Sports Betting KENTUCKY DERBY 2016/UPDATED/IMPROVED

I put this on the horse racing section, but since I am not a year round horse racing daily bettor....I view the TRIPPLE CROWN as a yearly sports betting opportunity..so I will post here rather than on the horse racing thread section.



Its about a month away, So I will give some thoughts about the field and my picks once the field is more defined.

I did hear an interesting interview with The young Pincay tv analyst.

He said that since the point system was instituted, 3 out of 9 KD winners were the fave.
The reasoning he gave was that with this system, there is less chance of sprinting horses to get in the field.
In the past there was 1 or 2 sprinters that would stall after 8f. making horses behind it scatter, and have to deal with traffic issues. This often worked against the favorite.

But now there are cleaner trips.

Also, there are 2 maidens that qualify on points. That is the other side of the point system, where a maiden can actually qualify. But then again its better to have a maiden that is bred for distance, than have a sprinter that clogs up the field in the backstretch.

In the end I cannot give my real fully thought out opinions till I the post positions are drawn.

The best horse in the 18,19,20 hole is not betable in my opinion for a win.

Any observations at this point will be interesting if any of you have them

 

https://downthestretchs.com/tag/free-past-performances/

if anyone needs past performances before post [positions are drawn

 

I am starting do analysis now. Post positions will tell part ofthe story but I am not going to assign much negatives to outside posts like I used to. In recent history outside pots like 15,16, 19 have had winners. I think in a large field the 1 and 2 posts are much more hazardous to bumping and getting shuffled back.

Also I am not going to put as much weight on horses that won their last race if it appears the last win showed some leveling off.

Brodys cause won the Blue Grass, but more importantly to me is he improved in that second start off a layoff. Can he improve more off that for his 3rd start off a layoff? I think yes.

Also for reasons I listed in my first post, I wont be as negative toward accepting the good chances of a fave. I still am not totally sold on Nyquist. I watched the FLa derby online and it was a solid win, nothing spectacular, I just gotthe feeling he may not have enough left at 1&1/4

And for me, saying how much I like a jocky's experience id not worth it because there have been a fair amount of rookie jockies recently who won the KD. (rookie to the KD)

if anyone has thoughts, please add to the discussion

This age of horse is so unpredictable as some are late bloomers, and can improve immensely over a one month period. Thats what makes this race so intriguing for me,

I will be betting my usual series of dollar tri part wheels. around 600.00 worth.

 

Back to the original point of the thread now that little boy has been dispatched

As I concentrate on trifectas, my views are not heavily weighted on a win, but rather coming in the top 3. I will be betting a part wheel tri of the following
4/10/13 horses-396
7/8/9 horses -294

Besides Brodies cause

I am looking at Mohayaman, as value because he is getting ignored after 4th place finish...but that was on a wet track. Before that he was on an upswing

Mor Spirit- worst he has been s 2nd. Seemed to like the track in workout.I am notgiving much credtit to the baffert angle....if anything it will probably be overbet and have less value due to last years results and the knee jerk general public betting practices. Thisis another horse that was on the upswing before a wet track last outing .

Brodies cause- third off layoff angle, but has poor speed figures, and maybe too far behind to get first, but I think can get 3rd. A definate inclusion for the bottom of the tri.

 

anyone who would like to discuss the derby please feel free to give your opinions....I have moved my original initial posts away from a thread that was soiled by someone without a spec info. Just a name caller.

ADMIN--please lock the other thread.....I am trying to grow your website with real commentary, from real members rather than "guests"....and there is a poster looking to derail the attempt.

 

Tell you what Larry let's have a Derby Day Handicapping Contest.

We each pick one horse from every race run that day. For the Derby we each pick 4 horses. Winner is the person who's horse has the most earnings for the entire card

You name the prize for winning.

As for my knowledge of horse racing I write on three forums and have over 35,000 followers on Twitter

So let's see if you have what it takes to accept my challenge .....

 

I tell you what. The intent of this thread is to discuss the horses and learn from each other. If you would like to start another thread involving "challenges" feel free. I may visit that thread and make a contribution.

I will by friday post my trifecta part wheels for the record for the fun of it not as an answer to some sort of "challenge".

This thread is not a pissing contest that you want to make it.

So either make contributions where you give opinions on horses based on what you read from the forms or from articles or interviews, and have a back and forth conversation or go away

this is not a "look at me how smart I am" thread.

This is a thread about gaining info through discussion and exchange

so far you have added zero to that...not one piece of KD horse info.

Just alot of flexing your weak muscles.

Good luck with that

If you look above I have posted first an info recount of an interview with young pincay. Then I posted a link to past performances, then I gave opinions based on charts and articles I read. THAT is what this thread is about if you havent noticed.

