy or whatever you want to call it. So to downplay “systems” is not completely fair. If there’s a way that I play that works for me, then that “system” is alright. I think maybe if there’s someone selling their system that makes claims that are completely outlandish, then sure, stay away, just as I mentioned above with the “guarantee”. But if someone is selling something where they feel it can help you and not claim it’s the Holy Grail, then I guess that’s up to you and your due diligence to determine if it’s right for you or not.

I personally have spent tens of thousands on systems even those “guaranteed” and find something valuable in all of them. There are too many people that are looking for the easy way out that they rush in and just jump into play without testing their new knowledge and feel it’s automatically a scam. But to each their own.

I understand your basic premise but I am the half full guy and feel like any information about baccarat or heck any game is worth examining. The cost of obtaining that information is something the individual has to weigh in order to determine their course of action of whether or not to acquire said information.

That being said, thanks for posting this excerpt. It was nice to read.

 

Great post Frank. But sadly on this forum, it'll fall on deadf ears.

One thing you should add though that many of these systems players do. "If your system really works, why are you always changing something with it?"

 

Great post, btw how can I get you a copy of your book?

Anyway, I'm sure as hell that baccarat BP bets are substantially beatable itlr only by disputing the real randomness of the live results and there are many strong evidences to confirm that.
Situations favoring mathematically one side or the another are too few and far between.

Then, if the past is never a determiner of the future, why all side bets are mathematically beatable by card counting the past in order to assess the future? Not mentioning bj card counters...

as.

 

Anyone who spent a few years with Baccarat knows that.There is no Holy Grail. To play this game you need a REFERENCE or a REASON to make a wager. That is where the Fallacy World comes in. Learn as much ways or systems to play but some people market their systems with ridiculous claims. Testing is for the sake of execution and can never be a measurement for your system to work, Each person has their own DESTINY.
Many might not agree with me but my winning strategy with any system is Lots of Charting with Hit & Run. Win a little but longevity persists.

 

A bad system is a style what ain't pure mechanical, objective and can be replicate by any or most any old cat. A bad style is one that rely on all kinda subjective jumbu-mumbo, hits and run, and other nonsenses, foolishness and absurdities, hey hey.

 

You are Right ONLY if the game is + EV. Then they will be REAL strategies to win. With -EV openly going to battle with the casino will never win.
You are talking about beating the game with Bet Selection with no Stop Win/Loss. People can only envy you. Peace!

 

The hit and run strategy represents the perfect negation of a possible player's edge.
You'd run from what? Are you getting a higher percentage of hitting spots?
So stay and play, waiting for next favourable opportunities, you'll make a lot of money then.

You've provided good insights in your posts, but the hit'n'run strategy cannot be heard.

as.

 

A great opening post. A must read.




ND

 

On paper, Hit & Run makes no sense. Practically, it does. Just to be fair. Experiment with it. Use a 5 Marty and win just 1 unit. See for yourself whether you can win in the long run. Remember you have to chart and only bet where you have to bet and not want to bet.

 

Thank you. After re-reading chapter two of my own book... (sucks to get old) I realised that I had referenced a host of things that I'd talked about previously in the chapter. I'm not entirely sure anymore that the post works as a standalone comment. If you liked it in anyway, I'm pleased. To clarify, I define a "system" as any method of gambling based on results and something other than future predictive probability.

BETTER DESCRIPTION (With Stupid Example)

If you determine that a fair coin has two sides and that it should come up heads half the time and tails the other half. Not a system!

If you determine that in the course of flipping that fair coin 4 times in successive trials that it will only come up 50/50 37.5% of the time. NOT a system!

If you flip the coin even once, and start trying to figure out anything about the coin based on what you have flipped--SYSTEM


NOTES:
4 Heads: HHHH
3 Heads: HHHT HHTH HTHH THHH
2 Heads: HHTT HTTH TTHH THTH THHT HTHT
1 Heads: HTTT THTT TTHT TTTH
0 Heads: TTTT

As you can see, there are 5 combinations and 16 possible permutations, but only six of those give the result of two heads and two tails. Though this 50/50 distribution is the most likely single outcome when compared to the total number of outcomes, it represents only 37.5% of the total number of possibilities. Here we have our quandary. If we follow this logic to its eventual conclusion we begin to understand that,

“In the actualization of probability, things should not happen the way they are supposed to happen, and usually the most probable outcome isn’t the most likely.”

 

LOL...yes I have experienced this quandary. I have missed out on a lot of opportunities, because if I didn't understand the math I simply passed.

It can be both a strength and a weakness.

I will NEVER be one of the lucky 1 in 1000 that succeeds at a course of action that had a .01% chance of success...

 

Question #1: How do you get a copy of my book?

Answer: I have no idea... I do not try to buy copies of my own book. LOL... Hunting Press, bought me out last year.

My book is almost entirely on progressive Jackpot math and of no relevance to baccarat...other than its general references to misconceptions.

Question #2: Then, if the past is never a determiner of the future, why all side bets are mathematically beatable by card counting the past in order to assess the future? Not mentioning bj card counters...

Answer: Card Counting is different from seeing past results as predictors of the future. Systems that record RESULTS (wins or losses) of the banker or player seem to have no mathematical basis in fact whatsoever. They are an artifact of our brains seeing patterns in randomness. Systems that record the actual CARDS that are missing from the deck, which obviously CAN-INFLUENCE future outcomes, might plausibly be efficacious.

if someone has a system that involves removed-from-deck-cards, which mathematically predicts a bias in the winner of future hands, (OR THE TIE) I would have not be able to confirm or refute it. If it were on MYTH BUSTERS, I would rule it, "plausible".

