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Roulette Luck

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by TurboGenius, Jan 1, 2017.

  1. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I've had a problem since day 1 - (that was somewhere in 1980 I think).
    The work "Luck".
    It appears everywhere - working on roulette constantly I see/hear/read it many times per day.
    There is a major problem here, and that is that "Luck" isn't a really "thing".
    It's a word that is used to throw into a sentence to "explain" something - when in reality it doesn't.
    There are perfectly good - legitimate explanations for why things happen.
    Perhaps people who don't understand probability simply use it - or plug it into a sentence to explain
    what they don't understand. (and this has always bugged me).
    There are lots of words like "Luck" that aren't real things - that people use everyday to explain things.
    My pet peeve though is this word.
    If a person goes into a casino and wins, they are "lucky".
    It people play their "lucky" numbers in the Lotto and win - it was the "lucky numbers" that won.
    If any good fortune comes to someone out of nowhere, it is lucky - bad things happening... "Well, he was unlucky"
    I like to put Luck into the same category as religion (prayer, faith) and some emotions that are described nicely but don't exist as a "thing". (I'm a realist by the way).

    Wikipedia has a 1/2 decent page on it - explaining it's origin and use and meanings, etc.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luck

    I would like to drill into people's heads - that "Luck" happening or not happening is not relevant in any way, shape or form when explaining why something happened.
    ie.. "TurboGenius won due to luck" or Grandpa got hit by lightning 2 times due to "bad luck".
    Anyone who doesn't agree is free to plug the word "luck" into any calculation where it would
    prove to have a value of some kind.

    2+2=4
    You will never see "If you're lucky - 2+2=4"
    or
    Luck + 2 = 4
    or even
    Luck+4x=13 ?? Laughs
    "Luck" isn't a thing. It can't be used to explain why system "A" won or lost - or player "B" won or lost.
    The house never once declares "luck" in it's profits over players who come in to gamble... because there's no such thing. There is only math. It is a math game.
    Everything else in life is probability, not luck.
    Thanks for reading my rant - it's always bothered me, always will - and people will continue to say "Good luck" without even understanding that it means nothing at all.

    [​IMG]
     
  2. mr j

    mr j Active Member

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    Yep, a few of my buddies tell me....if I did well at the casino, it was due to good luck. If I got my ass kicked at the casino, no biggie, thats what is suppose to happen. I'm screwed either way when it comes to public opinion regarding playing roulette. I get ZERO credit after doing well so I keep my results to myself. If I get asked....."not too bad" is my STANDARD answer.

    Ken
     
  3. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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  4. RouletteGhost

    RouletteGhost Active Member

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    Turbo

    This is literally one of the best, if not the best post ever on any gambling forum I've ever seen

    I'm in AC for the night. Gambling recreationally at Harrahs if anyone's in town
     
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2017
    TurboGenius likes this.
  5. RouletteGhost

    RouletteGhost Active Member

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    Question. Does standard in full CAPS have a different definition then lower case?
     
  6. Michaela

    Michaela Member

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    Luck = variance, and variance isn't meaningless.

    I find "random" to be more interesting, and it's closely related to "luck" (variance). What does "random" mean to you?
    My thesaurus gives this definition:

    I don't find this very helpful because it defines random in terms of "chance". But what does "chance" mean? Luck??

    Some system players recommend that you learn to "read" random, LOL. But that's an oxymoron. If random means "unpredictable" then you're attempting to learn how to predict the unpredictable, which is absurd.

    A better definition of random is "that for which the cause is unknown". In the context of roulette outcomes, which are said to be random, it means you don't have any understanding or knowledge of WHY the ball falls into one pocket rather than another. To find the causes (and therefore eliminate or at least reduce the random element of the game) you need to look at the physics, the laws of mechanics which determine where the ball will fall. That's not easy, but it can be done (at least in theory).

    On the other hand, since system players don't look at the physics (the causes), they will never reduce the randomness. They're just relying on correlations and patterns, and correlation is not causation.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation (look at the examples of illogically inferring causation from correlation).
     
  7. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    When anyone asks about random - I tell them to begin here :
    (and also - for the record... Roulette is not random. It is certainly close though)




     
  8. Rona

    Rona Member

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    I enjoy TG posts immensely, but saying roulette is not random or not a lucky game is absurd.
    Even if the pocket of number 15 was double the width of the others, there is no certainty that in 1000 spins nr. 15 would appear double the times the other numbers would appear. That is called uncertainty, randomness, luck, variance, whatever... and it certainly exists.
     
  9. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Roulette is not random.
    The game itself relies on the dealer (a human being making choices that influence the outcome),
    A physical wheel, ball / mechanism that are all subject to predictable results.
    So no - roulette is not random (in the true definition of random) but it's close.
    For the record - a pocket being twice the size of the others will result in more appearances of that number.
    "Certainty" ? no.. But not random.
    Once a device is proven not to produce random results - then a prediction is possible.
    System players focus on this while AP (wheel bias and DS) focus on the device and the human interaction which can also be predictable.
     