Its not a pissing contest

I personally dont care who is better than me at betting horses. I am sure there are more than I can count. And I never held mysel;f up as an expert.
I hold myself up as someone who wants to learn from others as I give my opinions and findings

If you cant deal with that, then go form your own thread that involves holding yourself up as some great mind in handicapping horses.

I choose not to go that route. I would rather calmly discuss with normal people who have no self aggrandizing agenda...who dont need to say "look at me, look at me....i am so smart".

Just normal everyday self confident people who dont need to be accepted as some genius.

 

Here are a few of the contenders final workouts

-Destin 5 furlongs, 1:01 1/5 with Stradivari. Splits of :12 3/5, :24 4/5, :37 2/5, :49 3/5. Galloped out six furlongs in 1:14 1/5, seven furlongs in 1:27.

—Discreetness, five furlongs, 1:00 2/5 with workmate (1:01 2/5). Splits of :11 4/5, :23 3/5, :35 4/5, :47 4/5. Galloped out six furlongs in 1:15 1/5.

—Fellowship, four furlongs, :47 with Street Gray. Splits of :12 1/5, :23 3/5, :35. Galloped out five furlongs in 1:00.

—Majesto (jockey Javier Castelano up), five furlongs, 1:01 2/5. Splits of :12 4/5, :24 4/5, :36 4/5. Galloped out six furlongs in 1:15, seven furlongs in 1:28 3/5.

—Mohaymen, four furlongs, :47 2/5. Splits of :12 3/5, :23 4/5, :35 2/5. Galloped out five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.

—Mo Tom, four furlongs, :48 3/5. Splits of :12 1/5, :24 2/5, :36 3/5. Galloped out five furlongs in 1:02 1/5, six furlongs in 1:15 2/5.

—My Man Sam, four furlongs, :49 3/5 with workmate. Splits of :13, :25 3/5, :37 4/5. Galloped out five furlongs in 1:02 1/5 and six furlongs in 1:14 4/5.

—Oscar Nominated, five furlongs, 1:00 4/5 with Hint of Roses.

—Outwork, five furlongs, 1:01 with Azar (1:02). Splits of :13 1/5, :37 2/5. Galloped out six furlongs in 1:14.

—Shagaf, four furlongs, :47 4/5. Splits of :12 2/5, :24 1/5, :35 4/5. Galloped out five furlongs in 1:00 1/5.

—Suddenbreakingnews, five furlongs, :59 3/5 out in 1:13.

—Tom's Ready, five furlongs, :59 2/5 with Forever d'Oro 59 4/5). Splits of :23 4/5, :36. Galloped out six furlongs in 1:13 1/5, seven furlongs in 1:27 1/5.

—Whitmore, five furlongs, 1:00 with workmate (1:00 2/5). Splits :12 2/5, :24, :35 3/5, :48. Galloped out six furlongs in 1:14.

 

I have a chart which project the yards per second out to 1 1/4

Yard per second covered to each call not between calls
1/4 - 1 1/8 1m-1 1/8m horse 1/4POLE 1/2POLE 3/4P0LE 1MILE 1/16MILE 1/8MILE 1/4 mile AVERAGE average
GUN RUNNER 19.04 18.59 18.28 18.07 17.93 17.84 18.06 18.29 17.95
NYQUIST 19.12 19.06 18.74 18.61 18.04 18.17 18.45 18.62 18.27
EXAGGERATOR 19.36 19.40 18.93 18.31 17.80 18.12 18.52 18.65 18.08
OUTWORK 19.05 18.87 18.45 17.89 18.26 17.62 18.03 18.36 17.92
BRODY/S CAUSE 18.63 18.72 18.36 17.84 18.26 17.62 17.99 18.24 17.90
LANI 18.11 18.11 18.12 18.11 17.41 16.51 17.31 17.73 17.34
CREATOR 18.66 18.79 18.61 18.76 17.97 18.00 18.30 18.47 18.25
MOR SPIRIT 19.01 18.99 18.54 18.07 18.13 18.09 18.32 18.47 18.10
MOHAYMAN 18.59 18.19 18.46 18.33 18.26 18.12 18.29 18.33 18.24
DANZING CANDY 19.15 19.24 18.68 18.33 18.16 18.01 18.34 18.59 18.17
DESTIN 18.65 18.53 18.31 17.90 18.07 18.44 18.37 18.32 18.14
SUNDDENBREAKINGNEWS 18.81 18.71 18.13 18.14 17.80 17.99 18.06 18.26 17.98
OSCAR NOMINATED 17.81 18.21 17.86 17.90 17.80 18.15 18.00 17.95 17.95
SHAGAF 18.79 18.80 17.94 17.90 17.89 17.58 17.76 18.15 17.79
WHTMORE 18.94 18.78 18.42 18.10 18.08 17.98 18.20 18.38 18.05
TOM"S READY 18.95 18.72 18.30 18.24 18.01 17.97 18.13 18.37 18.07
MY MAN SAM 18.61 18.48 18.44 19.50 17.91 17.97 18.21 18.49 18.46
MAJESTO 18.62 18.68 18.36 18.25 18.09 18.17 18.26 18.36 18.17
TROJAN NATION 18.77 18.58 18.22 17.87 18.13 17.68 17.95 18.21 17.89
MO TOM 18.16 18.51 18.16 18.53 18.13 17.66 17.91 18.19 18.11
FELLOWSHIP 18.49 18.40 18.47 16.57 18.24 12.69 15.58 17.14 15.83

