Sports Betting NBA - 2019 Playoffs - 4/13 to 4/19

The projections posted here are based on player and team statistics, injuries, and past performance matchups data, accrued over the 2018-19 NBA season; and, although projected scores are indicated, the model has never proven a reliable indicator of over/under totals. Whatever value the model has is in the projected margin of victory (MOV); and it’s on this MOV that the projected ATS pick is made, using the most current consensus lines available from the Vegas Insider website.


It needs to be noted, however, that although the projected MOV doesn’t change, the model’s ATS Final Pick frequently does, as, obviously, such a pick is based on lines that change themselves – sometimes wildly; and it’s against the Vegas Insider closing lines that the model is graded.


Much like the weekly NBA projections posted earlier, the playoff projections will be posted daily (in a weekly thread) as quickly as I can gather all the necessary data; so, depending on the editing features available, to view the most current projections you may need to scroll to the bottom of the thread. This first week, as I have the data needed, I’m posting the night before.


Finally, I’m a one-man band, and old as dirt, so apologies in advance if I’m a little late sometimes. Also, although I never fade my own projections, I seldom bet every game. Statistics can be a good guide, but they don’t trump reality; and, if you watch the NBA like a fanatic (like me), you know that players and teams go hot and cold, often out of nowhere, and numbers alone can be a big lie.


Good luck to all.

 

Saturday’s loss dropped the model’s MOV projection on the 76ers from 9.9 to 7.9 – a full 2 points; and that’s with Embid at 80%! Today’s line, however, has steadily increased from -7.5 to -8.5. Nevertheless, both NumberFire and Team Rankings are projecting a Nets’ cover at +8.5. If Ebid is OUT this is an easy call, and the 76ers are supposed to make an announcement soon. But the line movement is puzzling.

 

I’ve got the Pistons’ Blake Griffin OUT for this one, and he makes a big difference in the MOV for the Bucks. At even 50% that MOV drops to 14.8, but with him OUT – which is how it looks right now – another big blowout is likely.