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Baccarat Playing (and Winning) Baccarat Over The Long Term

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by gr8player, May 18, 2021.

  1. gr8player

    gr8player Member

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    Based upon what I am reading recently in this forum, I feel compelled to speak my mind. I was about to respond in the particular thread in question, but I did not want to chance "hijacking" anyone else's thread, so here we are. I began my own.

    By way of introduction to those that might not know of me, I've been playing Bac on a weekly basis basis for some 3 decades. I am an experienced "trender" (read: generally speaking, I'll allow the shoe's current propensities to guide my wagering processes on the few fav trends that I prefer) and a rather patient, disciplined and conservative Bac player.

    That all said, I am forever "humbled" by this game. Just when you think you're a sure bet to succeed, this game has a way of humbling you right back down to reality.

    And it is that REALITY, my friends, that compelled me to start a write-up for this thread.

    On another thread, a person for whom I've had nothing but respect for many years, wrote the following sentence: "As long as we have the money and as long as we don't hit the table limit we are very likely with OG to resolve at some point." I must take issue here..."at some point".

    At exactly what "point"? Thousands of units into a linear progression?! Furthermore, I ask this: Towards what end? And I follow up with this: At what "point" (read: at what cost) does the absolute necessity to win each and every session become the worst obsession one could possibly impose upon themselves?

    I suggest the alternative:

    Play Baccarat For The Long-Term

    This first and foremost thing that will do is ALLEVIATE THE PRESSURE TO COME OUT AHEAD ON EACH AND EVERY SESSION. For that, my friends, was the very essence of all those ideas that brought out all those crazy, steep, win-at-all-costs PROGRESSIONS that feebly attempt to ensure a winning session. Alas, instead all they insure is securing a negative mind-set within the Bac player's head that will, sooner rather than later, translate into the absolute dumbest way of approaching this game for any sort of long-term success.

    First of all, don't you think that all of these progressions and "one-side only" wagering plans have been both tested and played ad infinitum over all these years and have already been found to be fruitless.

    Secondly, utilizing a "one-side only" wagering plan is, IMHO, like entering a boxing match with one hand tied behind your back. It's a even-chance game, for Goodness Sake's! I've made probably as much money on Player doms (read: dominations) as I have Banker doms...as I simply key off of repeating singles on EITHER side.

    Finally, what's with the vain attempt to win every session? Just how deep does that money-chase go?

    How about accepting that the cards didn't fall your way today; chase with only a unit or two to try to lessen any possible loss (as long as it's within your set stop loss parameters); and come back tomorrow (or later that day) and begin anew? Don't you think you'd be in a better frame of mind then the one you're in while you're getting you ass kicked? I should think so.

    Look...I utilize a progression myself at times. I'll pick my spots for a couple of parlays (or half-parlays) here and there; and I'll sometimes even raise my unit size a bit after a prior session's loss. But I do that based upon certain variance stats that I keep on each of my preferred trends.

    The important thing is that I refuse to put the added pressure upon me to get the better of the casino at every session. Heck, they've got the built-in advantage and they sure as heck don't get the better of me at every session. And so as you live and you learn at this humbling game, you'd best learn how to take a punch; because, my friends, it's gonna come whether you like it or not.

    Now, you don't have to like it; no one likes a gut-punch. But, you'd better be prepared for it. And have an answer for it. And here's clue number 1: Throwing more and more money at it is NOT the correct answer. Why? Because sooner or later that sort of mindset will do nothing more than to turn both your head and your bankroll into mush.

    Learn that losing is okay. Just as long as its been minimalized. Minimalized losses are the most easily recoverable. Recoverable on a day (or later session) where the cards are falling betting for you, where your opinions (read: bet placements) are actually working for you rather than against you.

    And it is those very sessions, my friends, that I wish for all of us.

    Take care and stay well.
     
    gizmotron likes this.
  2. Myrtlejones

    Myrtlejones Active Member

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  3. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Had ??? That's past tense. LOL I didn't read the rest. I started to but then realized it was just more advice. Which is fine but kind of off topic from the initial "issue" as quoted.