 

thanks,,,great info

 

The thing I like about this race that its 20 horses. Which to me means that unless its a smarty Jones type horse that goes to the lead and stays in the lead.....there is less chance numbers hold up well in my opinion. nineteen other horses leave alot of unanswered questions....and thats the key to every KD......will the unanswered questions be answered as expected, or will some horses freak out based on the sheer volume of other horses, clean trips, handling the extra distance, reaction to the immense crowd,front runing horses dying out leading to massive adjustments of a dozen horses at the same time. Oscar Nominated-first time dirt. How many times after the derby do I have to hear, xyz horse under performed because he didnt like dirt kicked in his face.
In order to bet this race I have to look at post positions and try to predict how the race will unfold.
And the way I bet takes into account 3 finish positions(TRIFECTAS)
So for example I have to ask myself....although A deep closer like creator probably wont win because he is too far back to start no matter what post he starts from.....can he come on strong to 3rd place. He did win last race going 6 wide out of the far turn...but will he have the stamina to go 7 or 8 wide and still have the late kick?
The past numbers wont answer any of those questions unless all horses run the race like its a 10 horse race. But with double the horses that they are used to......past performances only go so far.
Of course I use past numbers to guide me....but lets face it, a serious handicapper probably doesnt put alot of money on this race. There are too many other variables taking place.

 

you're last two sentences are bang on

 

In reply to the serious bettors don't put a lot of money into the race, well we put more $$$ into PK3's and 4's due to larger pools. Also show betting is VERY prosperous over Oaks and Derby day.... For instance last 7 years favorites are paying $3.20-$3.80 to show when on a usual day $2.40-$2.80
So if you bet $200 to show on a horse paying $3.40 you'd make $140 compared to $2.80 making only $80 profit..

I watch the show pools non stop both days...

 

Just curious......since you keep an eye on show,....have you ever hit on a overbet show by someone looking to make a quick 5 percent. Like 100k on a show bet on a 6 horse race with a big fave.
I won over 2k on a 50 dollar bet once at the meadowlands on a 6 horse race with a 1-9 horse cape matteras many years ago
the fave broke down, never finished. Efishnc was winner.

I was losing, so I didnt want to sit out a race. I wanted action so I figured betting show would be equivalent to sitting out the race and making a couple of bucks. I had no idea about the payout because the board on the field showed 8 dollars..there was no place for the "hundred" number.

 

Yes these opportunities happen about once or twice a month... I look for "opportunities" daily. I mean where I think a horse should pay $2.80-$3.40 but I can get $3.60-$4.20

 

in the KD, do the favorites come in 1,2 or3 over 50percent of the time. Thats the only way a show bet paying 3.40 would win in thelong run

 

I don't think anyone ever would use serious players and show betting in the same sentence

 

I know many serious bettors who only bet show....

 

Interesting stuff if you think Beyer number is relevant which I never have used... I'm a BRIS only player


The overall Derby record for those who’d never run a 95 Beyer before the Derby is 85-2-3-2. Horses in this year’s field who’ve never run that fast on the Beyer scale are Gun Runner, Brody’s Cause, Suddenbreakingnews, Oscar Nominated, Shagaf, Whitmore, Tom’s Ready, Majesto, Trojan Nation, and Mo Tom.

 

I have read that one angle to look at is the past performance final 1/8 and 3/8 where the numbers should be 13 and 38 or under.....for a horse to have a chance to win

Anyway as usual I start by finding horses to throe out.
I will post those first....and anyone can poke holes in my logic. I will give reasons. I mean any monkey can throw darts and come up with a winner or loser....without any reasoning. I am willing to change my mind as other info appears.

My first one might be Oscar nOMINATED.......claimed off of the great trainer Bill Mott.....does he give away KD winners? I think not.