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Baccarat Oscar's grind + baccarat

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by BeJustRich, Apr 23, 2021.

  1. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Wow, gotta say I'm shocked that a cat on here come to logical conclusion that wager on players is a LOUSY proposition, hey hey.
     
    Jae likes this.
  2. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    With the Banker bet a player is betting FOR the house .
     
  3. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

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    Did you manually test those shoes or use the excel setup that your guy programmed for you. If you’re still testing with that program, it’s off. He has most of the proper equations in there correctly, but from the sample you emailed me and the results you posted a few days ago, the program doesn’t know how to go down in units to end a series at +1

    from what I can tell it resets after it’s in the green, but at a higher level. Example: If your bets start getting higher, say you are -44 and betting 39 and win.
    You would now be down 5 and betting 6. I think your program is set up to make the very next bet 40 instead of going down for a win of just 1 unit.

    That throws everything off and can show you results with much higher draw downs than needs to be. It also might show your winnings higher than they actually are as well. Although 1,900 units won for banker in 200 shoes sounds accurate as I’ve usually came up with an average of 8-10 units a shoe if they were played every hand.

    feel free to send me the results if you want and I’ll let you know if the new batch is accurate, as far as excel goes, I totally suck but I have a feeling that there are a lot of people on this forum that know what they are doing.

    @fathead knows his shit and has sone some testing for me in the past, he might be willing to help you out.
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2021
  4. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

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    Technically, both bets, banker and player are for the house. But the player bet more so.
     
    Jimske likes this.
  5. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

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    it’s really hard to imagine player being down over 500,000 units in 200 shoes. I know that I’ve never seen anything even remotely close. But the thought of it is intriguing. If I knew it would even go -100,000 in 1,000 shoes, I would change my entire business structure and play with an idea I’ve floated for years. A reverse Oscar’s grind.
    In your results, a bankroll of as little as $500 could have made you over $500,000 in what it would take someone to play in 10-20 days.

    so I would set a goal of -100,000 and risk 10,000 units trying to hit that.

    the most beautiful part of a reverse grind is that the 500,000 unit run only cost you $1.00. Turning $1.00 into $500,000. That would just be such an amazing feat.

    my experiments with reverse OG have been fun, but I think the actual process of playing it live would be so excruciatingly boring that I would have trouble staying focused.
    I’ve tried it live a handful of times in the past, and when I would usually play it was I’d banker was just running super strong and leaving me with nothing to do. If I saw that bank was up +40, meaning that a person playing player using OG was -40, I’d just bet whatever the grind would call for player to bet and put it on bank. Most of the times I played it, player recovered and I’d be out 41+ units, but I did catch a good one once. I think I ran it up a little over 600 and stopped. I kept tracking and player had a drawdown of -900 before recovering. So I could have went longer but I was happy with my profits.

    with the proper money management and setting up a few different betting tiers, I believe someone could make good money doing this, my only issue is the wait. If your goal was just seeing player go negative -100. It might not happen that day. So ultimately you’ll leave a loser for the day. Doesn’t mean you won’t make it back, but I just like leaving the casino in the green every session.
     
  6. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

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    Jae, not really clear on this reverse OG thingy. Do you mean you bet Player when you supposed to bet Banker?
     
  7. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Oscar grinds like the star system, the style ain't for the faint of heart or the light of wallet, hey hey.
     

  8. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    OG ain't not nuttin' like da stah sistem, hey hey.

    Lots of progressions go deep.
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2021
  9. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Correcto.
     
  10. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

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    I’m not sure if the testing is accurate, but I have actually long agreed that a 5,000 unit bankroll would be pretty ideal. My team and I have discussed this for months reaching the conclusion that we’ll cross that bridge and make a change once we bust 2,000

    there’s pros and cons to a 5,000 unit bankroll, obviously it’s a lot for most players. You’d need $25,000 to play $5.00 units. And when playing $1.00 units, it’s a slow road. You’d have to clear $100 a day doe nearly two months before you could go up a $1.00 on hour unit size. But ultimately, that would be one of the safest ways to play if you’re not focused on the short-term.

    another con is that I don’t think 5,000 is invincible; but I do believe you’d make way more than you’d ever lose if properly managed.
     
  11. BeJustRich

    BeJustRich Active Member

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    Jae,

    What I did sent you that was just an example as I had just a little information about how you are playing. As I mentioned, rules as you said, once bankroll reduces means bet size reduces accordingly.
    A short example below that you can see that all are correct also will send a file to Jae email.
    B/P BET Outcome Balance (current)
    B 48 45.6 -283
    B 49 46.55 -234
    P -50 -50 -284
    B 50 47.5 -234
    P -51 -51 -285
    B 51 48.45 -234
    P -52 -52 -286
    B 52 49.4 -234
    B 53 50.35 -181
    B 54 51.3 -127
    B 55 52.25 -72
    B 56 53.2 -16
    B 17 16.15 1 1
    B 1 0.95 1 1
    P -1 -1 -1
    B 1 0.95 0 0
    B 1 0.95 1 1
    P -1 -1 -1
    B 1 0.95 0 0
    P -1 -1 -1
    B 1 0.95 0 0
    B 1 0.95 1 1
    B 1 0.95 1 1
    B 1 0.95 1 1
    B 1 0.95 1 1
    P -1 -1 -1
    B 1 0.95 0 0
    P -1 -1 -1
    B 1 0.95 0 0
    B 1 0.95 1 1
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2021
  12. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

