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TurboGenius Informational : What are your chances of winning ?

Discussion in 'TurboGenius's Forum' started by TurboGenius, Aug 16, 2020.

  1. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Occupation:
    Self proclaimed Theoretical Philosopher
    Location:
    Near Atlantic City New Jersey
    I'll begin with a question.

    If you bet a single number for 36 spins - what are your chances of winning ?

    In reality, your chances of winning are 2 out of 3 roughly.
    For every 3 tries (cycles) - you can expect to win (on average) 2 of them.

    To prove this, you can do it yourself -
    Play the numbers in order for 36 spins ( I used 36 spins because a win on spin #36 causes a "break
    even" result )
    If you get a win, restart your count and stay on the same number.
    If you don't get a win, move to the next number and start your count again.
    As you'll see, it will take about 100 cycles to complete the entire table - and of those
    100 cycles - you will win 2/3 of them.

    1[1].png

    Flat betting :

    2[1].png

    105 games happened because 5 had to be continued in the next session... it ended up being
    100 complete sessions as the chart shows.

    So how many in a row did we win ? 11 in a row which happened once.
    How many in a row did we lose ? 3 in a row which happened 4 times.

    63% of the sessions produced a win, 37% produced a loss.
    The streaks of wins outnumber the streaks of losses.

    ================================================

    This is informational only, use as you see fit. (or don't).

    Thanks for reading.
    Cheers
     
    GaryG, Punkcity, chewtoy and 6 others like this.
  2. chewtoy

    chewtoy Member

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    Hi TurboGenius !!

    Thanks for this new information, it looks very interesting ! I think to fully understand the data I would need to know in which order you bet the 37 numbers, it looks like you didn't start from the 0 to the 36 but you chose them randomly ?

    I always love to study your roulette analysis, I understand more and more how to play it with success. I hope to meet you one day, I could invite you to a restaurant !

    Cheers
     
    TurboGenius likes this.
  3. chewtoy

    chewtoy Member

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    Never mind I resolved the little problem I had understanding your post, now I got what you did. thanks !
     
  4. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Troll tag team one accounts head , Skipptophia.
    I’m sure he’d settle for a signed avatar as imho it’s brilliant and as previous post by me I think the name chewtoy is equally brilliant, good to see you post again. Cheers
    How’s that for substance less posting, neat how it just dribble off the keyboard pretty soon the substance policeman will crack and cut a swathe of hypocrisy laden bile to a post near us all . The interverse will be in melt down to the admin guys and gals , but nevertheless chewtoy I think your avatar is the best and if I wasn’t such a substance less person of anger and loss I would have loved to have thought of it myself. Oh well guess I’ll just have to remain one dimensional, haahaa cheers.
     
  5. chewtoy

    chewtoy Member

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    Thanks Punkcity,

    Funny reading you !

    I did Turbo's test and got similar result, ended up positive but its all a matter of getting the right number of RIGHT winning sessions.

    When you do a loosing session you always end up loosing 36 unit, so 1/3 of all of the session you'll loose 36 unit. to make up the loss you need to have an average win for all the winning session of 18 unit.

    Do you agree ?

    xx
     
  6. Blacksmith

    Blacksmith Member

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    Could some kind of a parachute strat not be used to assist the selected number:

    Found this one on VLS ROULETTE FORUM

    Parachut Lvl 6

    Bet 1 unit on Outside bet (like colors): -1
    Bet 1 unit on Outside bet (like colors): -2
    Bet 1 unit on Any Docen: -3
    Bet 1 unit on any line: -4
    Bet 1 unit on any line: -5
    Bet 1 unit on any line: -6
    Bet 1 unit on any corner: -7
    Bet 1 unit on any corner: -8
    Bet 1 unit on any corner: -9
    Bet 1 unit on any street: -10
    Bet 1 unit on any street: -11
    Bet 1 unit on any street: -12
    Bet 1 unit on any split: -13
    Bet 1 unit on any split: -14
    Bet 1 unit on any split: -15
    Bet 1 unit on any split: -16
    Bet 1 unit on any split: -17
    Bet 1 unit on any split: -18
    Bet 1 unit on any straight: -20
    Bet 1 unit on any straight: -21
    Bet 1 unit on any straight: -22
    Bet 1 unit on any straight: -23
    Bet 1 unit on any straight: -24
    Bet 1 unit on any straight: -25
    Bet 1 unit on any straight: -26
    Bet 1 unit on any straight: -27
    Bet 1 unit on any straight: -28
    Bet 1 unit on any straight: -29
    Bet 1 unit on any straight: -30
    Bet 1 unit on any straight: -31
    Bet 1 unit on any straight: -32
    Bet 1 unit on any straight: -33
    Bet 1 unit on any straight: -34
    Bet 1 unit on any straight: -35
    Bet 1 unit on any straight: -36

    When lose will be 116 numbers bet and fail

    Kind Regards
     
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2020
  7. Rinad

    Rinad Active Member

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    Mr Turbo , you mentioned in your graph that we lost 3 in a row 4 times, did you mean 2 in a row 4 times ? just wanted to pointed out, mistake probably. thx.

