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Roulette Math Players vs System Players

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by Keyser Soze, Dec 11, 2021.

  1. Keyser Soze

    Keyser Soze Active Member

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    Decided to make OUR own thread and not mess up any other threads with off topic discussions.

    The floor is open to all discussion why you think math triumphs systems and vice versa.
    Say what’s on your mind, don’t hold back. The floor is yours!
     
  2. Keyser Soze

    Keyser Soze Active Member

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    I guess I’ll start off.

    The problem with what a see with math system players is that I see many of them rely too much on the probabilities why any system wouldn’t work.

    I find them tryna win by covering as much of the table as possible leaving little as much 4-6 numbers uncovered.

    When I first started playing roulette, I did just that. I would win frequently, but my profit was nothing glamorous. I figured out if I needed something big I would need a bigger bankroll. Then I realized it was not worth risking $200 or $300 a spin to win $50. A loss would set me back big time just to break even.
     
  3. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    My experience is inverse of yours.

    I was chasing systems betting, John legend, sputnik march, RRBB derived stream, Turbo's hot/cold numbers, Vaddi pairs.

    I didn't understand one bit what those systems bet mean, just follow blindly some voodoo patterns.

    Until I relearn math. This is my turning point. I finally understand why the spins hit the way they do. It's easy from thereon.
     
  4. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    I read Turbo wrote somewhere that scenario A must hit higher than scenario B.

    This made me design my bets as EC bets of A vs B.

    Since I know the limit of random that's orderly I play with a sessions bankroll calculated to survive the known variance and known average profit target.

    Same grind every session played, no guessing, no surprise just same boring stuff.

    Nowadays I don't play that often anymore. Since cov19 closed the local casino for almost 2 years.
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2021
  5. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    It's either discretionary guessing or quantified rules based betting.

    Discretionary guessing is gambling to me.

    Quantified rules based systems betting means the strategy either has positive edge or not. Its clear without ambiguity and is repeated like doing the same job every session. Any wheel, any casino.

    I don't use negative progression because it hide losers. Just flatbet, win or lose.
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2021
  6. Keyser Soze

    Keyser Soze Active Member

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    Anything with math based players I am finding. They’re always wanting proof of concept. What proof can they give?
    People showed charts/graphs, instructions how they bet etc. The only proof at this point is to show their bankroll. Either way, what proof is given will still be unsatisfying to the mathboys.

    Anyone can run a simulation of X amount of spins on a computer, and the data can show that their system looks promising. But once they apply that same system on a real live or online casino that same system will yield different results.
     
  7. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    So many things look exciting playing virtually on paper. Until you try them at the casino and get slapped in the face. It's not that what you were doing that was wrong it's just that the sequences of numbers the casino is giving you is different than the sequences you were playing at home. This is why you always have to see if the casino is playing your game before you bet. I know I say that a lot but it's 90% of the strategy.
     

  8. karumba

    karumba Active Member

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    Wellbush Paradox I says the math may be wrong when the gambler is using a negative progression system. The trick though, is to come up with a profitable negative progression system. Easier said than done.

    One big advantage these days though, is that we have free software to trial systems before we lose any money for real.
     
  9. karumba

    karumba Active Member

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    I use math to beat the casino math. I'm currently trialling a winning system on free software. But, I don't know EXACTLY why the math is giving me a profit, except to say that the use of negative progression is provided a profit!
     
  10. karumba

    karumba Active Member

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    If I find the system overcomes long term losses, it will start to put the nails in the coffin to the idea that -EV proves all systems worthless.
     
  11. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    You have to test it over a huge number of spins because outcomes run in cycles and you could be in a cycle right now that favors your system. You get to the casino the outcomes are totally different and it does nothing but lose. If you get a method that wins flat betting a negative progression becomes a positive progression. But if you can win flat betting you don't need a progression. Unless you have figured out how to win more than you lose without using a progression the progression will always fail.
     
  12. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    To be playable the system has to overcome short-term losses because that's where you play, in the short-term. Unless we have different understandings of what you mean by long-term.
     
    thereddiamanthe likes this.
  13. karumba

    karumba Active Member

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    Yeah, I've been down the road of having a potential system only to get to my local and lose. So i'll be putting any new potential system through the rigours before I go to the casino next time.

    One problem is that where I live in Australia, casinos are few and far between, due to politicians here wanting to protect the community from the downsides of gambling. Hence, the one casino in my capital city has 6-deck CSMs for BJ, that swallow each hand dealt, immediately. Anyone knowledgeable about BJ would know that the variation in the game here would therefore be pretty sky-high. It makes it very difficult to win.

    I could change games as a way around it - baccarat, roulette, whatever.
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2021
  14. karumba

    karumba Active Member

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    I don't think it's necessary to win flat betting, in order to have a winning negative progression. The trick though, is to have enough short term wins using a negative progression, to overcome the more occasional larger losses. And yes, it requires a lot of trials to have any confidence to use it with real money.
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2021

  15. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    There's no benefit to using math to beat the random game of roulette, because it's not possible to calculate what's likely or "due" to hit next in a game of independent trials.

    It does have some value in measuring the wheel fitness of the live wheel (meaning is it likely bias or not), and in ballistics.
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2021
  16. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    Keep going and you'll find out..
     
  17. Keyser Soze

    Keyser Soze Active Member

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    You’re saying you could use math to find a biased wheel?
    Couldn’t you use other ways to detect biased wheels like say, patterns or streaks?

    If certain numbers hit more often than most that should be a give away what sections are hot at the moment
     
  18. Keyser Soze

    Keyser Soze Active Member

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    But the problem with trying to find biased wheels are too time consuming.

    You mention numerous times how you hate being in an actual casino. You able or believe that you can find an online biased wheel?
     
  19. karumba

    karumba Active Member

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    Ok. I'll flat bet now and compare it to a progression: 1. $5 L = -$5 2. $5 L = -$10 3. $5 L = -$15 4. $5 W = -$10 5. $5 W = -$5
    Comparison Fibonacci progression 1. $5 L = -$5 2. $8 L = -$13 3. $13 L = -$26 4. $21 W = -$5 5. $8 W = $3
    Wow 3 Ws to 2 Ls gave me a loss of -$5 using flat betting. However the same sequence using a progression resulted in $3 profit!!! It's...well... AMAZING!!!
     
  20. karumba

    karumba Active Member

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    See my above post to spike and the Wellbush Paradox. It seems the math has been wrong for....centuries!!! Gulp!!!
     

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