Roulette Monty Hall plays roulette

Disclaimer:

1. This is not the "Holy Grail".
2. This will not overcome the house edge.
3. This system is silly and played for fun only.
4. I probably am a moron.

Having said that....................

Do you know of the "Monty Hall Paradox"? The one with the goats and cars? Well, if you don't Google it. Or Marilyn Voss Savant and goats. Or any combination thereof.....

Basically, if you switch, you have a better chance of winning the car AFTER you know one of the two doors that hides the goat.

How, I asked myself, could we apply that to roulette?

I shall wait until all the harsh comments are posted before I continue.

TwoCat

 

Bring it on Sammy !!!!

It's a Paradox I've always found interesting......

More on it here :-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

 

Me too Sam

 

It would be nice if we could, but each spin is independent of the ones before it - unlike the mysteries behind the doors because whatever is there doesn't change as you pick doors.
Shucks.
Smiles.

 

Turbo,

Have you been up to the Aqueduct Casino?

 

No, not yet anyway.

 

There are many ways to select a bet at a roulette wheel or RNG device. While on my last trip to Riverwind, two rather loud gents played birthdays and walked away with over $100 in a matter of minutes. Seriously! Another fellow played a Martingale and was confronted with 14 reds in a row while waiting for black.

I have many fun ways to play. On other forums I have always said that if it is not fun, I'll not do it. I am not seeking to make big bucks, but only to break even and win some comp money and a couple of free buffets.

Do you get my drift that this is only another amongst thousands of ways to have a little fun?

OK......................

We have three dozens. We write down a number. 1, 2, or 3. That's all. Just write it down.

We wait for a spin. One of three things can happen:

1. Green comes and we shriek with laughter and flash obscene hand gestures at the wheel.
2. Monty opens the door with the car. By mistake, mind you. That is to say, the number we wrote down just won. No game. Write down another number and wait for another outcome.
3. Monty shows us a goat. That is, your number or green did not come. Now we play for real.

Say you wrote down 2 and 3 won. (3 is the goat, you see.) According to the video, you switch to 1. Do you have a better chance to win? Search me! Onward.... Naturally either dozen 1, 2, or 3 or green will occur. If you switched to 1, the game is over and you won. If you switched to 1 and your original selection of 2 won, well tough. But suppose the unthinkable happened and another goat appeared. That is 3 won again. Unlike the real goat/car problem where the goat could only be see once, here he rears his ugly head for the second time. Plus his ugly nanny, green, could appear for him.

Only when that happens do I use a progression. I like one up on a loss and two down on a win. A D'Alembert, I think, modified.

I'm sure the laws of probability dictate that had I never did anything but bet on a single dozen, I would always have the same outcome. I could have a test sheet written for $25.00 and prove it.

But I'd rather live the illusion that I have stumbled onto something great!

TwoCat

 

Because Monty Hall isn't a ball.

The roulette ball knows nothing. It rolls around the wheel without knowing which numbers came up before, or which numbers you would like to come up.

Monty knows where the prize is and where the goats are. He will always open a door showing a goat, because he always can.

I think we can all agree that in the standard version, you have a 1/3 chance of picking the prize on your first guess.
Now in the 2/3 chance where you didn't pick the prize, he tells you something. He tells you where the prize isn't and thus where it is. You forced his hand. There was one and only one door he could open. And there was a 2/3 chance of you forcing his hand.
Only when you did pick the prize, he doesn't impart information on you. But there's only a 1/3 chance of that happening.

 

How about looking at it a different way ?

Monty Hall basically says "swap your 1st pick", so why not look at Dozs past spins "to predict"
the Cols & Cols past spins "to predict" the Dozs ?

 

Today I must scratch the Earth and plant fescue. Not much brain work involved so I will dwell on this idea.

Thanks, d

Samster

 

By now I have identified myself as the forum nut, so what can a little bit more hurt? Huh?

Suspend your disbelief: Superman can fly, zombies will eat you and Obamacare is good for America!

Suppose the god of roulette--whomever that may be--came to my computer and said, "Sam, log on and pick a dozen!" and I did. I picked dozen 3. Reus then told me that on the next spin, dozen 1 would lose. Reus does not lie. Now I am armed with true knowledge. So I switch from 3 to 2. Assuming the scenario is true, have I increased my chances from 1/3 to 2/3?

Now I fully well know that the 1 can hit again. I've taken Roulette 101, for Pete's sake. (Please spare me the lectures for those who are looking at the wheel for the first time.)

Anyone.........

Think outside the casino and in the goat barn!! (Geez, I crack me up!!)

Sam

 

Having not been told not to..............

I have named the god of roulette Reus, much like Zeus. I have copyrighted the word, so if you use it in your next book, I will sue!! Feel free to use it on the forum.

Sam

 

At the table, you can't do that. It would be as if Monty stopped the spin, and showed you 1/3rd of the pockets that would lose, and then resumed the spin. Looking to past spins is of no value, whatsoever, unless you're using the information to judge the fitness of the gaming device/dealing procedure. Monty would make it possible only if it took place during the specific spin.

After each spin has taken place:

The same number of pockets remain on the wheel.
Each number has the same chance of hitting within the random game.
The probability of winning remains the same from one spin to the next.

 

Gentlemen

I think this thread has pretty much run its course.

Thanks to all who replied and to those who didn't take me to the woodshed.

Sam I Am

 

So If your not using a computer or VB or some kinda dealer signature how do you go about winning at Roulette Dr.Sir ?

& BTW I was just saying Monty hall basically says "swap your 1st pick" that's all I was doing. I never said you could change the odds, you cannot...

& it's v easy to say you cannot win at roulette, we all know this.....