1. Welcome to the #1 Gambling Community with the best minds across the entire gambling spectrum. REGISTER NOW!
  2. Have a gambling question?

    Post it here and our gambling experts will answer it!
    Dismiss Notice
  3. Discussions in this section are assumed to be EV- as they are outside of the Advantage Play section. For EV+ discussions, please visit the Advantage Play section.
    Dismiss Notice

Baccarat Money Management concepts for Rustyshackleford

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Junket King, Jul 20, 2019.

  1. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    124
    Occupation:
    ABR Complusive LIAR Management
    Location:
    Manage the LIARS & you Control the Game
    Probably as valuable as breaking one's bankroll into thirds and never bringing the last third in action no matter what.
     
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2019
    Natural9 likes this.
  2. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    3,040
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    I'm not saying that you can predict guessing. If that was it then it would be pointless to discuss gambling regardless to the contrary. I'm saying you can know when you are in a win streak and that you can know when you are in a losing streak. It has nothing to do with prediction. You can know if the win streaks continues and you can know when the win streak ends. Well, at least I can. People get all excited when they go into a win streak and then they plow away with all their winnings trying to hang on to that emotion when it all turns down on them. People need to ride the waves of success and proceed cautiously when the win streak is not happening. This is a skill. If it is garbage to some, who cares about them anyway. Somebody has to keep the lights on. It might as well be the math guys.
     
  3. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    3,040
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    First we have magic Roulette dealers and now we have magic Baccarat shoes that are out to get you. They don't have a pill for stupid yet but you can always take your own medicine and admit that this 19 in row was just common randomness and not the boggy man out to get you.
     
  4. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    124
    Occupation:
    ABR Complusive LIAR Management
    Location:
    Manage the LIARS & you Control the Game
    One thing I wanted to add to this, it came to me afterwards.

    When you step back to analyse things, accurately identifying a problem before you can look for a solution. A kinda "white board" brainstorming type thing.

    In the game of Baccarat, you can not predict at any stage which side will win, there is no edge for any single outcome, therefore you run the risk of hitting consecutive losses and there is nothing you can do about it. If you stop, go to another table, when you restart, you can equally hit more losses in a row, it is the nature of the beast. Is their a solution to this? Answer No.

    Okay, fine, you have to accept that, but what generally happens when we are losing consecutive hands?


    Once you figured that out you will soon realise, the actual problem is not so much losing consecutive hands, rather it is "what are they costing me". Now you have defined the cause and effect, there is little you can do regarding the cause, it's a 50-50 game, but you can control the effect. I've no issue with losing 6, 8 or 10 in a row if they were all 1u bets, yet I do realise and accept I will have to pick up my bet level at some stage.

    Very few of the progressions you read about on the web address the issue, certainly the Fibo, A'Lam, Labby, Marty etc, can't handle rough patches that we all experience, when it appears your on the end of bad beat after bad beat. Some of the esoteric ones fair a little better than others such as Guetting.

    So you need to be able to smooth out the losses, assuming your bet selection is decent enough, the bell curve will swing in your favour, provided you can ride out the rough patches, lousy shoes. You may have you own way of handling things, personally I use "multi-banks" as I've outlined. Flat betting forever isn't going to cut it and everything I've done in the past indicates betting positive ain't going to cut it either. But let's leave that for another time.

    The problem isn't losing decisions, it is their effect if you are not wise or disciplined enough. I vividly recall the first time I ever played Baccarat, I bought in for $200, betting $25 per hand, I lost 7 bets and won 1 (LOL), then lost twice more. But it was cool, I realised during my short novice time at the table, it was a money game, how much you have and more importantly how you put it to use. The cards are merely a mechanism to determine if you get paid or the casino keeps your money, it's that simple. When it comes to MM, you have cluely, good under pressure, have lots of options in your head and at your disposal.

    Just want to add, how many times have we seen somebody buyin for 1000 and their first bet is say 200 or 300, assuming they have no more bankroll, that is nuts, how many units are they playing with?
     
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2019
    Natural9, Joey Torres and bob like this.
  5. bob

    bob Member

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2018
    Likes:
    26
    Location:
    bermuda triangle
    JK, this is a john patrick tactic to build discipline in newbie"s, that they dont have to lose everything in their wallets, and should leave after 2 losing sessions as its just not their day, i dont mind it, as most gamberlers will bet their train fare home my wife included.
    I enjoyed your post above right on the money as usual. I too have the theory that live dealer online 6 deck shoes streak and have easy to follow patterns that you dont see that much in b+m"s.
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  6. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    124
    Occupation:
    ABR Complusive LIAR Management
    Location:
    Manage the LIARS & you Control the Game
    I see lots of different MM listed on this site, but don't see any mention of the Silverthorne's Neural strategy. It's somewhere in between a Fibonacci and D'Alembert. It's not as drastic as Fibonacci but you don't have to grind as much as the D'Alembert. For example you might go
    1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20.