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    No. You have to pretend like you’re betting on player to win 1+ in a series, but you actually place the bets on banker. And instead of going up 1 unit on banker wins, you go up 1 unit on losses if the player isn’t at a +1

    it would look like this

    p technically a +1 which actually makes you -1 because you are betting on bank.
    P
    P

    okay so this represents 3 players in a row. You are flat betting on banker, so you’re down 3 units. We aren’t chasing these losses either.

    b now you’re technically up 1, but you’re pretending like you’re betting on player so you mark it -1

    alright let’s use a real shoe as an example and I’ll write down the OG count

    B -1 betting 1
    B -2 betting 1
    B -3 betting 1
    P -2 betting 2
    P -1 betting 2
    P +1 betting 1
    B -1 betting 1
    B -2 betting 1
    P -1 betting 2 (slash=betting)
    B -3/2
    B -5/2
    B -7/2
    B -9/2
    P -7/3
    B -10/3
    P -7/4
    B -11/4
    B -15/4
    B -19/4
    P -15/5
    B -20/5
    P -15/6
    B -21/6
    B -27/6
    B -33/6
    P -27/7
    B -34/7
    P -27/8
    B -35/8
    B -43/8
    P -35/9
    B -44/9

    this is what a drawdown would look like if you were actually playing OG betting on player, but since the bets are placed on bank instead, that -44 is actually a +44

    on the third player you see a plus sign. That means you lost 1 unit there. After that, 1 unit turns into +44 units.

    another example would be from the play you did today with $1,000. If you went -150 or more units, then it means you would have actually made 150 units doing a reverse grind but betting it on player.

    now this might sound appealing, because if you experience a big drawdown, it sure would have been nice being on the other side doing a reverse grind. And it’s honestly pretty conservative. You set yourself a goal, let’s say it’s 100 units. All you have to do is the reverse grind until it goes -100 units. Since the other side is only really going to profit 8-10 units on average per shoe, you can afford to do this for about 10 shoes with a five hundred dollar bankroll betting $5 units. As long as the other side has a drawdown of -100 in those 10 shoes, you should be in the green. Obviously, the earlier it happens, the more profit you’ll make. And if it happens. Ear the end of the 10th shoe, then you are looking at about breaking even. Of course the moment someone decides to play this method, it’s going to seem like the other side is doing very well and you’re going to start doubting it’ll ever go -100. Maybe Murphy’s law or something. Heh. This method requires patience. Great for comp building I’d imagine. I’d also think you’d need to consider a second tier of bets if you don’t succeed in 10 shoes. At which point you’d need to either double your unit size or gradually increase it. This would get ugly if you don’t see a drawdown that equals your goal of -100 or what have you. And by all means, while everyone is saying that OG gets deep, it can do the exact opposite and sometimes you can go days without seeing a big drawdown.
     
  13. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

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    Rene Zellweger to Tom Cruise in Jerry Maguire - You had me at hello.

    Me to you - You lost me at hello!!

    Thanks Jae for your post. Will share with my designated member who had the honour of trying and losing.
     
  14. BeJustRich

    BeJustRich Active Member

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    Well Player can streak very high sometimes! Then you need huge bankroll for that! Around 50.000 units
     

  15. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

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    LOL.

    Also, by no means at I trying to promote the reverse grind idea. I honestly have never really dig deep into it to even have a good idea of a solid bankroll amount or expectations, etc. out of curiosity, is she keeping track of the last few sessions she played for you if so, I’d like to see them, I can at least let you know if there are any mistakes. That’s usually the number one culprit with OG.
    Cheers!
     
  16. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

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    Well, it would be the opposite though. I’m trying to say that you pretend like you’re betting player in a normal Oscar Grind, but actually place the bets on banker.

    so if player did go -500,000 like in your results, that’s means you are actually up 500,000 units and all it technically took you was one unit to get there. So you see what I’m saying?
     
  17. BeJustRich

    BeJustRich Active Member

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    In the right moment yes! But it can go opposite also, how you will react then? you will bet just 1 unit? I need to understand how big your expenses will be if player will streak when you are expecting to get it less.
     
  18. BeJustRich

    BeJustRich Active Member

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    One little thing do not forget 5%!
     
  19. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

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    If it goes the opposite, you lose 1 unit. I’d gladly pay 5% on a 500,000 unit win.
     
    soxfan likes this.
  20. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    The five percents tax on winnings wager is just the cost of doing business and a bargain to be able to win more bet than ya lose, hey hey.
     

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