    What you ae missing is the Risk of Ruin calculation based on the specific method. Yes, it is not infallible and under the right circumstances one can and will lose his bankroll which, in this case, is 2000 units. All you really have to do is create a scenario using the described rules and invent a fictitious situation whereby one will lose 2000 units. I'm not going to do it for you but surely you can envision such an imbalance occurring in consecutive shoes. Go ahead and then ask yourself if you've ever seen such an imbalance?

    I have a data base of thousands of shoes that can be "read" easily to search such an imbalance and I can't find it. I have a real good idea what I am looking for. This is not to say that it won't because we KNOW it will. It has to. But the risk of ruin is surely very low.

    So before you go inserting your UNFOUNDED opinion go ahead and present a fictive situation where a 2000 unit loss occurs. Let's see what it looks like!

    J
     
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  4. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Trendings is bollocks, and wagering on players is a lousy proposition. I do agree that cats shouldn't get caught up on tryin to win every single session, hey hey.
     
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  5. Mako

    Mako Well-Known Member

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    @gr8player: Math is math. The odds never change.

    People can shout "play Player too!" to the heavens, but I have 1620 shoes I've played the past 18 months at a profit that say otherwise. You play your way, I'll play my way.

    Tea-leaf readers, "trend" players, all of it, you can keep. If you're winning, good for you. If you're not, test and improve.
     
  6. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    A lotta cats just ain't never gonna get it through their thick skulls that bettin bankers only gonna give em the best strikes rate possible, period, hey hey.
     
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  7. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

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    Three decades of play hasn’t made you rich, but it has given you a sense of entitlement. An entitlement that makes you feel like an expert... which you’re not. You lost me at “experienced trender.”

    haha. HAHAHA, ROFLMAO!!!!

    Okay, you didn’t lose me all the way, just in a similar sense that alrelax loses me. To put it bluntly, sir, you’re full of shit and offer nothing of value to anyone reading what you say. You’re nothing more than a gambler who thinks he has this game figured out, but you don’t. “It’s okay to lose some, just win it back another day.” You probably are used to losing quite a few sessions. I’ll tell you how many sessions I’ve lost in the last 203 days of playing: two. Yep, two sessions. For a combined loss of less that $1,800.

    That’s probably huge for some folks, probably huge for you. Out of those 203 sessions, I’ve won 201 for an average of just a bit over $16,000 a day. Granted that’s split between 4 people, but personally I’ve made over $825,000 since august of 2020. I wonder how that adds up against your “experienced trending.” I highly fucking doubt you’ve made $800,000 in your three decades of play.

    And that’s okay. If it weren’t for “great players” such as yourself, I probably wouldn’t be able to make that much money from the casino. I definitely don’t want every patron here doing what we do. And while I’ve never tried to convince anyone on this board to do what I do, I definitely wouldn’t try to convince them not to. The more and more time I spend on these boards reading from players with similar views as yourself, the more I’m convinced I might actually be one of the few or only ones truly using a working method.

    Not to ruffle any feathers, but if anyone else has made over a million dollars in profit in the last year, please speak up or just give me a virtual high five. Hell, even if someone has profited six figures in any given year, awesome. But gr8... that’s not you, you’re a gambler. Even if you’ve ever crossed that threshold into six figures on an amazing run, you’ve been back and forth for three decades. Don’t encourage people to lose, not here, this is a small forum that makes up the tiniest percent of baccarat players out there playing, they have gone out of their way to be here and to learn. You aren’t teaching shit. You aren’t making shit.

