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Baccarat Old ''Fathead'' Thread! PPPP bet B

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by baccarou, Dec 22, 2022.

  1. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    Was reading this old thread last night where you wait for PPPP and then bet B.
    The general consensus was that a 1 2 4 marty would get the job done and so I will do a bit of testing over Christmas with it.

    First 20 shoes.

    1) W +1
    2) LLW/W/LLL/LW -4
    3) LW/LW/W/LW +4
    4) W/W/LW +3
    5) NO BET
    6) W/W +2
    7) W/W +2
    8) W +1
    9) LLW/W/LLW +3
    10) LLW/LLW/LW +3
    11) LW/ W LLW/ +3
    12) LW/LW/W +3
    13) W +1
    14) LW/LW +2
    15) NO BET
    16) W +1
    17) W/W/LLW +3
    18) W +1
    19) LW +1
    20) W/LW/W +3

    +33

    Purely as a hit and run using some decent sized units and having a fair bit of patience to boot, what's not to like about it.
     
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  2. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    40 W 33 L even good for flat betting: (40 * 0.95) - 33 = 5
     
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  3. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    I have plenty of shoes and so we can get a good idea. I was encouraged by some of the old timers who reported good success using it at the B+M Casinos.
     
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  4. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    Looking forward to those reports from you! Happy Holidays!
     
  5. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    21) LW/LLL/W -5
    22) LLW/W/W/W/W +5
    23) LW +1
    24) LW/W +2
    25) LW/W +2
    26) W/W +2
    27) LLW/LLL -6
    28) W/LW/LLW +3
    29) W +1
    30) W/W/W +3
    31) W +1
    32) NO BET
    33) LLW/W/LLW/LW +4
    34) W/LLW +2
    35) LW/LW +2
    36) W +1
    37) LLW +1
    38) LLW/W +2
    39) W/W +2
    40) W/W/LLW/W +4

    +27 (RUNNING TOTAL = +60)

    Looking at the first 40 shoes, the interesting thing for me is how many times LL turns into LLW.
    LL has went to LLW 16 times and LLL only 3 times. So that's possibly why the results are good so far because there is a strong deviation for the LLW instead of the LLL. If it balances out more, then it will produce more 7 unit losses along the way. I think waiting for 6 P would be a stretch unless you are online and can see plenty of tables in action.

    Flat betting so far and it's 81 W vs 62 L.
     
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  6. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    Keep up the great work! Interested to see how 1,000 shoes looks. I’ll take a look on my end as well when I get some time.

    If LL turns into LLW 16-3 then maybe a Grand Marty would be even more profitable.

    And yes, I know better about Marty, but there’s a safer way to play this I’m sure if you’re getting these kinds of results and still win a lot.
     
  7. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    41) W/W/LW/LLL -4
    42) W/W +2
    43) W +1
    44) LW/LLW/W/W/W +5
    45) W/W +2
    46) W/LW +2
    47) LLL/LLW/W -5
    48) LLW/W/W +3
    49) LW +1
    50) W +1
    51) LW +1
    52) LLW +1
    53) W/LW/LW +3
    54) LLL/LLL/W -13
    55) NO BET
    56) LLL/LW -6
    57) LLL/W/W -5
    58) W +1
    59) NO BET
    60) W/LLW +2

    -8 (RUNNING TOTAL = +52)

    The double loss at 54 would hurt and then to rub it in, you have NO BET in shoe 55 and another couple of losing shoes in 56 and 57. So it's not for the faint hearted IMO.
     
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  8. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    61) LLW/LW/W +3
    62) LLL -7
    63) NO BET
    64) NO BET
    65) LW/W/LLL/W -4
    66) W/W/LLL -5
    67) LW/LW +2
    68) LW/LW +2
    69) W/LLW +2
    70) LLW/LW/LLL/LW -4
    71) LLW +1
    72) LW/LLW/LLW +3
    73) LW/LW/LW +3
    74) W +1
    75) W/LW/LLW/LW +4
    76) LW/W/LW +3
    77) W/W +2
    78) W +1
    79) NO BET
    80) LW/LLW/W +3

    +10 (RUNNING TOTAL = +62)

    Things got a bit nasty in those last 40 shoes and yet still no real damage done.
     
    Last edited: Dec 22, 2022
  9. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    That’s good to see. At least it’s staying afloat.
     
  10. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    81) LW/W +2
    82) LW +1
    83) W/W +2
    84) W/W +2
    85) W/W/LW/LW +4
    86) NO BET
    87) LW/W +2
    88) LLW/LW/LLW +3
    89) LLW/LW +2
    90) W/LLW/W +3
    91) LLW/LW +2
    92) W/W/W/LW/LLL -3
    93) W/W +2
    94) LW +1
    95) W/W/W +3
    96) W +1
    97) W/LW/W +3
    98) W/W +2
    99) W +1
    100) LW +1

    +34 (RUNNING COUNT = +96)

    That's my lot for today! At least it's easy to test.
     
  11. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    I looked at 4 shoes just now. 5-1. Also saw BBBBP worked a lot as well. I know that as you get into longer streaks you can find them happening a lot less than shorter streaks which is obvious. For instance:

    1IAR: 50%
    2IAR: 25%
    3IAR: 12.5%
    4IAR: 6.25%
    5IAR: 3.125%

    And so on. Because 4 in a row happens a few times a shoe it makes sense to utilize that for this exercise. I will post some results later as well.
     
  12. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    The LLW = 34 and the LLL = 14.
    Flat betting and it's 194 W vs 167 L.

