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Roulette Lets talk progressions.

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by daveylibra, Feb 5, 2019.

  1. Mako

    Mako Active Member

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    So while it's interesting to see upward trend charts with flat bets, and 1u bets at that, the normal critical caveats apply.

    First, testing would need to be automated because it's laborious to do manually, and 26 cycles/300 spins doesn't mean anything. Even if that trendline continued to 10,000 spins, it would still just be "a good start".

    Maybe Ben on the other board can do it up in Excel for you Davey, not sure how he would handle the retracking, but he's great at it so who knows.

    Second, the average hit rate for all betting spins came in at 48.75%, whereas the expected hit rate for a bet on 15.7 random numbers would be 42.43%.

    That looks promising, but the first rule applies...for 300 spins you could have a +11.8% net advantage session from a random EC bet or -11.8% for that matter...the spin count is low enough to just be pure luck.

    Fun to play though, easy, would like to see it pursued with automation to see how it plays out and if it comes back down to EV.
     
  2. daveylibra

    daveylibra New Member

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    A brilliant piece of testing - it certainly looks encouraging to me.
    I would probably play it so if I was ahead in one 37 spin session, I would take profit and retrack.
    But your method may be better, its hard to say.
     
  3. daveylibra

    daveylibra New Member

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    Another thought - I'm surprised the results are so good, as we need those 6 hits to be within 11 spins, flat-bet, don't we?
    12 spins means break even, 13 or more we are at a loss.
    If I saw that trend continue for 10,000 spins I would be very happy.
    I will try to contact Ben.
     
  4. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    Bbbbbbbbbbbbbbwwwwwwwwwwaaaaaaaaahhhhhhh, the turbo-genius gonna write the book, too, hey hey!!!!!!!!!!
     
    Junket King likes this.
  5. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    The disillusionment is contagious, add him to the list of asybacgay, lungyeh, gr8, great bunch to be associated with, who's missing LOL.
    JP? well he did write a few.

    Fuck it, I'm gonna do it, I'll have to give up playing though, but must remember not to mention those snidely croupiers that used to spin against me. I'll hire me a security detail and get paid not to play once casinos realise who I am, great plan...
     
    Terry Plumb and soxfan like this.
  6. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    A labouchere could easily be modified to get a net win in 25%+1 win. Rather you can just use a multiplier to achieve the same but there could be a scene of 25 wins in 100 spins and then the bet would be horrible. Progression doesn't help by themselves but they could rather aggravate the case to a level where for winning just 1 unit you stand to lose hundreds or thousands of chips foolishly. I do not believe in a progression but rather money management that includes a logic to not lose your pants just to fetch one unit profit, how to handle the worst, how to win in less than average win rates, loss recovery etc.
     
  7. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    Do not forget that a 10 step martingale lets you win in even 10% wins case but even that is not good enough to handle all eventualities that randomness may offer you.
     

  8. soxfan

    soxfan Active Member

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    Well to be fair the lungyeh did write the book according to the jimske so gotta give him credits for that, hey hey.
     
  9. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member

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    Did he? Who's actually seen it? Jimske I don't think has a copy? I requested a copy at the time, but didn't get one. Maybe somebody can post the cover to prove it actually exists!!

    Long time ago there was gezza who used to gamble in AC, he was a great Baccarat player, the AI computer system rated him a winner, was even complimented by the valet to the toilet cleaners, people used to flock and watch him sit on his hands for long stretches of the shoe, then make his move. Harvey Weinstein wanted to make a movie about his exploits, but the mysterious one turned him down, so instead cast Philip Seymour Hoffman and changed things around to protect this gezza's identity. Cool story bro ;)
     

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