Baccarat Math & Probability & The Black Swan

I have some Marigny De Grilleau excel simulations variants to select and find 3.0 STDV and above.
This is one experiment to see if we can overcome such a bad imbalance against us.

Cheers

 

Up 1 on a win and Up 1 on a loss ...
Recoup 3.0 STDV
Left the outcomes, middle the progression, last the net profit or net loss.

Code:

R
B 1 -1
R 2 -3
B 3 -6
R 4 -10
B 5 -15
R 6 -21
B 7 -28
B 8 -20
B
R
B 9 -29
R 10 -39
B 11 -50
R 12 -52
B 13 -65
R 14 -79 <<< 3.0 STDV >>>
R 15 -64
R
B
B 16 -48
R
R 17 -31
B
R 18 -49
B 19 -68
B 20 -48
B
R
R 21 -27
B
R 22 -49
R 23 -26
B
B 24 -2
B
R
B 25 -27
B 26 -1
B
B
B
B
B
R
B 27 -28
B 28 +0
R
R
R

Here is the simulation using 1000 random bits from random org.

 

I am fascinated by Stetson Balley's approach - it is very powerful.
I don't think there is many progression that can overcome 3 or above STDV...

Cheers

 

I guess you’d need a substantial bankroll to use this progression.

 

Yes - and is not for me - I just like to crack some random bits and test claims ...
In real life, I would reckon one Air Ball Machine with 1 Euro minimum.

 

Hi Sputnik,

is there more to know or to say about Stetson Balley's approach ?
I find it interesting, so I started to program this progression.
So if you want to give some tips, feel free to do so.
Herby

 

Hey Sputnik,

problem: STDV is proportional to SQRT(spins)

a) how many spins do you consider ?

STDV is measured as difference to the mean

Example: 64 spins, 2 possible outcomes W or L , (no 0 )

mean: 32: 32 wins, 32 losses
STDV: SQRT(n*p*(1-p)) = SQRT(64*0.5*0.5) = 4

3 STDV = 12

so we consider: mean+/- 3 STDV = 32 +/- 12 -> 48 losses + 20 wins

Do you agree so far ?

cheers

 

Sorry for the delay.

Each event has the value of 1.

The banker has the value 1 and the Player has the value 1.
Same for singles versus series and series versus singles.

I am not a math punter, but I learn how to calculate the ECART (French for STDV)

The statistical ECART calculation

First, you have to get the Absolute Ecart when you calculate.
So let's assume you have a sequence with 14 series alternating with 2 singles present.

Then you take 14 - 2 = 12

Now we want to get the statistical Ecart so we continue adding ...

14 + 2 = 16

Now we take the sqr of 16 = 4

And finally, we divide the absolute Ecart whit the sqr

12 sqr 4 = 3,00

The Statistical Ecart 3,00

Details

I already have software that finds windows with a strong imbalance
The window is independent of the random universe and the beginning of birth to what has to come next.
What I like with the progression up one on loss and up one on win is that it only took 7 or 8 winnings to get back on track after one imblance around 16 to 18 overrepresented events.

 

Should also mention that a window should never get beyond 50 events because that is more likely a slow drift into one direction rather than a short or median strong imbalance with the probability to get some underrepresented events to show in a more rapid manner

Cheers

 

Stetson Balley's mention that all selection is the same and write about some alternatives.
That should be the truth and how we view selections.

But is not, we can reduce ourselves and our betting towards variance if we choose to bet on the side only.
Stetson Balley's mentions betting BBPP on a rolling basis, this means that the black swan would be PPBB at any length.

I can illustrate this with one simple example.
I aim to catch series, then singles would become my enemy.
Then I bet both sides and have two possibilities.
The Zig Zag can start with BPBP or start with PBPBP at any length.

Now consider the following march BP and repeat on a rolling basis.
Then I force the random universe to give me one side to become my enemy PB at any length.

So my question is, why be a victim to both sides when I can reduce and face only one enemy?

Cheers

 

Thanks Sputnik for your reply.
I see a little bit clearer now, as the ECART is different to the STD I meant, I thought you mean the Standard Deviation (STD) from statistics. But they are related.

I'll have a look into the numbers again.
Cheers

 

I attach an excel shart using the Z-Score (similar to ECART)
Baccarat, Roulette 0/00 and 0

Cheers

 

I play around with one side only and reach the exact 3.0 Ecart (14 versus 2)
With a 1 Euro base bet, we would have a 70 Euro risk before correction.
Same as other samples we only need the swing to our side by half the imbalance (pretty cool)

 

Hi Sputnik , just wondering this system that you mention before still work good for you or nah?

B P
B
B
B

- - -

B B
B
B
B

 

Jacky, I have been to my local casino twice the past weeks and did not play.
Just observe other players lose money and enjoy some food at the restaurant.

I rarely play when visiting the casino, I do some wheel watching and collect stats.
I am more fascinated about cracking stats than burning cash.

My main hobby is trading football and tennis and I do pretty well.

Cheers

 

@ Sputnik. Do you have a service company you pay for picks or do you pick yourself? I've tried both.

 

I do both. I have a service that has won me a good bit but I also select my own.

 

Judge & cps10
I have used both, but now I only trade football and tennis.
My recommendation's

Sport'trading'life
I buy everything, both the Soccer package and Tennis package and the old Dynamic Soccer/Tennis package.
Would only recommend this package if you are serious to make money and learn to trade.

This is a core method using the correct score market (but the owner don't care so much to give support)
You get a 50% discount on buying from Goalprofits testing sites for tipsters and is worth every penny.
Assure Soccer Profit around 30 Euro with discount.

This is high value for the money and Paul is a great mentor.
Tradeshark (tennis) by Paul - for a 40 Euro fee you get the basics trading portfolio - option subscribe for trading tips (20 Euro a month)

If you need some advice you can continue reading.

In Europe, we have the tradition to show excel charts with placed bets.
Never subscribe to a tipster service who not show placed bets in public.

Goalprofits test different services for three to six months and give a verdict - pass - don't pass.
Horse race, Soccer, Tennis, Crypto.
That is one guideline to trust.

Then you have tipstrr dot com and bettinggods dot com
The minimum is one year of placed bets from the tipster where you can decide to subscribe or not.

A good subscriber might have four months with break-even or a small loss maybe less.
But turn into a positive return on investment during the whole year.

So using a tipster is not a skyrocket and quick money.
You should see it at least one year or more (investment)

Cheers

 

Thanks! My guy shows his plays every day. I have won a lot with him so far but he’s starting to change policies so that it makes it difficult to receive my plays. I play baseball, basketball and American football.