That sort of MATH is what I lived on the last 30 years.

My issue with baccarat players is that they seem to be obsessed with who won the last hand, which is, for lack of a better term, pointless information. What cards are out of the deck? OH YEAH--THAT MATTERS!

Peace be with you!

 

You have touched upon a topic that is "dear" to my heart. By dear, I mean that I have written MANY articles trying unsuccessfully to disabuse people of the notion that one can alter their results by leaving a casino ahead. The most famous article I wrote on this topic was, "Catching The Tabula Rasa Fairy". Instead of posting that I will instead post a lesser known article I wrote for the BlackJack Insider News Letter, entitled "The Very Special Theory of NOT Relativity".

(DROPBOX LINK TO PDF FILE)
https://www.dropbox.com/s/keagqdkbj2kj5ue/The Very Special Not Theory of Relativity 2019.pdf?dl=0

I do not expect you to agree, but please understand that if you disagree, I'm not all that interested in arguing about it. I have learned over the vast expanse of time that if people get it, they get it. If they don't "get it" no amount of discussion ever changes anything...after a lot of therapy and a few shots of Islay-Scotch I'm fine with that.

Peace be with you...

 

When I read this I couldn't help but think of the scene in "Airplane II" where they went into the cargo hold of the space shuttle, and saw barrels which were successfully named:

1. Flammable
2. InFlammable
3. Explosive
4. A Must See

Omm...shantee

 

I would like to disagree with you, but only on the veracity of old cats. My 23 year-old has never been wrong about anything... Just ask him, he'll tell you.

 

I have a question:

1. Is "5 Marty" short for "five-martingale"?

2. If so what is that exactly? (I know what martingale is, but not with a # added)

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Your comment that "Practically, it does." is in my opinion good advice...but perhaps, not for the same reason you are giving it. I do however agree with you...

(PLEASE DISAGREE IF I'M WRONG)

If one is not sure of their mathematical advantage in a game of chance, "systems" that limit their ability to lose LARGE sums of money quickly, are never a bad thing. Bad is still bad. But a little infrequent bad isn't going to ruin your life. (Example: Suzie--[miss you]) {yes that was an inside joke} |NO I WILL NOT EXPLAIN IT|

 

I'm deeply amused by the implication of this answer.

It reveals the absurdity of the conclusion made by the awareness of the author that wrote it.

Let's break it down so that this can be shown.

This: "seeing past results as predictors of the future"

There's that same old tired assumption again. It's the same lame conclusion made by the mathZombies that don't want to understand what is being communicated to them.

They think it is a magical belief that past results are a claim of the power of prediction by delusional gamblers. And when they are shown that it is something entirely different they refuse to see it. They stick their claws in and fight back that they are right. So they don't mind being blind when it comes to listening as long as they are right.

You see. They are not about to consider that past results might have another use. In fact the human brain's ability to see patterns and trends might have a non predictive use. This is the place where they shut off their ears and refuse to listen. It must be a psychological defense mechanism. I've never been able to help a mathZombie reach past this point. They always go back to "it must be about a claim of prediction." There has never been an admission by any "prediction" claimer from the mathBoyz squads that trends and patterns are anything more than a claim of the ability to predict the future. Perhaps today there will be a difference.

Patterns and trends can be used to identify win streaks and losing streaks. At no time in this process of tracking results is there an effort to uncover signs of prediction. If your brain has let you listen this far then I hope that your memory capacity also allows you to retain this. If you see a pattern like singles on the weak side continue for 30 spins in a row. All that you have is a potential win streak. You could be a moron and bet the wrong way, resulting is a lost segment of the 30 spins. It takes skill to bet this phase of spins the right way.

First, there is no prediction that you will succeed if you bet the strong side skillfully. It's a calculated risk. You picked up on the singles on the weak side after 10 spins into the 30 spin stretch that occurred. You used this meaningless illusion in your brain to skillfully place bets at the right time as long as the meaningless illusion continues. You have no idea how long it will last. But you will certainly make more than break even on it if you win at least two net wins before the first lost bet occurs as the meaningless illusion ends.

You see, the trends and patterns identify win streaks if your timing and skill are right and you catch one that lasts for a while longer. It's a calculated risk to try to win with them, not a magical prediction. On the very same notion your timing and skill can seem to backfire on you and all your bets lose. This happens also. But a skilled player that uses meaningless illusions from the brain to beat coincidence knows how to get off of a losing trend fast enough not to reverse session expectations.

I too have no interest in arguing with people that think trends and pattern use is a magical prediction capability. I prefer them stuck with that anchor around their necks. You can see them coming from a mile away and already know that they think they know a secret truth.

Stop being a mathZombie. Let's end that trend.

 

Are there mathZombies (to borrow the term from Giz) who make money from the game and are playing the game for a living?

Or at the computer writing theories for dissertation and then concluding a -EV game cannot be beaten? Or still formulating to come out with a system, good or bad? Or writing theories about the ‘idiots’ of trend or anti trend believers?

As if coping with the stress of managing a real bankroll is not enough at the tables, I cannot bear coping with formulations of epic proportions....

Not prompting a debate here, just voicing my thoughts

 

Like I said Frank, it'll fall on deaf ears. Nothing you post will change these ploppies minds.