Sports Betting Luck versus value betting BASKET

Luck versus value betting BASKET

This topic will randomly pick games with the odds 2.00 up to 6.00 to see if there is a big difference using your value betting skill rather then bet randomly.
Will be staking between 1 to 5 units.

The idea comes from a Monkey who won the Swedish Stockmarket Championship predicting randomly what stocks would win and profit more then traders would predict.
They use notes on a Dart Target and the Monkey throw Darts and randomly hit different notes with stocks.

Now I will explain the random process.
Each day I will go to Betfair and look at the daily board of Basket games.
I ignore what teams that play and what league.
Just pick the first best odds matching 2.00 and if there is no match I pick the closest one.
Same for odds 3.00 and 6.00.

I have some structure behind how the random process work.
Will use binomial probability calculation where the following odds has 50% chance to succeed winning or losing.

2.00 has 50% chance of winning during one attempt
3.00 has 50% chance winning during two attempts.
6.00 has 50% chance winning during four attempts.

 

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets - Moneyline

Oklahoma City Thunder
Odds 2.00
1 Unit

LOSS

BALANCE -1 Unit

 

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Chicago Bulls - Moneyline

Chicago Bulls
Odds 3.00
1 Unit

LOSS

BALANCE -2 Unit

 

Asc Denain Voltaire PH v Quimper - Moneyline

Quimper
Odds 3.00
1 Unit

WON

Balance +0 Unit

 

Todays Game

Detroit @ Youngstown State - Moneyline

Detroit
Odds 2.00
1 Unit

 

Detroit won
Current Balance +1 unit
Next random game tomorrow ...

IPFW @ North Dakota - Moneyline

North Dakota
Odds 2.00
1 Unit

 

Made a spreadsheet you can follow.
https://www.sharps.se/spreadsheet/546565213

Cheers