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Roulette More silliness from RouletteGhost & company

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by mr j, May 25, 2017.

  1. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    You decide. Both players have an edge of 6%. Both players have the same $1,000 bankroll.

    Player one flat bets $50 per spin for 10k spins (plays off an on over a month) and wins...$30,000 but along the way has a reasonable chance of losing his entire bankroll before he can win the full $30k.

    Player two bets just one percent of his bankroll at each spin. His initial bet is just $10 and he has very little change of going broke before playing all 10k spins because he can theoretically nearly infinitely subdivide his bankroll in the event of a losing stretch. In the end he wins approximately $403,000!

    Mathematically it makes the most sense to run the progression that bets a percentage of your bankroll because it enables you to take advantage of the compounding interest like effect!

    The idea bet is (edge/expectancy) x (confidence level) = Bank to bet ratio.
     
    Last edited: May 30, 2018
  2. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Active Member

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    Not especially but the Kelly Criterion is a kind of progression. Optimal bet... And of course you'll win much more with the K. criterion than if you flat bet (assuming the player has an edge)...
     
  3. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Active Member

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    Instead of this, can we just use 1% of the bank as your example describes? Or would we miss a lot?
     
    Last edited: May 30, 2018
  4. mr j

    mr j Well-Known Member

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    If he HAS an edge. To me, if I had an edge (up for debate), I would not need/want to risk a progression.

    Ken
     
  5. mr j

    mr j Well-Known Member

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    YEP
     
  6. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    The idea bet is (edge/expectancy) x (confidence level) = Bank to bet ratio. This is basically the Kelly. What I've added in is a confidence level multiplier.

    And YES it only works if the player has the edge.
    If the Kelly was used in the example above, then the player would have won millions.
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2018
  7. mr j

    mr j Well-Known Member

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    I just want to make sure I got this (lol), a certain type of AP play along with a progression = good?

    Ken
     
  8. mr j

    mr j Well-Known Member

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    Cats & dogs living together

    [​IMG]
     
  9. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    IF you have the edge, then run a progression until you reach the max table bet. You'll win vastly more money.

    I'm speaking from experience.
     
  10. mr j

    mr j Well-Known Member

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    Is this an exact equation (can you type it out?) or assumption?

    Ken
     
  11. mr j

    mr j Well-Known Member

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    Now you have me thinking about getting back into the progression world. Which I dont want to do. I'm so comfy now flat betting.

    Ken
     
  12. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Active Member

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    There's more Ken... if he would want, a player who have an edge he could observe the max drop and start to play, and that wouldn't be a non sense.
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2018
  13. Bombus

    Bombus Active Member

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    Do it Ken! You'll clean up for sure.
    And, you can come on here and bag the shit out of anyone who says they flat bet!... LOL
     
  14. mr j

    mr j Well-Known Member

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    You have not pulled that trigger yet? Get to it Bottomfeeder Bombus/Trilobite.
    HaHaHaHa;)
     
  15. mr j

    mr j Well-Known Member

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    From Ignatus, regarding Turbos method >> BUT problem IS all of a sudden let's say 7-8 numbers bet (more or less) with 5u bet FALL AsLEEP (as it happen with me) THEN everything goes to hell, (and that can happen very quickly) witch such a progression,...it's a very risky style of play
    --------------------------------------------------------

    I like Ignatus, he's cool with me and Turbo is my bud. I have no way of knowing if he is following the rules exactly, I have no clue.
    Lets say Ignatus is. (not an insult to Turbo), Ignatus, you again are playing a style that includes *UNTIL*. What did I say about that?

    Fuck *UNTIL*.......thats why you SAT on those numbers with no hits, because of....UNTIL.

    My way (it should be your way) I have fail safes in my hot number method(s). So I am not stuck in a waiting pattern.

    Never use UNTIL or any variation of UNTIL in ANY roulette method!!! Its a BR killer.

    Ken
     
  16. Bombus

    Bombus Active Member

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    I play UNTIL I'm too drunk to continue, or UNTIL the wife calls and says, "where are you, when are you coming home?" Or UNTIL one of my casino buddies says, "come on you're well in front, scrap this game lets go upstairs for a feed and some free drinks". Or UNTIL I start yawning every few minutes and the eye lids keep falling, or UNTIL my bladder can't stand anymore fluid expansion (reset, or not), or UNTIL I'm content with what I've accomplished for the night, or UNTIL I've lost more than I'm comfortable with given the time it will take to recover the drawdown, especially because by now I'm probably more than half pissed, the wife keeps harassing me with phone calls, my mates keep leaning over my shoulder saying let's go eat, I'm as sleepy as Rumpelstiltskin and busting for a piss.
     
  17. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Active Member

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    If this is the same system that i ve seen Turbo play with on Parx online, i understand his(ignatus) opinion. A system that can lose quickly 400 units and more is a dangerous system for your bank and for your boxer shorts.

    And of course, on fun mode there's no stress...
     
  18. Bago

    Bago Active Member

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    In the real Casino also, just take some Extasy with Vodka shots and start martingaling. Believe it or not but when I was playing every week-end in my local Casino I found out that the gamblers that won the most were drunk, it is possible that the fear of losing when you are "normal" affects your decisions contrary to when you are in another world lol
     
  19. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Active Member

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    I was also wondering what you two MrJ&Bombus would say to someone that doesn't change the unit size but only change the payout (Pivot style) Is he 1/2 right or 1/2 wrong :)

    1/2 - 1/3 - 1/6 - 1/9 - 1/18 - 1/36

    @Bago

    I'm totally agree with this, i also seen a drunk old woman took in 10 minutes 2k with 50€ when she started... They are not scared to lose money that they earned and the initial bank. I never seen any flat bet player make a rampage, to win big = bet big... that's why i like positive progressions... (the only reason why there are bets limits)

    And i like to think that around us there s a field that will send you back what you're focusing on ( drunk or not :) ... )
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2018
  20. mr j

    mr j Well-Known Member

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