    I'm new to the game of baccarat but have played it a few times with mixed results. I went through 4-5 shoes using FLD with 10-20 unit wins and then had back-to-back 20 unit losses which has made me reconsider this approach.

    I was curious if anybody else had ever tried anything similar.

    Sometimes the progressive bet can take my breath away. Breaking a big loss into parts is quite useful. Oftentimes, you will get all of your funds back and then a little more.

    I have had that happen before. When I am back to zero, I leave and come back another day. Too much resistance on the bac tables makes me retreat.

    Forcing a bet in desperation is the quickest way to lose your bankroll.
     
    Junket King and eugene like this.
  7. eugene

    eugene Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2016
    Likes:
    415
    Location:
    united kingdom
    There used to be a guy who posted regular on 'Heavy's' Dice Forum who was into the neural strategy. I think he made a few tweaks to it as well and seemed to be getting good results. He was the guy who always used to cross the Mexican border to get surgery done. Unfortunately, I think the guy passed away several years ago but was always a good read just for his humour and stories. I don't remember his name but sure he had the number 7 in his username. He used to break down his trip-reports and go through things hand by hand or roll by roll. Anybody could do worse than trying to look up some of his old posts if they wanted to get the gist of the Neural Strategy.
     

  8. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 25, 2014
    Likes:
    2,080
    Eugene ,


    A character like that who traveled to Mexico for medical treatments was also posting at the John Patrick message board .

    Some one notified the board that he had died . I do not recall his name either .



    ND
     
    eugene likes this.
  9. eugene

    eugene Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 29, 2016
    Likes:
    415
    Location:
    united kingdom
    Hello Nathan,

    That's right! He mixed the 'Neural Strategy' along with John Patrick's 'Ricochet' System and claimed some really good wins on the game of craps turning a couple of 4 figure bankrolls into 5 figures. He didn't grind it out with $5 or $10 bets either!

    His name was Jim AKA 'wolfbyte' on the Axis Power Craps Forum. I think he posted as WT7 on a few of the others.

    http://www.axispowercraps.com/crapsforum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=152&hilit=wt7+neural

    One thing....this guy was BIG on testing as Soxfan was alluding to regarding his own methods. Can't argue with that!
     
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2019
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  10. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2014
    Likes:
    671
    Here's the Neural Strategy. He gets stymied by the doubles. I wondered why he didn't include them as part of a streak which he seemed to do at the outset? I guess you got to give up something.
     

    Attached Files:

    Junket King and eugene like this.
  11. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2016
    Likes:
    818
    Location:
    FrozenTundra
    Why would the streak signature for six deck shoe be different from the eight deck shoe, hey hey?
     
  12. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2016
    Likes:
    818
    Location:
    FrozenTundra
    Yeah, the wolfbyte was a serious cat, and he outline his style in this posting on the heavy forum, hey hey.
    http://www.axispowercraps.com/crapsforum/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=152
     
  13. bob

    bob Member

    Joined:
    Oct 15, 2018
    Likes:
    26
    Location:
    bermuda triangle
    Imo the shoes online 6 deck, are more streaky than 8 deck in b&m"s, just an observation, i have no stats to back this up, check out Junkets King shoes in the live shoes b&m thread.
     
    Junket King likes this.
  14. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    124
    Occupation:
    ABR Complusive LIAR Management
    Location:
    Manage the LIARS & you Control the Game
    I would tend to agree, 6 deck shoes blow expected stats out the window. Dislike playing 6 deck games, it weird having seen the longest chop run of 22 hands on a 8 deck game, only to see the same thing happen in a six deck game, which has fewer cards, fewer hands.

    The shoes I posted in the B&M thread are 8 deck games...
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2019
    Natural9 likes this.

  15. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    124
    Occupation:
    ABR Complusive LIAR Management
    Location:
    Manage the LIARS & you Control the Game
    Here is the JP Regress system;
    (I'm sure some contributors to this thread will recognise this super secret system that should not be revealed publicly.)

    Divide your available BR into 3.

    $450 / 3, $150 per session, $600 /3, $200 per session.

