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Baccarat My way of betting?

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Richie, Dec 24, 2023.

  1. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    @Jake0628 and @Richie

    I assume you guys are talking about a flat bet fixed bet selection? So just to be clear. Never raising your bet and a rule based selection? If so, it would be a simple task to describe the bet selection and have someone run the method against live shoes.

    @cps10 As fathead mentioned, it's more a matter of numbers of wagers rather than numbers of shoes. But one would think that even against some few thousands of wagers, a standard deviation and risk of ruin could be calculated to give a pretty good idea of the efficacy of the method.

    Not that complicated for someone better at math than me.
     
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  2. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    @Jimske you are good at math! Don’t cut yourself down on that!
     
  3. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    I always say a cat gotta test buckin up at least 1000 shoe. Personally, I tested al my winning style for 5000+ tested shoe, hey hey.
     
  4. Jake0628

    Jake0628 Member

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    @Jimske I haven't gotten far enough to work on bet selection to be honest. What I did was play when there were instances of 6 columns compared to a single and see if the 6/1 ratio would go 6/2 or 7/1. The initial thought was that it should revert to a mean. Hope that makes sense. Unfortunately I don't have the programming skills to quickly run this.
     
  5. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Not sure what u mean 6 column to single but if you are looking to see if a particular pattern has an advantage to have a net win that's going to be tough (read nearly non-existent). There are a few like P5 bet B and a few others that win often enough to win with a good staking plan but they happen so few times per shoe it becomes hardly worth the effort. Particularly if free hands and/or time is a problem. If one can sit forever and monitor shoe after shoe than they may be worth the effort.

    If you want a good odds bet than a good one might be a 4 column. Johno posted an interesting idea some time ago. I can't find the thread maybe someone will reference it. Basically it deals with the fact that there are only 16 different patterns of 4 that can ocurr so there is a 16:1 chance that any one will repeat.

    So if PBPB comes up the chances of it coming up again are 16:1. There are certain 4 patterns that seem better than others to bet. Take the PBPB I just mentioned. How many times do you see an 8 chop? How about PPPP? How many times do you see 8 P IAR? See what I'm getting at? How and when one begins to attack and exploit these patterns is the 6 million dollar question. There's lots of ways to do it. Make 4 bets against; wait for one or two matches then make two bets against? See what I'm getting at? The odds ARE in your favor. You got to play around with it and see what might suit you.

    I have been meaning to post a bet selection concept that an old associate of mine copyrighted. He called it UB or Ultimate Baccarat. There have been iterations of it over the years. I'll try to do it soon. It may be helpful to some.

    Cheers
     
  6. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    I have seen Ultimate Baccarat or maybe it’s a version of it. Looking forward to seeing what you have.
     
  7. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    the author was a friend. We played MANY shoes together in LV and CT.
     
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  8. Jake0628

    Jake0628 Member

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    Something like:

    PBPBPBPB
    PBPB BPB
    PB B

    It would be 6 columns and a single. With the thought that it evens out....
     
  9. Richie

    Richie Active Member

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    Hi @Jimske
    Roulette is my game, but have been playing bacc on the side when time to kill whilst watching the wheel, so I am no expert on bacc.
    If you look at my first post and disregard any bet P position and readjusting we have (losing all P bets) and adding a ppp bet b and changing ppppp bet b instead of p we have:

    PP bet B
    PPP bet B
    PPPPP bet B
    PBPBP bet B

    All banker bets.

    Can go -ev 80u plus, but seems to come back to B/E and +ev eventually. Takes multiple shoes.

    As I said I play this on this side whilst watching the wheel, your results and thoughts are more than welcome :)
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2024
  10. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    Maybe the Chingy progression can work with that.
     
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  11. Richie

    Richie Active Member

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    I'll look into that, thanks. PS What do ya think about the Lanky Divisor? (shame he's passed, such a nice fella reading his old posts)
     
  12. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    I like it a lot Richie. It can get a little time consuming on the fly in my opinion but it’s solid. Lanky was one of the greatest guys in gambling. My really good buddy coolpaddy (Patrick) and I worked with Lanky tirelessly with roulette systems trying to find “The Bet”. Pat and I still keep in contact bouncing ideas of each other. One day we will find that “holy grail” I hope.
     
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  13. Richie

    Richie Active Member

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    @cps10 Didn't realise you knew him, was a really nice guy. I'm really shocked and surprised, in a good way mate. We (Lanky and I) talked years ago and he got rid of my bullshit, glad you knew him. Miss the way he used to talk.
    Glad you and coolpaddy worked with him, he knew his stuff.
    We are all trying to find the "bet", we all know that bet selection is only 25% (max) of the equation, if I find anything worth knowing I'll give ya a shout. All the best bud, Richie
     
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2024
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  14. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    Would be happy to work with you anytime Richie
     

  15. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I'm sorry i'm not following this. I just see three rows. I don't know what the spaces between each row are for.
     
  16. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    My opinion is this. There may be a miniscule net advantage betting certain patterns. And of course banker has a slight advantage over player. But those occasions occur so rarely that it's impractical to be any kind of rreal use flat betting.

    Fortunately we don't need such to profit.
     
  17. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    Waiting on these opportunities to arise is mind numbing as well.
     
  18. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    A smarter way to do it is to be creative and give yourself more betting opportunities. Then you will have a lot more choices in a shoe and can decide whether you want to bet or not instead of the above situation where you might feel compelled to bet whenever one of these patterns shows up.

    If you say ''I am betting B after PP come hell or high water'' there are times you are going to take a beating and playing that way is like a kind of slow torture when it goes wrong.
     
  19. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    One of the reasons I like the ''Baccarat Buster 3'' software is because in the analysis section, it gives you a breakdown as to what the best bets were in that particular shoe and they are nearly always different.

    I just run one off and here are the results. In this shoe, it turns out that the Player produced all the best opportunities. (fancy that ;))

    Screenshot 2024-01-05 204406.png
     
  20. Jake0628

    Jake0628 Member

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    Sorry - supposed to be 6 columns not 3 rows. so the first is column of 3 players (PPP) then 3 Bankers etc
     

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