1. Welcome to the #1 Gambling Community with the best minds across the entire gambling spectrum. REGISTER NOW!
  2. Have a gambling question?

    Post it here and our gambling experts will answer it!
    Dismiss Notice
  3. Discussions in this section are assumed to be EV- as they are outside of the Advantage Play section. For EV+ discussions, please visit the Advantage Play sub-forum.
    Dismiss Notice

TurboGenius Law of Thirds.....

Discussion in 'TurboGenius's Forum' started by TurboGenius, Nov 8, 2020.

  1. 6th-sense

    6th-sense Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2019
    Likes:
    57
    Location:
    Uk
    everything that spins has a frequency ...do not assume it is stable...
     

    Attached Files:

  2. 6th-sense

    6th-sense Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2019
    Likes:
    57
    Location:
    Uk
    what i,m trying to say is everything is not based on basic maths...there's more to it than that...maths works great on a stable...roulette is not stable...soooooo what else is there
     
  3. 6th-sense

    6th-sense Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2019
    Likes:
    57
    Location:
    Uk
    you really need to change your way of looking at the game
     
  4. TwoUp

    TwoUp Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2020
    Likes:
    192
    Location:
    Australia
    I think your interpretation is not quite right. After the 2nd dozen has appeared the final dozen has a 12/37 probability. Which is always 3.07 spins. This is always the case to hit a particular dozen and doesn't depend on the past.

    The math shows that on average its 5.65 spins to hit all three dozens (or columns) or any set of 12 numbers that you want to call a dozen.

    The LOTT is a rule of thumb as it is very close to the results of the math but doesn't really provide the reasoning as to why it is so.

    So I will attempt to demystify the LOTT and give you the means to calculate required spins for any number of unique numbers which may be useful for attacking certain situations when they occur.

    Every number has 1/37 probability and that's the true odds of the event, so the long term average it takes 37/1 = 37 spins (by flipping the probablity) for a number to appear.

    The probability of the first number appearing is 37/37= 1 as we don't care what the number is, the probability is always 100%. This now leaves 36 numbers that haven't hit.

    So that means the probability of the next unique number is 36/37, and this takes on average 37/36 spins (1.02 spins) which is ever so slighlty more than 1 spin as the first number can repeat occasionally. This now leaves 35 unique numbers that haven't hit.

    And likewise the probability of the third unique number is 35/37 as there are 35 unique numbers remaining, and this takes on average 37/35 spins (1.05 spins), again we just flip the probability fraction to get the spin count.

    We expect each unique number to appear with the following probabilities 37/37, 36/37, 35/37, 34/37, 33/37, 32/37 ... 2/37, 1/37.

    In terms of number of spins we just flip those probabilities to get the required spin counts for each unique number to appear and add them all up.

    (37/37 + 37/36 + 37/35 + 37/34 + ... 37/2 + 37/1).

    You will notice every number has 37 on the top so we can take that common term out and get:
    37 × (1/37 + 1/36 + 1/35 + 1/34 + ... 1/2 + 1/1)

    Which equals 155 spins on average to cover ALL numbers on the wheel.

    And we can also just calculate to say 10 unique numbers:

    37 × (1/37 + 1/36 + 1/35 + 1/34 + 1/33 + 1/32 + 1/31 + 1/30 + 1/29 + 1/28) = 11.47 spins on average.

    And for 23 unique numbers it's the 37 spin cycle:
    37 × (1/37 + 1/36 + 1/35 + 1/34 + 1/33 + 1/32 + 1/31 + 1/30 + 1/29 + 1/28 ... 1/15 + 1/14) = 37.79

    Which is why the LOTT says in 37 spins we get 23 unique numbers, with 14 unhit numbers meaning that of the 23 that hit, we have 14 repeaters in a 37 spin cycle on average.

    The statistical evidence confirms exactly what the math predicts.

    We can also expect on average that approximately 14 of the 23/24 numbers in the first cycle are included the second cycle and 9 new numbers from the unhit numbers in the prior cycle will now be hit.

    Basically every 37 spins trades out 9 numbers for 9 new numbers, on average. After 155 spins, we cover all 37 numbers on average.

    Again these are averages, but they are fairly stable norms. Yes there will be slight variance and even outliers, given a billion spins we can expect to see rare events such as a number to not hit in over 400 spins, and we may see up to 32 unique numbers in 37 spins.
     
    Last edited: May 14, 2022 at 2:44 AM
  5. Naughty but nice

    Naughty but nice Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2019
    Likes:
    172
    Location:
    UK
    TwoUp
    Fantastic piece of work. Shame others can't post piece's of work that help; not the usual bashing/trolling.
    Again nice work.
    Dane came up with all could be gone in, think said 144 spins.
    On FOBT's use to see often all could hit with-in 120 spins.
     
    TurboGenius and TwoUp like this.

Share This Page