Baccarat mathematical foundation of anti-streak strategies

Hi, comrades. I am going to share what I have studied recently.

A streak means there's a consequent banker wins or player wins(if I use the English term correctly).

So, the anti-streak strategies mean that you bet that the streak will break in the next game. In Macau, we use the term 斬龍(cleaving the dragon) to refer to it.

Is it scientifically reliable? Is it statistically prevailing?

I come across this post and then started to study. It says, see BBB, you bet on P, or vise versa.

How could I get a statistical conclusion on that strategy? It's easy. There are three kinds of streaks:

1. of a length less than 3
2. of the length of 3
3. of a length bigger than 3

So, class 1 will have nothing to do with the strategy, because the trigger is on the third consequent B. We only need to consider the other two classes.

To make the strategy reasonable, we merely need to prove that on a large scale, class 2 is more than class 3, so betting on P will get wins more than loses.

I demonstrated 8000 shoes and then get the following data:



Now you can see, class 2 is more than class 3, so the strategy is statistically reliable.

Now, I will explain how do I calculate the last column in the above table. As the data shows, a length of 3(class 2) occurs 18005 times, a length of 4(class 3) occurs 8485 times, a length of 5... We need to know which is more class2 or class 3, so
18005/(18005+(8485+4306+2018+1040+...))=50.86%. It means class 2 is more than class 3.

Furthermore, this phenomenon prevails on other lengths also, as the table shows. So theoretically bet on P will always make sense after a consequent B series.

Conclusion: the strategy is statistically reasonable, but we need to consider the commission(if bet on B after PPP) and the volatility.

 

I omitted some other rows for the length of 8 9 10 11 12 13... in the above table.

It's so crazy I want to modify it but there are only five minutes to do that.

Due to my limited English skills and the restriction of the strange policy of this forum, I don't want to take more effort to share. I hope it will make some inspiration to people who are interested in studying if they can understand my post.

 

Nothing new here , but thanks for posting, it’s a typical bell curve.

The real answer is the question when you make it profitable. Good luck. Cheers

 

You need to construct rules on how you want to manage those streaks. I wouldn’t concentrate on anything longer than 4 though. There’s just not enough of those in the average shoe to make it worthwhile. Unless you are incorporating a one off play in the middle of your regular play.

 

If you're young, nibble and ballsy, playing in a joint with lots of tables, you jump around a lot, a sure-fire winner.

 

There are plenty of ways to tackle this phenomenon. We all know long term - which has nothing to do with short term - that chops will happen 50% of the time; streaks of two 25% of the time (we won’t get into two chops in a row etc); streaks of three 12.5% of the time; and streaks of four 6.25% of the time. Do what you will with that information. There are progressions you can use to tackle these over the course of your play (please do not use a Marty!). If you have BBB bet P. If it loses, wait till the next. Out of 100 of these possible bets, only 5 or 6 more should lose. I emphasize SHOULD. It could be more (many more) and it could be less. But let’s say over the course of 100 tries that is loses 20 times. That’s three times more than it should long run but remember we play in the short run. That’s 80 winning bets and 20 losing bets. Even if all 80 wins are from betting Banker, you still even flat betting should win:

80 x 0.95 = 76 minus 20 losers = 56 net win

This is why I think using a Marty can be detrimental. Suppose of those 20 losses, 10 of them are in a row? Then you’re wiped out. If you must play with a progression, there are plenty that can keep you in the game without losing your ass.

I would suggest Junket King’s cancellation method. If you have a bad patch, you can make it up gradually.

Also keep in mind that whereas the odds against four in a row are very low, the probability of each hand is the same: roughly 50/50.

 

Ideal strategy for this guy

 

Guys, open your mind.

There's not only manual playing but also robot playing which can continuously do repeating work.

Don't forget in some casinos (both brick and mortar, and online ones) offer a turnover commission to customers. If you have a strategy that can win long term(at least won't lose), you have a stable way to earn the commission.