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Sports Betting North Carolina @ Georgia Tech

Discussion in 'Sports Betting Forum | Sportsbook Forum' started by MUdcreek, Mar 3, 2015.

  1. MUdcreek

    MUdcreek New Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2015
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    Hi y'all. I'm new to the community and this will be my first post in the Sportsbook Forum. I guess the best way to introduce myself is to make a prediction about one of the NCAA games this evening. Here is a glimpse into how I handicap a basketball game. I usually don't write so much commentary. I kinda use more of a make shift shorthand when writing down this info. This is a bit more detailed. I hope y'all enjoy it.

    NC @ GT @ 7pm EST Open NC -6

    GT 12-17, 3-14 ACC
    2-4 ATS last 6 games
    1-5 SU last 6 games
    4-1 ATS last 5 home games

    NC 20-9, 10-6 ACC
    4-2 ATS last 6 games
    14-6 SU last 20 games
    4-2 ATS last 6 road games


    The primary line shift shows an increase in GT action at some of the Vegas books dropping the spread to NC -5 1/2. However, Sportsbook.ag shifted the other way to NC -6 1/2.
    I'm looking for the smart money this evening to make the last line shift within 30 minutes of game time @ 7pm shifting the line back to the opening line of NC -6 at the Vegas books and even higher online.

    The projected score for the is game NC 76 GT 65

    NC is ranked #19 in the nation @ 20-9, 10-6 ACC, ESPN ranks them @18, I was having trouble gaining confidence in the Tarheels to beat the spread on the road this week, considering GT's ATS performance in their last 5 home games. It looks like they may have home steam tonight and have a chance to beat the line. However, when looking at GT's poor record ATS for the last 6 games overall it deflates the at home ATS statistic.

    Also, NC has a distinct advantage in scoring percentages, FG 47%, FT 69%, 3P 33.2% over GT's FG 41%, FT 65%, 3P 27.6%. It is these numbers that show where the steam in the game truly lies. When considering NC's performance last weekend against Miami, (NC 73-MIA 64), winning ATS on the road, NC showed road steam as conference play comes to a close. As a top 25 ranked team they are playing for their berth in the conference tourney and look like a lock for a #4 seed. Considering their regular season record, by improving 1 win, will also give them a better spot in the NCAA tourney. They want as high a seed as they can gain.

    GT desperately needs a conference victory, considering their dismal performance of 3-14. It appears they have little or no chance against the Heels at 10-6 in the ACC.

    I see enough indicators to show real value in betting NC to beat the spread considering the aforementioned factors. The reason for this is in the comparison of each teams full schedule of opponents where one can see GT's easier non-conference opponents which is where the majority of their 12 victories are. Their best games this year have been against Clemson 52 - GT63, Miami 50-GT 70 away, and Wake Forest 59 - GT 73.


    My pick NC -5 1/2
     
    JWK24 likes this.

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