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Baccarat Just for Kicks and Giggles

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by soxfan, Jul 2, 2019.

  1. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    I just got one question. Would the original progression using the 13 step parlay work better than back to back if you could get the spread or now would you use this anyways?
     
  2. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    One last thing to add. In addition to keepin tracks of the 11 stage star and coupla other progression I was eyeballin to see how betting banks only on a flats betting proposition would fare. So buckin up against those 2343 tested shoe betting bank only would have given ya 750 units gross profits. So, I think that betting flat on bankers could return ya a profit of say .3 unit per shoe though only buckin up against the no-vigs version of the game, hey hey.
     
  3. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    The modify 11 step star style is far more robust than the 13 step pure parlay. Win rate for the 13 step about 88% and 11 step gonna let win over 92% of shoe played. If I had access to a joint that allowed a nice fat spread then I would play full blown star as written with a 5000 units bankroll and would probably over time capture 10+ unit per shoe profits, hey hey.
     
  4. bob

    bob Member

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    Sox thanks for final update, what was the largest drawdown on ya bankroll ?,
     
  5. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    For this style I assumed a life times bankroll of 2500 units would suffice. So, the worst case scenario for drawdowns buckin up against this style would have clipped ya for just over 40% of yer lifetimes bankroll. But that didn't occur until after this style was well into profits. And the very worst black swan event was gettin clipped for two progressions busts in the same damn player dom shoe. But, in the course of over twelve year of fulltime play at my local bricks and mortars joint I got clipped for two progressions busts less than twelve times in over 16000 shoe, so it's such a rare event that I don't sweat it as I take a long term view and never get caught up in short/medium terms happenings, hey hey.
     
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  6. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    These are the last 9 shoes I played live. I replaced with p and B from my normal method. And just for kicks looked at Banker style 11 step. Ouch! If need 9 winners for 1 loser then need 21 more winning shoes without a loss to get to the black?

    1 lose BppppBpppBBpBpppBBppppppBpBpBBpppppBpppBpppBpppBpBBBBBBppppBBpBppppB
    2 BpppBBpBpBBppBBBBBpBBppBBppBBpBpppppppBBBBBBpppBBpBBpBBpBBB
    3 BpBBBBpBpppBppBBpBpBBppBpBpBppBBpBpBpBBBppBppppBBBBBppppBBBB
    4 pBppBBppBBBBpBpBppBpppBBpBpBpBpBppBpBppBBppBBBpppBBpBBpBppBBBpBBBBBBB
    5 lose ppppppppBppBBBBppBBppBBBppBBppppBpBBBpBpBpBpppBpBpppppppBBBBpB
    6 BppBpppBBppBppBpppBBppBppBBBBBppBBpBpppBBppBpBBpBpBBBBBpBppBBBBBBBpBppBpB
    7 BpBpBpBpBBpBBBBppBppppBpBBBBpBpBpppppBpBBpppBBpBppBBBBBBppBpBppp
    8 pBBBBpBpppppBBpppBBBppBpBBpBpBBBBBppBBBppBppBpBpBppBBBppBpBppBBBppBpBpppBBpp
    9 lose BBpBpBBpBBpBBBBBpBpBBpppBpBBpBppppBpBppppBpBpBpBppBBBpBBBppBp
     
  7. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    Am I figuring the 11 step Banker only wrong? I just entered 3 more shoes which I was saving for another thread and sure enough I get two out of 3 losers. These are all live shoes!!!
     

  8. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    And the three I just posted lost the 11 step 4 times. Twice in one shoe.
     
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  9. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    Yeah I encountered similar bad stretch in testings but never get caught up in short term volatility. Ya could make little tweak to cut down on losings in bad shoe, hey hey.
     
  10. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    Agreed The practice a strategy enough and you know what you're looking for. Your situation You got to recognize certain kinds of shoes. Particularly heavy player shoes. I do the same thing with my strategy. You get a feel for what about go off.
     
  11. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    I crunch some more number for you cats. In the 2343 tested shoe I made 140580 wager. Betting banks only I won 71137 decision and lost 69443 wager when the players popped. So, by betting bankers only I won 1694 more bets than I lost, so won about 50.6 percents of my placed bet. Perspective is everything but I think that the bankers "slight" edge ain't so slight. Being able to win almost 1700 more paced bets than lost is a sweet proposition especially when yer using a serious progression that don't require ya to win more bets than lost. And ya ya ya a cat can get clipped hard in the short terms but in the long run betting bankers only is a serious, solid style of play, hey hey.
     
  12. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    And the 5% commission??
     
  13. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    I figure ya lose say 25-27$ to vig. But honest, I ain't never worry about the tax, I just win the gross and the net take care of itself. And, if the net ain't enough ya just up yer base units bets, hey hey.
     
  14. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    Some cats was askin so I done the drudgery and crunch some more number. In my testings of 2343 shoe I won 2194 shoe and got clipped for 149 losing shoe. So that's 148 shoe where I got clipped for the 265 units bust and one shoe that clipped me for two progression bust. So by my calculations that give a shoe win rate of about 93%. The 11 step star style is very robust and ain't easy to bust so I was very surprised that betting players only was such a lousy proposition while betting bankers only just slowly, continual grind out profits. If I had access to a joint that offer a nice fat spread then I would run this still with complete confidence that I would win well, and regular. And after testings I can't conceive of any circumstance under which I will ever make another bet on the players side of the lay-out, hey hey.
     

  15. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Just finished this shoe

    Capture Soxfan.JPG
     
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  16. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    You sure do buck up against a lotta very strange shoe, there, hey hey.
     
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  17. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    It's their shuffle procedures
     
  18. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    Yes, Player shoes are a real detriment to the bankers only Style that Soxfan is proposing. But they are rare and not the only kind of shoes where Banker Style loses. I've tested over 300 live shoes with this style. The main thing that sticks out is that we need very close to 90% of shoes to win in order for this method to be profitable. Soxfan says it takes 8 or 9 winning shoes to recoup a bust out. This may not br accurate. He based that on an estimate that winning shoes average 35 units. I'm not sure what the true average is. I've seen shoe wins from 20 to 60.. IMO and from my tests shoe win rate between 80 to 85% walk a fine line to profitability. Indeed, my tests show an unacceptable loss at an 85% win rate.

    The question then becomes can we change our bet placement to reduce the number of bust outs? I think the answer is yes. It doesn't take much to get close to 90 % from a normal occurrence of 85%. I've actually been trying this out at the casino live with good results the last week or so.

    The progression Soxfan outlines is pretty robust. And I prefer it to Star and even JK's E-STAR from some time back. The reason is that it really seems to handle the terrible twos and the chops (WLWLWL) with little downside.

    Lastly, I believe money management can play a big role in reducing losses as well if not increasing average wins. Anything we do to reduce escalation is invariably going to affect the bottom line.
     
  19. cps10

    cps10 Active Member

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    Jim

    Thanks for the update. I was just thinking about this the other day when I was playing a Banker heavy bet placement. Although mine is not the best in terms of money management as my bets escalate a little higher than I’d like.

    Do you have any ideas on how to change that bet placement?
     
  20. stephen

    stephen Member

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    Jim,

    Can a progression overcome house advantage? Banker bets lose 1.06% flat betting. Your post and soxfan's posts seem to indicate that a robust progression can overcome house advantage. A note of caution. Please google "The truth about Betting Systems". No betting system can convert a subfair game into a profitable one. You might already be aware of this.

    Thanks for the post.
     

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