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Roulette Measuring Success

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by Klausy, Nov 7, 2021.

  1. Klausy

    Klausy Member

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    What would be the best way to measure success on flat bets? For example if someone starting at zero on RSim say after 100 spins had built up a 20k balance using only the same 100 chips on every bet (so no progression), is there some way we could use a formula to say we could be 95% or whatever sure it wasn’t down to chance?
    Clearly if the sample was smaller, like 10 spins, some lucky bets could skew things so I appreciate the more spins involved the more this would be smoothed out.
    Thanks
     
  2. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    For starters, reduce it to dollar units. You're only winning 200 units or $200 if they were dollar units...just random.
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2021
  3. Klausy

    Klausy Member

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    Yes that probably wasn’t a great example as it would depend on starting bankroll, how much is bet each spin etc but is was more a general question of how to measure if a method is successful
     
  4. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I would say to calculate the expected loss for any given number of spins
    and then compare to how far away from that in profit that you are.
    Flat betting would be easy to figure out - using various betting amounts would mean
    keeping track of the total amount bet over 37 spins and then divide by 37 - that is the amount
    you should be down due to the house edge.
    $100.00 per spin for 37 spins means after 37 spins you should be down $100.00 (1 unit)

    In your example, $100.00 per spin for 100 spins you should be down -$270.27
    The difference between that negative value and your positive position is what matters.
    So you have 8 or 9 wins over 100 spins so your results are +3.27 to +3.88 std deviation
    if it is on straight up numbers. Regardless that is well above "normal" results.
     
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  5. Klausy

    Klausy Member

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    Thanks turbo, that’s very useful.
     
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  6. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Measuring your success over 100 spins is statistically irrelevant.
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2021
  7. Klausy

    Klausy Member

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    Well, not if you only bet on one number on each of those spins and they all won. Hence why I was searching for some formula or way of working it out at what point does an edge become statistically real.
     

  8. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    No kidding. That wasn't his question... it was how to measure it.
     
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  9. Keyser Soze

    Keyser Soze Active Member

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    The simplest way is you have to win more than you lose.

    For me in my case, I just need to have a surplus of +3 wins then I walk out.
    I prefer to have many “little” wins over a long period time as opposed to having one major win.

    Never underestimate the power of compounding.
     
  10. Klausy

    Klausy Member

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    Thanks but my method is imperfect, bad days are a given so I tend to look at individual sessions when practicing hence I’m looking at judging success on smaller sample sizes
     
  11. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    You ask a good question.

    SirAnyone will never give you the answer.
    His demand for millions of spins is statistically wrong. By this, you should know he has no knowledge about statistics other than his usual copy and paste.

    Benas will not reply to your thread because he has no knowledge.

    Later, MJ will provide the answer. He loves to show off the little statistics knowledge he self learnt. Just be patient.
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2021
    TwoUp and thereddiamanthe like this.
  12. Shank

    Shank Active Member

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    If it's flat-bet, forget about your bankroll.

    Play it for +3000 spins, sum up how many numbers you played each spin (EC = 18, SU = 1, etc.) and how many hits you received, calculate your hit rate like this: (Hits/Total Numbers Played)

    If it's significantly better than 1/37 (2.70%), repeat the test. If the results were consistent, you have a winning bet selection. Cheers.
     
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  13. Klausy

    Klausy Member

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    Thanks Shank. For my purposes I was really looking for measuring it against a realistic b&m casino session length, ie. 1.5 hours at a table would be I guess around 40 spins so I was trying to gauge where the cutoff would be between a lucky streak and a genuine edge on that sort of session length.
     
  14. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

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    cht, you declare yourself an EXPERT (and you hide it so well, too!), so let's see your answer.
     

  15. Shank

    Shank Active Member

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    Measuring the success of a flat-bet system needs way more spins. Most of the flat-bet systems win until they don't any more! It's better to find out your system is not a winner sooner before the bad streak against it shows up. However, you won't be losing much since it's only betting 1u each spin. In fact, you might end up losing 2.70% of the chips you put down on the felt each round. The wasted time is the real loss here.
     
  16. Klausy

    Klausy Member

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    Well as I referred to earlier, if I bet on one number on each of those 40 spins and they all won, what are the chances of that? I guess millions or billions to one. If we would expect 1 or 2 hits then if I got say 10 hits, is this still in lucky break territory or are the chances so small that with 99.999% confidence we could say there is an edge? I really don’t know.
    So I would say that even in a sample size of 40 spins there should be a way of working this out. If I bet 4 numbers on each spin then maybe I need, I don’t know, 20 hits.
    I was just wondering if someone had thought about this before and come up with anything, it’s fine if not.
    Cheers
     
  17. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

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    Klausy,

    You are correct. I have to disagree with Dr Sir when he says that 100 bets is meaningless. I've already brought this up in the other thread, and in all cases the question you have to ask is : would this result likely have occurred by chance? If not, and the probability is very small that it would, then that's "statistically significant". It's always better to have a bigger sample size, but actually the stats books say that you only need a sample size of at least 30. 100 would be better though.

    I don't have time to post the details now, and also I want to see what LuckyFella's answer is, so I'll post again later.
     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2021
  18. Klausy

    Klausy Member

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    Ok thanks
     
  19. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    If you merely disagree with SirAnyone you showing your ignorance.

    SirAnyone is wrong.
    No surprise since he copy and paste about math.

    That's what you should write.
    Because it's true and correct to say that.

    You should also write the supposed math expert Benas can't give the answer because he is a fake.

    I wrote I am THE EXPERT in systems betting.

    Read carefully and correctly.
    Stop spreading strawman lies on forum.
    Write truthfully. Which you won't.

    Your lies attempts will not change this fact that I am THE EXPERT in systems betting.

    If anyone is interested about the math watch this video. And do further research into this topic.

    Important note - This statistics topic will not tell you how to design the winning systems bet.

    That's why MJ is a loser event hough he knows


     
    Last edited: Nov 8, 2021
  20. precogm

    precogm Active Member

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    Hey klausy,

    Hope your well and improving on your skills.

    I've struggled with the same question when testing precog. There is no way around the question of variance. Our method of play is slow so we can never produce millions of spins while keeping our method consistent.

    The other thing to take in to account is the number of variables at play. For example let's take the full moon. From research we have found psi seems to improve during a full moon. I have personally found this to be the case too. If you did not know this but practiced a non effective method you might attribute that method to your success and not the full moon. This then creates a string of dead ends and wasted time pursuing the wrong method.

    Coming back to variance. I believe the best approach is to first identify what the most important factors or variables are then simply make a spreadsheet and attempt these in 1 or 2 at a time, noting down how you felt before, during and after the result. Taking breaks between attempts is very important. If you do not take breaks your logical mind will interfere too much when you win. This is subtle and can give invalid results.

    Winrate in general is more important then bankroll that is why I prefer MPR over rsim because it has this calculated automatically on the leaderboard.

    I believe if you have a winrate of 1.5 you can be happy with yourself.

    If you remember the Russians I shared at rf.cc even they admit they do not win all the time, but their success rate is much higher than average. This I believe is the most realistic goal.

    I test on other games beside roulette so I get a better understanding of the psi mechanism involved. If you are scoring high on all games it would demonstrate true psi ability.

    In terms of measurement on rsim I would say all outside bets should be avoided, only flat bet on numbers. I would say if you bet 4 numbers at a time, getting it right first time should be your target. If you're betting 2 numbers then within 4 spins, and so on.
     

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