Baccarat Patterns and the Brain

This Bacc Forum becoming a soap opera. This will be long. Sorry.

Recently I was discussing money management (MM) and bet selection (BS) talking about finding a fixed mechanical no guess method that produces a profit. My opinion is that it is possible with enough bankroll and the correct progression (apparently JAE adheres to that). Some people call a fixed betting style MM. I don't. To me MM is really just a seat of the pants adjustment. A feel or guess.

Finding a BS that will win flat bet is, IMO, either impossible or so impractical due to variance, bankroll requirements and time constraints that few if any would undertake such. There's talk of it here from various quarters. Soxfan of course insists. Then there's this ppppB thing that some have looked at. As far as what I've read it doesn't exist. Feel free to enlighten me since I don't read everything.

So then we are stuck with the hocus pocus of guessing or pattern recognition that divide the group into believers or non-believers. There's a popular game, "Wordle" that's been in the news and on the radio I listened to a discussion about Wordle and even professional Scrabble players. (they have those?) A psychologist was saying that the pro Scrabble people have developed some kind of knack and memory that makes them better than the average bear! So I started thinking patterns.

Why do some of us win thru guessing or MM while using a fixed BS as a guideline only to be adjusted on the fly by a whim or a feeling? These adjustments go to the bet amount and the BS. You might have a fixed BS like JK's columns with a modified Labby that changes according to ones "gut." Or you might decide that your BS isn't working so just try the opposite - bet for the loss.

I am not a professional. I just play to win small amounts of units and I do well. There are full time professionals. I won't say more about that due to privacy concerns. You'll just have to take my word for it - or not. My discussions with some of these really fall into the pattern, guessing, MM and BS areas. It really seems that experience is the main component of success. AFTER a fixed BS and betting guideline. Yes, there are better ways to select bets than others.

It's hard to explain but if you play the same consistent methodology over and over and over and over there are times when you just say to yourself, "here it comes again and if this continues I'm gone." Or knowing your own game you make adjustments after certain occurrences. Here's one example that I use. I often win 4 or 5 IAR. Yeah, 6,7,8 sometimes but not too often. After winning 5 or 6 IAR and hopefully getting a few more units from that run I am pretty much ready to stop the shoe. Because from my experience shoe patterns change often and seldom maintain more than x amount of hands. Even Glen used to always spout that the average shoe changes 4 times. Okay. You'll get no argument form me on that. So in such a situation I take my win as soon as I think it's over. Now that doesn't mean if I stay I wouldn't win the next 20 IAR! So I am actually relying on experience AND, wait for it, statistical analysis. Even though I cannot predict the future I can make a pretty good guess that in that situation it doesn't pan out to stay. And yes I often have sat and watched. Anecdotally I have proven to myself that it was the smart move.

The final question is about the brain and patterns. Are certain distribution of random events forming "normal deviates" recognized by the brain with small amounts of predictable outcomes. The phrase "normal deviates" come from a book I haven't read. I think it came out of MIT and was titled, "One Million Random Numbers and their Normal Deviates." ??

That was a long way around, huh?

J

J

 

@Jimske I often think about things such as this. I also feel like my brain has trained itself on all games when to look for the exit. I can’t tell you how many times I am on a craps table and look at my wife after I’ve pressed five or six times successfully, “I should probably get off now. I’m feeling a little skittish and it’s probably time.” And sure enough the seven comes up on the NEXT roll. And whereas another couple of hits, I’d have made a ton of money, it wasn’t meant to be. And of course like you mentioned, there are plenty of times where I could have walked out with a five figure payout. But most of the time that internal alarm goes off and it’s right. Same when I’m playing blackjack or roulette. My experience in baccarat is limited but I also feel like I know when to get out. Do I do it? Not always!

Very good discussion.

 

@cps10. I hear what you're saying but what I'm talking about is a little different. Example of gave about winning was just an example. It could be losing or just not winning much or just winning a little bit. It's not about the fear you get when you wim a bunch and you want to take it home you don't want to give it back.

Talking more about statistical patterns. Sometimes I'm just waiting and not betting at all because I don't like the shoe. So I look for a pattern change and think maybe this is it and move on. Of course if it doesn't work I'm not going to beat my head up against the bad game. Because you know something else is bound to happen but you don't know when. And you've seen it so many times before. It's like deja vu all over again.

 

The hardest thing to learn in gambling is to be satisfied with what you have and not worry about what you could have had. The sheer greed of it destroys many people and makes them incapable of making sound decisions. Enough is never enough for them. Where this comes from I don't know. In every other aspect of their lives they are level-headed but in the casino enough is never enough.

 

Very well thought out post. And pretty accurate. Years ago a lot of the brains said winning something like three units a shoe was a holy grail system. But, as has been pointed out several times no matter what the pattern is the next bet is not a sure thing....But, there are patterns that emerge that put the brakes on for me. While there are few green light situations, there are more red light and yellow...
The betting with delayed dlam or oscars grind have been around forever. Played straight up they both have been proven as failures repeatedly.

Betting one side usually Player because of no tax a delayed dlam or any other long progression and get out of the shoe when ahead. Around forever. A lot of restraint is needed to do that. Throwing more money at it to win one unit usually is suicide. The big bank roll is and always has been a fallacy. Can it work? Sure. does it? No, because it fails more often than not. IF and that's if the resident big bankroll oscar's grind dude really plays what he has stated in posts. 200 dollar units multiplyed by 200 units a day. That's 40,000 a day. Soooo he would be banking 1,000,000 dollars every 25 days. I have seen casino's take action on people winning a lot lot less than that. And I mean a lot less.