    Too early to tell anything really and like Cps10 says, it will probably take a 1000 shoes to get a better idea.
    Anyway, I am looking forward to more testing and see what happens. Thanks.
     
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  13. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    Thanks, look forward to it!
     
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  14. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    Just finished analyzing 50 of my own shoes.

    I looked at playing BBBB then P and the subject of the original post.

    My results are as follows:

    BBBB then bet P:

    59 W and 56 L for a net win of 3 if flat betting.

    If using a Martingale and you start over with each shoe: +5

    If using a Martingale continuously picking up where you left off from the last shoe: -8

    PPPP then bet B:

    59 W and 60 L for a net loss of 3.95 if flat betting, accounting for commissions.

    If using a Martingale and you start over with each shoe: +5 NOT ACCOUNTING for commissions. At the very least you are looking at 59 * 0.05 = 2.95 bringing your win to +2.05. Looking back over the data, there was 94 units worth of wins which makes it worse at 94 * 0.05 = 4.70, making the total +0.30.

    If using a Martingale continuously picking up where you left off from the last shoe: +1 but with the 4.70 it leaves you a loss of 3.70.

    I will take a look at 50 more when I get a chance.
     
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  15. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    Rather than write in all the W's and L's, I will just type out the totals for each shoe from 101 to 200.
    This is for betting B after seeing PPPP and using a 124 marty to try and catch a win in 3 attempts.

    101) +2
    102) -12
    103) +3
    104) +4
    105) +2
    106) +1
    107) +3
    108) +2
    109) +2
    110) +4
    111) -4
    112) +2
    113) +2
    114) -11
    115) +3
    116) +3
    117) +3
    118) +1
    119) +2
    120) +3
    121) +1
    122) +3
    123) -7
    124) +1
    125) +4
    126) NO BET
    127) +1
    128) +1
    129) -5
    130) +1
    131) -6
    132) +2
    133) +1
    134) +2
    135) -7
    136) +1
    137) +2
    138) +3
    139) +1
    140) -6
    141) NO BET
    142) -7
    143) +2
    144) +1
    145) +3
    146) -5
    147) +1
    148) NO BET
    149) +1
    150) +3
    151) +2
    152) +3
    153) +2
    154) +1
    155) +4
    156) +2
    157) +2
    158) NO BET
    159) +2
    160) -4
    161) NO BET
    162) -4
    163) +5
    164) NO BET
    165) -5
    166) +2
    167) +3
    168) +3
    169) +3
    170) +2
    171) +1
    172) -3
    173) -7
    174) -4
    175) +1
    176) -5
    177) +2
    178) -14
    179) +1
    180) +1
    181) -5
    182) -4
    183) NO BET
    184) +1
    185) +2
    186) +3
    187) +3
    188) -6
    189) -5
    190) +1
    191) +1
    192) -5
    193) +4
    194) -4
    195) +2
    196) NO BET
    197) +3
    198) NO BET
    199) +3
    200) +1

    These 100 shoes are a lot worse than the first 100!

    -2 (RUNNING COUNT = +94)

    Flat betting over the 200 shoes and it's 381 W vs 363 L. (The tax on that would be 19 units leaving you 1 unit down)

    What about the LLW vs the LLL? 67 LLW vs 40 LLL.

    Playing @100 units and you are going to get hit from time to time for 5k+ as evidenced between shoes 160 and 194.
    That's a lot of time for no rewards and no guarantees that it's getting better anytime soon. Also playing for the B after PPPP means you are getting hit for the tax on every winning bet. As an aside, I know from experience that you can get prolonged dominant P shoes.

    That's todays out of the way, I will do another 100 tomorrow.
     
    Last edited: Dec 23, 2022
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  16. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Ya gotta use the grand-marty 1-3-7 to overcome the tax and eeke out the profits, hey hey.
     
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  17. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    Agree with that
     
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  18. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    Thanks Soxfan,

    I ran through the 200 shoes again comparing the 124 marty with the 137 grand marty. I will write out the comparisons in blocks of 20 shoes to give everyone a good idea.

    1st 20. M = 33 GM = 56
    2nd 20. M = 27 GM = 45
    3rd 20. M = -8 GM = -14
    4th 20. M = 10 GM = 27
    5th 20. M = 34 GM = 52

    That's +96 for the 124 Marty and +166 for the 137 Grand Marty and so a significant advantage.
    It's worth noting though that there was a lot of LLW compared to LLL (34 vs 14) and so all those 3 unit wins opposed to an 11 unit loss certainly helped in these 100 shoes.

    6th 20. M = 15 GM = 28
    7th 20. M = -7 GM = -5
    8th 20. M = 13 GM = 15
    9th 20. M = -18 GM = -34
    10th 20. M = -5 GM = -3

    That's -2 for the 124 Marty and +1 for the 137 Grand Marty. The 3 units might not sound a lot but it all counts as Soxfan points out regarding the tax.
     
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  19. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    Considering a three-step martingale and infinite series of such attacks, the final Banker winning probability must be 88.45% or higher to get a long term edge after commission.

    This is a decent baccarat attack but it's very very slight better than progressively betting any three Banker spots taken randomly.
    'Very very slight better' just for the general less propensity to get long streaks at baccarat (already mentioned by cps)

    Unfortunately and as written many times, such attack is a long term loser. Not a big loser, though.

    as.
     
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  20. 5pinn

    5pinn Member

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    you beat her today..
    yesterday ?
     

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