Baccarat Just curious why others post Martingale gibberish

Albalaha posted this on other site where I am banned for life but I wanted to comment on it so I will do it here:
"Martingale is the worst mathematical joke ever happened to gambling. It looks easiest to win this way. Even with 1 million chips in hand and allowed on table, it is set to make one lose whatever could never be earned back. I have myself encountered stretches of losses over 20 in number, many times, not once.

Problem is, if martingale is bad, other published MMs are as bad, if one can simulate. Flat bet can not bet in a game of negative expectations for long. Frustrated players find it easy to win this way, being oblivious of bad finish later."

As far as progressions go I agree that Martingale is a poor choice since many are more effective with less risk and greater reward. However I think there are situations where one can use them with success. In all my years and thousands of shoes played I've NEVER lost more than 12 IAR.

Regarding MM: Sure, if MM is some fixed way to alter bet sizes then I agree. But to me MM is subjective. It's used to weigh risk vs. reward and isn't relied upon as some wrote mechanical method. So an example might be freezing the size of a wager in order to slow down escalation or cutting back the size of a wager in order to preserve profits. This is what we do with any kind of investing.

J

 

Friends,
Martingale is truly a joke and anybody relying upon a simple martingale in any manner or upon any trigger is playing with fire and set to lose all just to win 1 unit net profit easily. However, every progression has proportional risk or reward. If any progression wins quicker than other, a net profit, it is also destined to loose more. Flat bet is fool's gold and unless one can achieve a verifiable edge in the bets, it is not even thinkable in games with built in edge for the house. There can be no verifiable edge in a random game, period. No brute force progression can help anybody win, for sure unless one may have billions of chips, maybe. Even if someone has a billion chips and a real unlimited table, only an insane could risk to lose that much for winning 1 unit. I would rather prefer to risk the entire 1 billion in one go on an EC bet.
All known progressions lose but it doesn't mean that one can not make an MM that can help. It is about thinking proactively and out of box. I have almost achieved such MM that can cut across even the worst and still win in an average hit rate thereafter, that too without needing thousands of chips. Problem is, even talking of such things make me a system seller, so I prefer to be as much silent as others are, on different forums. I would only say, it is very much doable to make an MM as I did.

 

Gentlemen ,


Two well stated posts which should be an eye opener to some people .


There are many other options to play the casino games than to rely upon this method of chasing losses .

 

Anyway, I don't hear or see of anyone playing Martingale on this site or any others. Glen says he trolled other sites and many players are using Martingale. Rubbish.

I got no disagreement about Martingale. I am interested in how MM is defined. It seems that albalaha and Glen define it as a strict non-subjective method with some definite rules that are particular to a certain chosen style of play. Therefore two people playing the same "system" using the same MM will bet exactly the same. But that's not how I see MM at all.

Today at Foxwoods I was speaking about this with a pro player. He plays full time and we have exchanged styles. But we both agree that MM has a subjective quality. IOW two people playing the same "system" would not necessarily make the same wager size in the same situation. I use MM every day. It helps "soften the curve" and de-escalates bet sizes. Sometimes it helps, sometimes not. But I'm not worried if I don't squeeze the last drop out of a shoe. It's similar to getting out of an equity trade. Nobody knows where the top is.

J

 

Chasing losses could kill your bankroll. Instead I use an approach where I use a "forget this loss" approach where losses are going out of proportion. Tricky stretches could kill progression players swiftly.
Just imagine a win loss case of EC like this:
LLLLLLLWLLLLLWLWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWLWLWWLLLLLLLLLWLLWW.
It will suck away most of the brute force MMs.
Actual a clever MM needs to incorporate not just stop loss or running away from casino approach but a tactical approach to avoid superhuge losses, come what may.
I have worked so much on MMs, I have got over 50 indigenous MMs made by me. All of them are better than any of the well known MMs.

 

Maybe if you give an example just one well known MM I will understand what you mean by money management. Maybe someone else can explain it to me because I really don't know what you're talking about when you used the term money management. Do you mean just a pre-determined progression with pre-determined stops, goes, bet size changes?