As for a set algorithm if there was one it would have been found a long time ago. If it has it's the biggest kept secret ever.,

I know JK hates me saying this but, I still think the best play is a fixed patern against your best bet selction. Or even a couple patterns.
The win loss pattern is to me the most important.

I looked for the longest time for information on how Archie Karas played. I figured a run like that Ten K to forty mil that he had to know something.
But of course he lost it all. Everything I found just said he played by the seat of his pants and extremely aggressive with a let it ride attitude.
Watched him play poker on tv a few times. Nothing special. The fact he has since been caught cheating more than once shows his desperation to win again.

I just wanted you know I really enjoyed the read... thanks

 

Great thread. Really interesting. Thanks for something to read while I recover from my trip!

 

@porky I agree with everything you said above.

There was a time when I thought winning just a few units a shoe (average) was not worth the trouble. I've come to realize even half or 1 unit a shoe is viable as long as the shoe win rate was acceptable, so as long as variance doesn't grind you out and/or require huge bets. My personal goal is 4 units a shoe (average) and I pretty much get that regular with play. How?

Experience, consistency, pattern recognition and guessing. I keep a W/L registry as I play so I can keep track of win %. But the W/L registry also helps me see the quality of the game as it moves along. I use a progression both N and P based on defined guidelines. So, for instance, I could be winning a game and still not like the quality of the game if I don't like the W/L registry. Because I am looking and knowing that a good game will come so I am ready to leave with a small win. I am looking for a game that wins real good right off the bat and if it doesn't, I want out! If it does, I will pump a little and stay until the pump loses and take the win.

The problem with all that is with progressions the inevitable Black Swan with my progression which can get pretty deep will destroy much, if not all previous winnings. At this point I could weather a Black Swan, but it still would knock my profits big time. So why not flat bet If I think, as I do, that I win more hands than lose? Time and guessing.

Time. I only want to play maybe 4 shoes a session 3 times a week. Flat betting would invariably give me a lot of losing sessions. With a progression I naturally have to use a smaller base. So I get more units but maybe less $ overall then if, say, I could win 53% of wagers.

Guessing. My bet placements though defined as a guideline are not fixed. If they were then I could run an algorithm and would have no fear that I would lose ITLR. But as Porky says above if there as a BP that wins more than loses it would have been found by now.

So here we are.

J

 

I use a WL Registry with horse racing. It helps me with my defined bet selection and has not failed me ever. Sure I can hit a cold streak but my progression is not dangerous to previous profits. And in the end the Registry catches me back up with every win that follows. Then again the dynamic is different as like poker, you’re betting against fellow horse players, whereas in the casino, you’re battling the house.

 

Just thought you might like to know that Progressive VP has its Black Swans too. We called them "runners". Those rare times when the progressive just never seemed to want to hit. We got on a 5/8 JoB at the Hilton once at $10,500 (It costs about $9,000 to hit with wages) and drove the meter up to $36,000 before we it hit. Took days. It had a backup meter (A second progressive that goes up behind the primary meter) which was $18,800 by the time we hit the first meter, so we had to stay and play for that as well. We hit that pretty quick and only ended up losing about $15,000 on the whole play, but sheesh. Four days of hell and double-back shifts with about 2 hours sleep in-between to lose money. The Hilton was a 2% meter (1% on backup) so each cycle was $3,200 in Meter-Rise on primary and $1600 on BK, which means we went EIGHT cycles without a Royal.

That should only happen about once in 2300 plays for a Royal. I would say that's about how often it happened to us, but wow when that Black Swan comes it's brutal on the bankroll, the body, and especially the mind...you start to feel cursed. You also stop caring who hits the dam thing so long as you get to leave.

At least in baccarat when a black swan comes, it doesn't mean you'll be up for four days straight chasing your losses tied to a machine you're too deep in to leave, or contractually obligated to keep playing.

~FK

P.S. Chasing losses on a progressive is not quite the same as "chasing" in disordered gambling, since the meter keeps getting higher and therefore becomes a bigger edge, there is actually a mathematical justification to chasing. If you were willing to play when it was $10,000 why the hell would you leave when it's $20,000. If there were citizens on the bank when my shift change came to relieve me I'd joke, "Well the Jackpot has gotten too high, I never play over a certain number. I don't like to win that much"

I hope this was on-topic enough, or at least entertaining. I'm told misery loves company.

May your days be filled with only white swans!

 

Back off sooner and perform more mini-recoveries...

It can do when your young and able with plenty of BR

 

Agreed. My progression very conservative. In that respect it has similarities to your strings, just more defined though it doesn't HAVE to be written in stone. The other day I had to recoup and went kind of deep but got back to -2 units while the next bet called for 4 units . Screw it . . . restart at 2 units, win, quit the shoe, lose you're not as deep as you would have been!

 

If you play for long enough it's the inevitable conclusion that you come to. Winning more than one unit is a waste of time. Unless you have a gambling problem, then of course no amount of winning is enough.

 

JK Avatar says it all " Professional Guesser.


Aint that the right attitude ,

 

We are no longer young, dumb and full of come.

P.S. I may have misspelled something there.

 

I've tried this in roulette and when it works it works great, but when it doesn't work it's a colossal failure.

 

It works until it doesn't. Stupid ass sucker shit.

 

Sorry for your losing. It's not easy. My advice to you is just stop playing and leave. Spend time doing other things. Gambling is really not a life!

 

Talk about pattarns. I use 12 regular patterns to make my Tools by excel. And i set target win 5 units and stop loss -9 unit per shoe. It work well day by day.

 

That's what I said, it works when it works but when it doesn't it really screws you. You have to have actual bet selection based on what's happening in front of you. You also have to know when not to bet, which most people have no idea about.

 

I'd like to look at it if there's an explanation someplace. I like what I'm doing but as always something else I might like better. Thanks