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Sports Betting Notre Dame @ Louisville

Discussion in 'Sports Betting Forum | Sportsbook Forum' started by MUdcreek, Mar 4, 2015.

  1. MUdcreek

    MUdcreek New Member Lineage to Founders

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    Point Spread Louisville -4

    There are four games with AP Top 25 teams tonight and it's no surprise that two of them are teams from the ACC. But this one has AP 12th ranked Notre Dame squaring off against AP 16th ranked Louisville. With five teams in the Top 25, the ACC has the most exciting match ups this week in conference play. Notre Dame (12-4) and U of L (11-5) are ranked 3rd and 4th respectively in the ACC at this time. This is a critical game for both teams. Louisville can tie Notre Dame for 3rd place in the ACC with a win but a loss ties them for 4th with North Carolina (11-6). They are in a must win situation tonight. Hey. No pressure, right? Wrong. Coach Pitino and the red birds are facing the #2 AP ranked, #1 ACC ranked Virginia Cavaliers this Saturday. A loss tonight puts their neck in the noose when tipping off against one of the toughest teams in the NCAA. But, one game at a time, right?

    On the other side of the court, Mike Brey has his team are ready for a fight. Notre Dame has had a nice rest after a disappointing defeat Feb. 24th at home, courtesy of the Syracuse Orange (65-60). The Irish are fighting mad at being beaten out of their chance to tie the mighty Blue Devils (13-3) for 2nd place in the conference. I’m sure they intend to show up in Derby City tonight and live up to their name. They need a victory tonight to establish their position as the 3rd place ACC team with the possibility to tie Duke for 2nd. Notre Dame will be playing 10th ranked Clemson (8-9) this weekend. I love a team out for revenge.

    With all of these ingredients, in my opinion, this is the most difficult game to pick tonight but it is also the most exciting.

    First of all, I think the point spread reflects home court advantage more than anything. The scoring percentages look like this:

    Notre Dame
    PPG FG% FT% 3P% OFR Def. PT Def. R
    79 .508 .724 .394 8.76 65.4 24.9

    Louisville
    PPG FG% FT% 3P% OFR Def. PT Def. R
    70 .431 .661 .309 13.07 58.8 25.7

    The offensive percentages show an advantage for ND, while the defensive numbers show an advantage for U of L.

    I think the deciding factors for this game will not be in the numbers as much as in the players themselves. The winning team will be the one that works the hardest and plays with the most heart and effort. On that point, I have to give the edge to Louisville. After losing guard Chris Jones, 13.7 Pts/Game, 4 Rebounds/Game, 3.6 Assists/Game, it looked like Louisville would not recover, losing to Syracuse. But they rallied, winning three straight, one with Jones and two without. The Louisville bench stepped up and displayed brilliant outside shooting and filled the gap left by Jones. I think the ESPN stats that I showed here don’t reflect how well these players can shoot from outside. That, coupled with their defensive advantage and home court advantage, in my opinion, will be enough to turn the game in the Cards favor providing Rick Pitino continues to display his formidable coaching skills.

    I think this is a fight the Irish will lose.

    My pick Louisville -4
     
  2. MUdcreek

    MUdcreek New Member Lineage to Founders

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    I hope y'all overlook my comment about Louisville's brilliant outside shooting. That's just not true. I was up to my ears in the statistics from several of the games I'm betting tonight and just got confused I guess. Now I'm trying to figure out which team I mixed up U of L with, lol.

    What I meant to say was their brilliant ability to score and press with their defense the way they did against FSU.
     
  3. MUdcreek

    MUdcreek New Member Lineage to Founders

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    I stepped on my johnson on this one. Louisville, after rallying in the early play of the second half and coming back from an 11 point deficit, could not close the deal.
     

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