Blackjack Kelly Bet for Two Hands

Assuming you are betting $100 at a $25-min blackjack table because the count is favorable, but at half way thru an 8-deck shoe, the guy sitting next to you suddenly leaves after a loss to dealer's blackjack.

Question: If the same true count remains, shall you grab the opportunity and start betting two hands? If so, how much shall you bet per hand?

Possible Choice(s):
1. No, but continue to play 1 hand only at the same $100 bet.
2. No, continue to play 1 hand only, but reduce the bet to $75 for that single hand
3. Yes, begin to play two hands at $100 each.
4. Yes, begin to play two hands at $75 each.
5. Yes, begin to play two hands at $50 each.
6. None of the above

 

No. 4, begin to play two hands at $75 each is the most advisable choice.

Reasons: When counts are favorable, and when other players are also present, you want to have more of the good shoe to yourself. So, start playing two hands is generally advisable when the opportunities are there. But since the two hands both face the same dealer hand, they are not completely independent. You need to reduce each hand's bet size somewhat in order to maintain the same risk level, or you may run the risk of over betting. Although the math for computing Kelly criterion bet for two hands may be a bit complicated, this rule of thumb may be used: When spreading from one to two hands in blackjack, each of the two hands should approximate three quarters (75%) of the one-hand Kelly Criterion bet.

 

No. 4, playing to two hands at $75 each is the most advisable choice.

Reasons: When counts are favorable, and when other players are also present, you want to have more of the good shoe to yourself. So, start playing two hands is generally advisable when the opportunities are there. But since the two hands both face the same dealer hand, they are not completely independent. You need to reduce each hand's bet size somewhat in order to maintain the same risk level, or you may run the risk of over betting per Kelly Criterion. Although the math for computing Kelly criterion for two hands may be a bit complicated, but this rule of thumb may be used: When spreading to two hands in blackjack, each of the two hands should approximate three quarters (75%) of the one-hand bet.