Poker OUTS AND POKER MATH

I am not an expert in math, But at a table that has 10 players this situation occurs

After the turn card is dealt...you have an open ended straight draw and a flush draw(hold-em)

you have 8 outs for the straight, and 7 outs for the flush(2 of the flush cards are a duplicate for the open ender so you cant count it twice), Thats 15 outs..

Really? People are supposed to assume that the other 18 cards dealt to the other 9 people had zero of your outs? All your outs are in the deck? Not in the burn cards?

And from this you make a mathematical decision whether to call after the turn card is dealt. A mathematical decision that makes the assumption that you have 15 outs.

Should there be some sort of mathematical formula to use to estimate the real amount of outs to realistically expect based on 18 dealt cards to other players and 3 burn cards.

you will never get an exact calculation of real expected outs, but in this case the outs are going to be less than 15.....at least one should expect that to be mathematically true,

 

It tells you that "at the most" you have a 30% (15 x 2) chance of making your hand. Certainly some outs are also gone by the wayside, but the formula provides you the maximum outs and % available.

I always tell my clients that the turn is where you get off the train, your chances go down by half to make a hand on the river, and yes, even less chance since some unaccounted outs are also not available.

 

well if you have 15 outs at a full table...then there are 25 cards left for the river when you count the burn cards, community cards showing, and the 20 cards for the 10 players.
So 15 outs ......out of 25 cards would seem the percent of hitting in this case would be 60 percent (15/25)

A bogus percent because the real outs can be as low as zero and as high as 60 percent...depending on what specifically has been dealt

which is why I ask, if there is some reasonable math formula that people use to calculate the real probability of outs.