    I keep seeing people on here arguing the very method that I have used to become a millionaire. People like you saying it doesn’t work. I’m fucking right here. Do you see this? Can you read my fucking words? You’ve tried OG in the past, you can claim it doesn’t work... yep, bullshit. You claim that people have probably ran countless of infinite testing, maybe, don’t care. It works in the real world. I don’t tell anyone that this is a guaranteed method. I don’t promise anything, and I’m not selling shit, I’m just trying to stop BULLSHIT. If you went to the casino every day for a year and played OG with a 2,000 unit bankroll, even virtually. I guarantee you’d come back and tell us how wrong you’ve been for three decades. If you were playing virtually, you’d wish you would have used real money. If you bet player every time, you’d come back and probably say it doesn’t work. If you mixed up your bet selections, you’d probably say that it works, but the drawdowns can be deep and you probably need a bigger bankroll. But if you did it all on bank, you’d realize that you just run your mouth too much. I guess I’m a trender too, I bet with the biggest trend in the long-term... bank. How deep will my progressions go, and at what cost. Well, 2,000 units right now, and at the cost of making a lot of money. Easy money? No. But I don’t mind a little bit of work as I plan on leaving 99% of my sessions a winner. I’m not very humble, winning damn near every session has changed me in that sense. I’m no longer surprised at the events and outcomes of the cards. Day after day I overcome it all. And when the day comes that I bust, I’ll laugh it off knowing that I’ve gotten the best of them and I’ll continue doing so.

    When it comes to humility... well, I’ll face the facts, to you or maybe even a few other people, I probably look like an asshole. I’m really finding it funny how many people are creating their own threads inspired by what I do to try and talk it down. I mean it always comes from someone obsessed with their own method that I can easily prove is a losing method, I mean, it’s pointless, you’ll argue it to the death that you can find trends or follow where the shoe is going, use conservative methods, accept your losses here and there, strike them down when you’re running good. Yeah, that’s gambling. And that’s fine.

    One day, probably in the not so near future, someone will create a thread that actually shows the method losing. They might even post the pictures of the shoes they played and probably laugh about it, cause that person will have probably made a lot of money before that point, and they’ll most likely continue doing what they are doing.

    On my last note: I hope you are doing well and if you’ve been doing well with what you do, I hope you continue to do so. And that goes for everyone, it’s my opinion that most things don’t work, because I can sometimes quickly test most ideas and show how they fail, actual real shoes, real failure. If you do have a better method, or a long-term winning method, share with the class. Hopefully it’s something teachable.
     
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  8. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    So people reject conditional based Money Management. So what. They reject knowing when you are doing good or bad. They reject the times when the trends or patterns are hitting as winners. Perhaps these same people like it when trends & patterns are not working and you are losing. That's fine with them. But it makes you wonder just how is it that they can see when trends and patterns are not working. MM is the secret to it all. "Bet big when you are doing good and bet small when you are doing bad." It's as old a the hills.

    Bet big - bet small is the primary strategy to win at card counting in Blackjack. It's the primary strategy at Craps when a player goes on a win streak. It's the main point in Poker. When the trends line up synchronistical with win streaks then the trends act like indicators. You can look at a chart and find 4 or 5 working trends that would be in a winning state had you played them big. But for some dumb reason I always try to hook up with the best looking one.

    So it's fine that many here are willing to make their opinions known about MM, trends & patterns, and conditional bet selections. Those that appose it have no proof that it does not work.

    I'm fine with them. I love it that they want to always win a session. I love it that they promote the use of negative progressions.

    This is what makes up the landscape and brain trust of the gambling community.
     
  9. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I don't believe a word of this.

    If it were true then you have some explaining to do to the Nobel Prize organization. You have also shot yourself in the foot because your claim will shut down Blackjack, Roulette, Craps, and Baccarat. Then there will be all the red faces in the mathematics community that already shit canned your hair brained ideas. You will have made all of them liars.

    And your shinning personality will be published wide spread too.

    Personally I hope you did do the impossible, and raped the mathZombies. It's way too much to hope for. Just imagine you making Albert Einstein wrong. Get out your Class A Tux because you get to step out in front. Try not to be a total jerk.
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2021
  10. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

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    And I don’t believe that you live in a shitty trailer living off of social security without two nickels to rub together.