 

Negative variance could attack in a variety of ways. For example, a very long stretch of successive losses like LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLW beats marty players, similarly below 1/3rd win rate kills labby and some other progressions like reverse martingale get killed when we do not get successive wins. Hence, in cases where it is not possible to recoup without immense luck, we need to utilize small "forgets" to leave small losses and move ahead than trying to beat that with brute force and losing huge amount of chips that is irrecoverable.
RTM, pauses, in play stop losses and then a money management progression that could win in lesser wins than losses.

 

I'm rather certain that his MM, Jimske, is primarily based upon "virtual losses". In other words, in these extreme variance cases that Albalaha is representing here, the "no-bet" option is a must, because these extreme case cannot simply be "plowed through" with any reasonable MM.

I, too, utilize my "no-bet" (or "virtual loss") option in my play. Simply by looking at Albalaha's posted example above, I would have avoided (read: "no-bet") a whopping 27 of those 40 losses.

Know this: Money Management includes "virtual losses"; one must play a cautious, vigilant, patient and disciplined game in any game where one is taking the worst of it (read: negative expectancy) and have some sort of viable answer for those negative variance periods in their play.

Mine is the utilization of my "no-bet" option.

Take care and be well, Jimske; and I wish you continued success at this game, for you deserve it; you're one who has put in the time and effort to put yourself in the best possible position to succeed and I always hold players like that in high regard.

 

@gr8player ,
I have two approaches of playing. One all over and other with certain triggers and pauses. I m now focussing on all over as waiting for triggers may not be practical always.

 

Horror of all Horrors currently the Martingale discussion thread at the Roulette Forum " Beating Random with Betting Random ".

ND

 

Having been absent for a while, my guess the snake oil salesman is phishing for fresh meat, I have 50 MM methods, yeah but do you know what side wins next? And while the cat is away, the....... hello Walter...

 

I asked our friend here to just name one of the "well known" MM methods he alluded to but......nary a peep LOL

 

You do not need to know that. Gizmo is there for predictions and following trends. I learnt to beat randomness, even upto its worst stretch.

 

I'm not there for predictions. Unless you are now making fun of my prophecy shtick. I just had another premonition. You are going to face extreme incontinence in your later years. In your case it will be of the deification variety. Sorry about that. It will be explosive in nature and will hit while you are gambling. I'd advise you from now on to never trust a fart.

 

A lawyer with a destructive gambling habit, too bad...

 

Any type of progression or MM from Flat Betting to Martingale is facing the same damn ODDS There is no difference in what you choose. Its a choice. Anyway whenever Marty is discussed, people always goes to the one that hurt you so bad that you cant recoup. How about the one with a MANAGEABLE loss like a 5 Marty 1,2,4,8,16. 31 units. Is 31 units too much? Anytime someone goes to play in a casino isn't he prepared to have at least a 30 units stop/loss bankroll?
A 5 Marty has 97% probability to win a unit but that unit is not considered a true win. It is a fractional win because the whole bankroll of 31 units is at risk. so the comment about losing BIG with Marty and winning SMALL is totally wrong. By the time your 5 Marty bust, you would have won substantial units to cover that loss. If the wins fell short, future wins would cover it.
If one were to chart a shoe and apply triggers as entry points to go in with a 5 Marty to HIT & RUN, there would be a lot of winning days. Everyone is talking about coming out with a way to go head to head with the casino. Its like going to war with America. But if you do stuffs in the dark and be a Baccarat terrorist, you can SUCKER PUNCH your way to do some damages. In the end your Martingale will turn out to be a GRIND and not some 'money printing' method to beat the HOUSE.

 

Nice to see you around again Craps, good contributions. Are you still playing daily?

I'm thinking of dialing back my play for a bit due to virus fears.

Definitely no table bacc where you're in close proximity to other people. Am thinking maybe stadium bacc is an option due to how well the terminals are spaced from each other, but who knows. Want to try and not get it due to having a lot of senior citizens in my sphere, worried about how some of them would handle it with high blood pressure, obesity, etc.

 

There is more to that Corona virus than meets the eye .