    Rinad
     

  8. Platton

    Platton Active Member

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    No 3!
    I also didn't understand why 3 at first, but then everything became clear. 3 because before these two we also lose the first time on the other number!
    Here's a look. The first time it was when the number 6 first won 1 time, and on the right all numbers have a loss. I.e. number 6 won once, and then it did not fall out during 36 spins. And then he switched to the number 7, which never fell in 36 spins and this is already 2 losses in a row. Then he goes to the number 8, which also never fell during 36 spins - this is 3 losses in a row. And the next number 9 has already been issued 2 times in a row before losing. I.e. before two zeros in the table, there is always a loss of the last number.
    I studied it, too. The truth on my spins from the real wheel was and 4 losses in a row, maybe more, I don't know, because I have not enought spins. But something like that. Of course, everything looks so easy on the RS, it really differs. BUT IT DOESN'T MATTER. What matters is what he shows. What does he show, I haven't figured it out yet? Since the chance of winning 63% is of course very small. Because we still take 100% as a basis in this case, unlike in the dozen, where he said that at a rate of 50% on something we have a chance of 63% on the win, and this is of course an advantage in this case, which also did not give any results so far. And here I don't even understand what this gives us? Any ideas?
     
  9. Rinad

    Rinad Active Member

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    thank you Platton for explaining that , you are 100% right. there had to be a loss before going to the next number. I know that Turbo "s graph is a small sample but I see that single ones are in minority compared to 2 or more hit per winning numbers.
    in other words when I look at the number of single hits there are (8 of them) and the (2 hits and more) like 13. that would imply that within a cycle when you get your first hit on a number you could expect a 'second" hit at least, and that perhaps it would be a good time to double up a unit for another win ?
    i like to run a test and see what happen.
    you were mentioning dozen play.
    I thought the other day of this here.
    if I bet on red (as a example) it is the same as if I am betting on 18 red numbers right ?
    if i bet 18 $ on red , same as if I place 1 dollar on each of the 18 red numbers.
    if I bet 12 $ on a dozen ,it is the same as if I bet 1$ on 12 numbers within that dozen.
    so in either case I get paid the same no matter what .
    but here is a interesting observation.
    I paid 18 $ if I bet on red to win 18 $ , GETTING 18 NUMBERS.
    I paid 12 $ if I bet on a dozen to win 24 $ . ONLY GIVING UP 6 NUMBERS AND NOT HALF OR 9 NUMBERS !
    does'nt it make more sens to bet 12 numbers as oposed to 18 ??? if I get paid double for just 6 and not 9 numbers instead ?
    so is that mean betting on less numbers gives us much more for our buck ? sure seems that way.
    your thought ?
    any feed back welcome.
    Rinad
     