    ...oh wait, yeah I do. Facts.

    Always good to hear from our resident scammer, Gizmo. But let’s not make it a habit.
     
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  11. porky

    porky Active Member

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    JAE calm down, lol. GR8 showed up years ago a the John Patrick site and did not have the game he has now. I think when he went to Gamblers Glen he thought he could establish a following and become like the Mad Professor at craps.
    The guy who had the moniker on another site that everything works till it doesn't.
    Serves every player well. Why? Think about it. In Poker Doyle Brunson wrote the book on how to win Texas Hold'em.
    He disappeared off tv for two years. When asked why he stated he just couldn't get the cards. Can happen to anybody. I think it is best then to sit out. If you read a guy saying that playing bank only is a non-starter. That could very well be what he has hit.....
    Watched a guy win thousands well over a year. He would start power betting Banker. He was an obnoxious fuck.
    He would laugh at players playing player. Yell at them call them names as well as the dealer. This nasty guy would even spit on the floor. I heard he spit on a dealer once also.
    Well the casino put up with his bull shit and he won power stack after power stack.
    I came back to town a few months later and he was trying to back bet a red chip and the supervisor told him to leave......
    Not everything can win well. But, sadly everything can lose.
    Best of luck BJ
     
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  12. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Let's play with your claimed numbers. You are part of 4 teams that win $4,000 per day each. That explains your claim of $16,000 per day.

    Next you admit to starting your bets at -20 with a dollar value of $10 per unit and a $200 per session win value. But when you lost those two sessions as admitted to above you only lost $1,800.

    So this idea that each team is winning 20 sessions per day sounds sort of Ludacris.

    If you are winning two sessions per day then that means that you are using $100 bets as your start points.

    If that is true then you can't lose two sessions and only have that be $1,800.

    Please explain the very simple Arithmetic. == that you claim is truth.

    I don't believe you because it does not add up.
     
    Last edited: May 19, 2021
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  13. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

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    Here’s the thing about the math, something you probably won’t understand. The math zombies can’t prove that OG doesn’t work.

    All the mechanical systems, they all work. The martingale is a beautiful example. It definitely works, infinitely. But realistically, it fails. Players don’t have an infinite bankroll and the casinos have table limits. Plus, it’s just a HUGE risk for a small return.

    OG is more conservative, and with proper money management gives the player the staying power that they don’t have with other mechanical systems.

    But it’s okay, it’ll never work for you anyways, you actually have to have money to use it.
     
  14. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

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    I never said our unit was $10. We use $100 units. Our goal is to win $20,000 a day.

    We’ve never busted our bankroll. But we have left sessions at a loss. After a long day in our business guest grind to date, we lost over $11,000 this commission after completing the series. We made most of that back the very same day, but called it quits after 16 hours of play with a net loss of over $1,000. And while it is a loss fir that day, I consider it a win overall.
     
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  15. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Yes they can. Dream on.
     
  16. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

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    Thank you for publicly acknowledging that you don’t understand math. Betting banker, OG will always recover. ALWAYS.
     
  17. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I love talking with you. A nudge here and a nudge there and you give up all the important facts. Having spent only 20 minutes to get the facts from Jae here, this entire few months, Does it add up that a lost session with OG would be $100 times the 2,000 units at $100 ( $200,000 ) Jae and his team has never even come close to a loss. I remember crap about being $500+ down and then using MM to protect himself. Where is the missing $200,000 ? This is nothing more than a lucky streak. Or it's a joke.
     
  18. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    If that were true than some other fuck would get the Nobel Prize. Where the heck was that show?
     
  19. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    This is completely ridiculous. A very tired system, Oscar's Grind, progression player is on a win streak and thinks he invented a new twist on a worked and done to death & buried system. It's always that way. They know they are right until they disappear into obscurity. Nobel Prize anyone?
     
  20. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I'm done in this thread too. Jae highjacked it.
     

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