    Consider the table minimum, $5, then suggested amount $200, accepted amount $150.
    $10 table, suggested $400, accepted $300. (great dividing 400 by 3!!!!)

    First bet 2u, if you win, regress to 1u. Next bet 2u, if you win, regress 1u.

    The Regress LOCKS IN PROFIT, provided you win of course, if you lose, then revert back to 2u.

    Obviously lose a few bets, then JP suggests this table is not for you, hot foot it out of there (all this advice is ringing bells)!!!!

    A great winning system if ever I saw one.

    No doubting JP he made more money from his books and TV channel appearances than putting his gambling advice into practise in the real world.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2019
    Natural9 likes this.
  16. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    124
    Occupation:
    ABR Complusive LIAR Management
    Location:
    Manage the LIARS & you Control the Game
    Rusty, one thing regarding gambling forums, you have to be able to differentiate between the wheat and chaff.

    https://www.gamblingforums.com/threads/rigged-or-not.9140/page-2#post-67299

    A winning Baccarat system since 1996 from somebody who doesn't even play the game, well maybe they did, the once, therefore that statement would indeed be true :D:D
     
    Natural9 and Jimske like this.
  17. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2014
    Likes:
    671
    I have no data between 6 and 8 deck shoes but I don't see why number of decks should change overall frequency. One would think if that's true that ate dick shoes we have greater run lengths then six dicks shoes just because it's more cards.

    There is an old controversy about Shuffle procedure and cards clumping that may or may not create different patterns compared to RNG. This controversy will never end. But if you're playing a game based on mathematical odds like JK does for instance then of course something like this could be your nemesis. On the other hand if you're simply playing a guess or specific bet selection then the only thing that really matters is betting.
     
  18. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    124
    Occupation:
    ABR Complusive LIAR Management
    Location:
    Manage the LIARS & you Control the Game
    My belief is 6 decks fewer cards, hence fewer variables, decrease in randomness pertaining to streak frequency, (yeah word salad I know).

    I think this should and can be put to bed, without a doubt shuffle procedures matter. Shoes shuffled by angel machines most definitely are characteristically different from non-shimmied 3 times riffled decks. This is something that I am acutely aware of. The introduction of angel technology at a particular casino brought my never to be repeated continuous success to a grinding halt. Another prime example are those shoes I post in the "live shoes "B&M" thread, I don't see these monster runs at any casinos in the UK and I do know why.
     
    Natural9 likes this.
  19. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    124
    Occupation:
    ABR Complusive LIAR Management
    Location:
    Manage the LIARS & you Control the Game
    Returning back to J's post ref: Fibonacci

    This could just be me playing with numbers but I post it here for criticism.

    A normal fibo has your next bet equal to the amount of your last two bets. I adjusted this so your next bet is only equal to all of the prior bet and only half ( or the small half considering odd numbers) of the bet before that.
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 lost bets

    the Fibo 1 1 1 2 3 5 8 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 = 387u, next bet 233u and a trip to the looney bin

    modified 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 7 9 12, 16 = 64u, next bet 22u, not too bad......yet

    You could adjust it more, with less 1's in the beginning, skip the double 2. Use the big half instead of the little half of the odd numbers. Calculate 75% of the second to last bet instead of 50%.

    It loses the magic of a lightning quick recovery that a full fibo offers. But also takes quite a bit of the sting out too. The modified must be bet backwards 1 step at a time were the fibo steps back 3 at a time. The fibo resolves to 0, but the modified does not have to work its way all the way back to the first single unit bet. The bet won, is your profit. So if you won the 16u bet, you only have to step down the ladder to winning the 5u bet, this will provide 1u of profit. If you make it all the way back to the first 1u bet, you are up 16u.

    I'm sure this has been worked out before.
     
    Junket King and bob like this.
  20. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

    Joined:
    Jun 5, 2016
    Likes:
    124
    Occupation:
    ABR Complusive LIAR Management
    Location:
    Manage the LIARS & you Control the Game
    Proven by whom?? Far from it. Bet 2u if win regress, lock in profit, series over, so far so good. If lose, errmmm, bet 2 units, and then bet 2 units, lose again, leave the table, pull out next 3rd of bankroll, lose 2u at new table, skids are forming. No way in the world to recoup by continuing to bet 2 units, didn't work in 1996, nor will today. I really don't know what is with these John Patrick devotee's, it's like they all indocrinated like a bunch of Scientologists. That Capt over at GG was the worst, I'm sure he'd walk on fire for JP.
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2019
    Natural9 likes this.

Share This Page