  10. Bombus

    Bombus Active Member

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    When considering luck, I always remember an interview with the world's no:1 golfer at the time.

    He was asked if when he hits a hole in one is it due to skill or luck?

    His answer was that he had practised golf from a very young age every day for more than 6 hours a day all his life, so when he hits a hole in one it's exactly what he's been trained to do and exactly what he is aiming to do.

    He claimed ownership of his rare events rather than give them away to luck.
     
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  11. Spider

    Spider Active Member Founding Member

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    Jerry Barber is quoted as saying " the harder I practice the luckier I get". This is a great statement.
     
  12. Rona

    Rona Member

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    He is not still the no1 - where did all that training go? ;-)
     
  13. BlueAngel

    BlueAngel Member

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    My definition of luck is this: A rare event which is probability is very low happens, if it's positive we call it good luck, if it's negative we call it bad luck.
    I don't think anyone would call ordinary events good or bad luck because they are common, frequent.
    That's why I consider roulette not as lucky game, but a few, perhaps very few of its events are being categorized as good luck or bad luck coincidences.

    Now I have a question for all of you, how could someone understands if the roulette's results are truly random or something in the background is controlling them very discretely.
    I assume we could never prove such thing but could we, at least, understand if something is not right??
     
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  14. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    It's always been "legend" that someone could tell the difference between real spins and RNG spins.
    This simply isn't true - no one can tell the difference.
    To find a non-random outcome where there is some defect in the mechanism that might benefit the player takes a lot of tracking which most people don't want to do. (of course a pro can "spot" a bias wheel without having to track tons of spins, but that's another subject).
    The reality though in the RNG vs Real spins and random vs non-random is that there is no difference to the average player. Personally I need roulette to be random (as random as it can be anyway) in order to beat it.
     
  15. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    An RNG and a live wheel look wildly different when you look at a statistically relevant number of spins. Even after 10k spins you can usually see the differences.
     
  16. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    The stories of legend for anyone playing a few hundred spins at a time.
    There is a reason why RNG is used to replace live spin outcomes - because they are the same as long as they remain "random" enough.
     
  17. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Have any of you ever collected 10k spins from a live wheel or viewed that many from a live wheel?
     
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2017
  18. BlueAngel

    BlueAngel Member

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    Yes, I did.
    I've a record of 4.5 to 5 million live spins, 10 k of them from 00 American wheel, I've another record of something more than 10 million RNG results.
    I've attempted in the past to recognise which results are from live spins and which from RNG, those results provided by Bayes at another forum, that's why I cannot verify if Bayes cheat me or not because he never uploaded those results.
    The prediction technique which I've used was the distance of pockets between numbers from 1 spin to the next.
    Just keep in mind that on European roulette the spins are regulated, which means that croupiers must place their hand roughly above the winning number/pocket and release the ivory/teflon ball towards ClockWise on one spin and CounterClockwise on the next spin.
    Also Euro wheel has different layout and a pocket less as well.

    For RNG's everything are digits, in my point of view both are random BUT random from random differs.
    For example RNG is an algorithm, exists in an electronic circuit, while roulette wheel is completely different environment, that's why random from RNG's has not any relevance with the distance between numbers/pockets BUT for ''live'' random HAS!

    Even between European and American wheels you could notice the difference, not by the extra 00, but since their layouts are different this makes their distribution of outcomes different too.
    If you think that the wheel's layout makes no difference on the distribution of the results then ask yourself this question; why Americans create a different layout for the American roulette wheel?
    For extra edge they could just keep the French/Euro layout and add the 00, but they didn't...
    House edge would still be the same if they added just the extra pocket without changing the layout, so why?
    It's because what I mentioned above, in practical terms does it make any difference to play RNG in comparison with live wheel?
    Yes, a whole lot of difference, for starters in one hand you are sitting in front a computer screen while on the other hand you are playing among others, you may enjoy a cigar and drinks while you work your magic on the table.
    I'm smoker, I prefer BM casinos with live wheels, NOT airball machinery, actually I consider those machines as roulette's bastards!
    Yes, I do enjoy smoking, drinking, fucking, eating and most of all winning money at the trench-tables!
    All of these I can do inside a casino, that's why moving with a tent by the roulette trench-tables is tempting idea!
     
  19. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Blue,

    I hope you're not counting the Weisbaden/German casino downloads. Those streams are not the same wheel (s) day after day.

    By the way, there's no chance of you winning dirt using just dealer's signature on those wheels. If you'd like proof I can provide that data.
     
  20. BlueAngel

    BlueAngel Member

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    I'm not using DS as my main method, only used it to demonstrate how RNG random is different from live wheel random.
    RNG is not aware of the wheel's attributes, concentrating on wheel and croupier it could make miss the bigger picture, oh yes there is one if you try hard to see it.
    Perhaps you look a lot but see nothing...for me makes no difference who is spinning the ball or what's the brand of the wheel.
    Casinos are changing dealers from one table to the next, what prevents anyone to follow a specific dealer to the next table?
    Nobody! Nothing! So what's the point of moving around the dealers from time to time??!
     

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