  10. Platton

    Platton Active Member

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    My thought, that I don`t understand what you mean :) Let's go in order.
    Yeah, I agree. That even in this form, progression could make a profit. On the one hand, as someone here noticed that each loss is 36 spins, and accordingly 36 chips, if we play with a flat bet. And to beat these 36 chips you need at least 2 wins, or even more. Because it is not difficult to guess that there is a win, but it may be at the very end of the cycle and will bring only a few chips of profit. Let's take a look at Turbo's graph.
    The first number he had was zero. And it immediately lost, which shows on the graph the first minus below zero. Then he switched to the number one and it won at a certain stage of his cycle, most likely somewhere on the 10th spin, because, according to the graph, it can be seen that it has risen, but not enough to cover the first loss. Then the number 1 loses and shows a new even greater minus. Then he goes to the number 2, which gives him 11 wins in a row and raises him to a new peak in profit. I will not comment on these wins, because then the number 2 loses and he goes to the number 3, which gives him 3 wins in a row! BUT, as we see on graph, all these 3 wins in a row beat only half of the last loss of the number 2. Well, and so on. But I pretended to progress, and yes, you can either increase when losing and lower when winning, or increase when winning, as you say, and the result could be even better. But how to apply it, and what it gives to us, and why does he take and switch to another number I don't understand?
    The only thought that I have, where you can apply exactly this approach with jumping numbers, is in the race tables, where we determine hot numbers. Because even in his first part of these races, he showed something similar. And besides, when I didn't make profit this system of races, I went to read his other works that were at the end of his forum. There were old themes with the cold numbers. The first thing I tested there was a theme with an ideal progression. I killed her for 3 weeks. So it is normal when it goes, and even very interesting to play it. But numbers always come when they sit in a big minus and you still lose. Okay, that doesn't matter. But the second topic was where he wrote that this is a win-win system, where you choose the cold number, and if it does not fall out in the cycle, then in the next cycle you put on it and on another cold number with a rate increase, etc. And it really looks normal. Only in the racing system we look for hot numbers, not cold ones, and I applied this to hot numbers. Which of course gave a much better result. And I should already be trying to play it, but I got sick again, and it didn't work out. And then I switched to the dozen that he posted. In general, I mean that switching to a new number in the racing system can have its own positive result. But I do not yet have the strength and motivation to test it. :artist:
    What you mean in this quote, I don`t understand. And how does this relate to this thread?
    Thanks.
     
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2020
    Rinad likes this.
  11. chewtoy

    chewtoy Member

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    Hey Rinad,

    I think Turbo is right saying it lost 3 times in row, you have to count the one loss from the previous number.

    xx
     
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  12. chewtoy

    chewtoy Member

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    I think playing 1 unique number over 35 spins could be the best strategy in roulette. Around 12 numbers do not appear over a cycle of spins, so it makes sense when the result says we would win 2 out 3 times. If you can find a strong bet selection (repeaters) for that unique number and then optimize when to bet it for 35 spins, I am confident you can win consistently flat betting at this game.

    The worse enemy when playing at roulette is yourself, if you manage to discipline yourself, stay calm and have guts, playing one number is the best option.
     
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  13. Rinad

    Rinad Active Member

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    Platton that dozen post is irrelevant to this thread , I just thought you may have some comments about the comparison .

    R.
     
  14. Rinad

    Rinad Active Member

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    Chewtoy , you from Paris, me from Orleans but here in colorado, salut ! I think you are right, the discipline is key . I played a one number method for years and still does. so you think that attacking unique numbers may have a place besides repeaters ? I dont mind using mild progressions if they are not out of control, nothing wrong with that . if you know lets said 10 numbers are unique from the previous cycle, would you play all of them or just a partial number of them ?
    Cheers,
    Rinad
     

  15. chewtoy

    chewtoy Member

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    I didn't mean unique in that sense, I meant playing just one number, and choosing one that is more willing to repeat within 35 spins.
     
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  16. Rinad

    Rinad Active Member

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    okay I get it, I call unique single number so no problem. I had played a single number once repeated 3 times for a cycle of 38 spins , and did it live on airball machine and live table for 7500 spins. I then did the math and found out that I was getting a hit 1/31 spins . once every 31 spins on average which showed a advantage. Turbo has showned similar figures on his repeater thread.
    if there is one thing that is a fact is that repeaters are worth playing .
    Rinad
     
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  17. Platton

    Platton Active Member

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    Who say about dozen, lol? :D
    I was just asking you about comparing what you provided and how this relates to this thread? :)
     
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2020
  18. Rinad

    Rinad Active Member

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    this thread is about cycle of 37 spins and how each number behave. I gave the numbers that you get more then one hit per average when you do get a hit. that is in the opening thread right ? do you see how it can be a way to take advantage of a winning cycle ?
    the first hit is there to give the timing to play knowing that most likely you could expect at least a second hit . to me that is valid information.
    I know that a lost is 37 units and that it may take a progression to recoup and that to me is no problem.
    timing is there, yet if no hit abort the mission, that simple.
    R.
     
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  19. Rustyshackleford

    Rustyshackleford Active Member

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    been using your system on that sim site but tweaked the system.
    flat bet only.
    banrkoll 500$ min bet 5$
    233 spins later up 410$
    i wait for 25 spins has spun and pick an odd number that hasnt shown up yet and bet it
    back with your advice if no show after 35 spins repeat until double or broken
     
  20. Rustyshackleford

    Rustyshackleford Active Member

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    need something stronger, i believed not betting into that pit trap of not losing 25 spins would avoid losing money right i was but it did not increase my edge/luck factor back down to 360$ on 916 spins so 140$ lost
     

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