Baccarat I see that I am going to start some controversy

Hi,
First of all I have been at this for a very long time. My observations are not on testing but real life playing (put your money where your mouth is).
First of all fixed system playing will not work in the long term. It does not matter how you twist it if it is fixed it will fail.
The odds are not a factor in short term play. They only matter in truly large number play 1m and up (and a 1M being small). The real advantage to the house is players loosing control and alcohol. That is better than their odds.
Progressions are all doomed. (once again you can twist it to make it look different, BUT)

The shoes do not matter, the cards do not know a beginning or an end. Whether you are playing at a live table or online makes no difference. Recording the outcome is what you actually see. It is a constant stream of events. You can ignore ties, they have no impact on the next occurrence. The way a hand is won is meaningless (a 9 over 8 is as good as a 1 over 0).

If you take two possible outcomes and look at two events then there are only 4 possibilities, the entire shoe is just a combination of those two events. Players make short term observation and then write them in stone.
If I am repeating what every one already knows, then I apologize. But I have been reading some strange things.

 

You speak the truth!

 

I am happy to see that you are educated in the art of a baccarat player.
All the main table games are no different than baccarat. If you reduce it to a two decision event and record the patterns you cannot tell the difference.
Roulette ( red or black)
Craps (pass /don't pass)
blackjack ( player/dealer, just cannot bet on the dealer)
all the same patterns just cost of commission is different and rate of play is slower.
(and the chairs are more comfortable on the larger baccarat tables)

 

3 questions for you Rz:
1. What game do you play?
2. How long have you been playing it?
3. So for all other players gambling less than 1M per hand are okay?

 

Rz10000: WHAT REASONS DO YOU MAKE THIS ASSUMPTION, AS THERE BEING A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN OUTCOMES ON THE SAME SHOE. IF I AM BETTING $100 PER HAND OR 1M PER HAND, THE OUTCOME WILL STILL BE THE SAME.

IF YOU ARE TRYING TO SUGGEST OVER THE LONG TERM PLAY.... PLEASE EXPLAIN YOUR THEORY?

 

In a live casino I would play the mini-baccarat table, it is faster and has a lot less distractions (on the full size game player sometime tend to unite on a hand and when you go against them and win it cause discontent) The money is better on the full size but extremely slow and it wears me down.
I have played since 1985, I lived in Lake Tahoe, Las Vegas, Atlantic City and Biloxi for easy access to the casinos.
I played online with the European casino until 2006 when access was restricted and I am presently back to the online. Money limits are smaller $1 to $1000 but can still be very profitable. Playing is very relaxed.

I am not sure what you are asking about the last question. When I referred to 1M, I was talking about large number theory and where the odds start to become more accurate. They really do not tighten up until about 10M hands where the error rate become smaller. In short play which is what every player sees the patterns start to look unique and it is very easy to start thinking that a pattern will not occur. If the outcome is possible it will occur. The problem with a lot of players they look at a few thousand shoes and think that is accurate for the odds, it is NOT.
A player will never see the odds. you are dealing with a biased bell curve and it is easy to be on either side of that bias. (house odds).
Stats have no place in the small amount of decisions that a player sees.

 

1 million refers to the number of events NOT MONEY. You are 100% right the money has no bearing.

 

I apologize for me dumbing this question down more to my level, but are you saying that it doesn't matter if you play red/black in roulette, pass/don't pass in craps, or player/banker in bacarat odds are the same just rate of play (turnover) because no one will ever play Long enough to see the true odds approx 45% for roulette and approx 48.5% for bacarat/craps etc???

 

Think of the odds against you as the commission you pay to play the game.
If you play roulette as RED or BLACK you loose to the 0 or 00 that is your commission cost
the red/black is 50/50 the commission cost is higher than other games and the time for a decision is longer.
That is what really determines which game to play.

Now if you use a fixed betting system you have to look at what it looses to and how much you will loose when it happens and then how often will that occur. It is nice when you can go a month and not take a hit but it will happen.
A player in a year of play is still in small numbers and he is playing against a pattern occurring. If your system give you an advantage in a year of play it will show up.
I had a good friend that was an advanced blackjack counter in Atlantic City (he is deceased now so I can say this) his advantage was 0.9%. He played 6 days a week for 12 hours. His average bet was $300. Over a three year period he was down as much as
$345,000 for as long as 4 months and would average $780,000 a year profit. These were the records from the casino he played at. They put up with him because he lent money to "Friends" that would stop over because they knew he was there. His "Friends" would play at that casino with what they borrowed. They lost on average $5,000,000 a year. He was a good investment for the casino. He had the discipline to carry that kind
of loss without panicking and also had the bankroll to support it.

 

Thanks for sharing that story and it's similar to want soxfan said in one of his posts (that opened my eyes) of his bet banker only holy grail. That proficient blackjack players go months in the red before they recover etc your story supports that. He had like and 80 unit downswing before recovering... flat betting.... He's averaging something like 1.2 units a shoe after commission playing his bet banker only over 15k+ shoes ..something like that... It's another interesting thread here .. he never gave up his secret bet selection but gave plenty of clues...

 

Congratulations, you make the scene on here and right outta the gates you show you are absolutely clueless about the baccarats proposition. Are you any relations to the al-relax, the limey or the asym-bac whacks-job, hey hey????

 

Yes....the Soxman wakes up and is on his Alrelax hunt lol.

RZ
Don't mind soxman, he's just crabby from playing and testing tens of thousands of shoes in his B only no coconut method.

He attacks almost everyone..maybe except punkcity...lol

 

Yes, he kind of jumped right into the mix. I guess I should check what posts I am allowed to read.

 

That’s right, the result doesn’t care what you bet , your age colour or sex.

The result is just that. A result.

The individual and the collective viewers muddy the waters with the biases or interrogation of the result being correct or incorrect. Cheers

 

Read what you want , there is no thread or post that ANYONE is mandatorily excluded from. Everyone is free to participate in all threads , just be mindful you don’t intentionally or unintentionally hijack a topic being posted about. You will see example of such various threads. Cheers

 

Lol or Jacob blaze. Cheers

 

I think I clarified that in an earlier post. The 1M referred to number of decisions (hands) NOT money. You are also very correct. The money has no bearing on the outcome of the decision. As far as your reference to sex, if she is smiling and very cute, I might have to pay the dealer to influence the decision to let her win!

 

Cheaper to just buy/ rent one by the hour. Lol

 

But she is genuinely smiling and excited, with the rental that costs extra.