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Roulette More silliness from RouletteGhost & company

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by mr j, May 25, 2017.

  1. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    THEY TOO are walking among us . ...............
     
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  2. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Well-Known Member

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    From Gizmotron @R30 "AP people with regards to timing hits are the funniest people in bozo land. There is no way they can do it without a computer. "

    From scepticus on the same topic "I agree with gizmo here. AP- VB - Bias Play is mainly Bull.... ! "

    The only idea those guys would think about to come out of the well is keep digging... I guess it's easier to deny than trying to understand something we don't know anything about...
     
  3. John Blerg

    John Blerg Well-Known Member 👹 Troll 👹

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    Sheep, why don't you focus on yourself and winning money instead of all the bashing and all the hatred towards everybody else ???? are you a police. Department psychiatrist?????!
     
  4. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Well-Known Member

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    I only go two days a week coz i do spend quite a lot of time when i go.

    You can easily answer this question... when you were talking about borrowed money lost... Why at that time you were not winning money instead?
     
  5. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Why drag in R 30 and or RF cc nuttiness when we have ample supply right here on GF ? Just read some of the Baccarat or Roulette topics.Fiction and half truths .
     
  6. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    For the recreational player roulette is by far the better choice for a table game . Not knocking Baccarat but one better does not stay too long at a table .

    ND
     
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  7. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Well-Known Member

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    Well Nathan, my friend taught me every player should interest to the "desirability index" of any game before play (they'll never do it but they should)... It is about volatility of the game and @roulette volatility is very big which is not good when you got an edge of 3% for example. But we can say it is "good" actually for a -2.7% player.

    A recreational player should know about that volatility (absolutely) because it means you can surf and make a lot of money on a "high volatility" with you BUT this is the same volatility that makes people believe they are Super Master of roulette till another strong volatility (against the player this time) will finish his Bankroll or all he'll be agree to leave on the table. Super Trap
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2018

  8. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Sharptracker ,


    In reference to my post # 1461 a player can never lose the bankroll if the MM instructions are being followed .



    Nathan Detroit
     
  9. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Well-Known Member

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    The best MM (when you got an edge) is the Kelly Criterion... It is just math and it is the optimal way to bet you bankroll and even if it is the best way, the risk of ruin is big, that's why AP use to split and only play a fraction of Kelly Criterion. So i clearly doubt that John Patrick 's one can do better...
     
  10. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Well-Known Member

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    @Bombus

    Sorry mate i just saw your previous post!
    Very good post & totally agree with it. And of course Ken is not an exception, unfortunetely.
     
  11. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    @Sharptracker ,


    Have you ever tried the Full or Half Kelly criterion ? Your verdict ?


    ND
     
  12. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Well-Known Member

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    Of course i did, verdict is it is a "gamble" if you play full Kelly Criterion. Many Ap play an half or even a 1/4.

    Let me give you an example:

    I have an edge of 2.7%, my BK is 10000$ i bet 20$ on 20K spins with my edge. My risk of ruin is 37% (37 games on 100 my BK will be smoked)
    I still have an edge of 2.7%, my BK is 10000$ i bet 20$ on 500K spins. My risk of ruin is now 49%
    I still have an edge of 2.7%, my BK is still 10000$ and i bet optimal bet 7.30$ (full Kelly) on 500K spins. My risk of ruin is now 14%.

    And we're talking about a game with an edge of 2.7% in your favor. And at the same time you see some people claiming that they can overcome the game with their negative edge while it is allready not obvious as we can see with an edge...
     
  13. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Well-Known Member

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    I'd like to add Nathan that if we can have those results it is because of a big standart deviation of the game (big volatility).

    It is because of big volatility that let you be ahead that -2.7% players can dream. It is because also that big volatility that for example people find their motivation to play lotery...

    @lotery players know it is pure luck because you only need to hit once (even if i seen people trying to build a system...) but @roulette it takes much more time, players will often think that their results are due to their skills instead to understand that it is because of a big standart deviation.
     
  14. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Thanks for your detailed reply.

    According to the Kelly information this criterion is also applicable to several other games .


    ND
     
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  15. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Well-Known Member

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    It is applicable on any game where you have an edge. Normally you should reajust your size bet everytime your bakroll is moving but it's not confortable, better to predetermine levels and everytime your bk is reaching one of them, you're betting the associate size bet.
     
  16. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Well , it is obvious that the Kelly criterion is not geared to a short term player . There are many different options to skin a cat sorry a casino.

    ND
     
  17. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    By the same token one could increase a bankroll by a conservative 20 % instead of shooting for the moon .


    ND
     
  18. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Well-Known Member

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    Why not? Look another simple example to see how powerful it is:

    Here are the conditions: The casino suggest you to bet 100 times with a bank of 100$ in a row and where he will pay you X2 when you win on one EC and where you'll lose your unit if you lose. You have a 50% edge so.

    You bet 100x 1$ you win 50$ so your bk will be 150$

    Kelly Criterion recomands to bet 25% of your bankroll each bet, this way your bk will be 36100$
    If you decided to bet a fraction of Kelly for example 10% instead 25% your bk will be 4700$
    If you decided to bet 40% of you bk, your bk will be 4700$ as well (overbet)
    If you decided to be 51% of your bk, your bk will be now 31$
     
  19. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    @Sharptracker,


    Well explained .Another approach to games or according to William Shakespeare " As you like it".


    Thx.


    ND
     
  20. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    @Sharptracker ,


    *In reference to your question about the baccarat tie bet I was taken aback by the arrogant reply given to you .

    Besides roulette I am also a Baccarat and Pai Gow Poker player Never got too chummy with some of those :Know it All "

    Baccarat players .


    ND
     

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