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Baccarat Pondering The "Randomness"

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by soxfan, Feb 7, 2023.

  1. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    So, I was thinkin, the mathite always harumph and bluster, claim that baccarats result are pure random, and as such you can't come up with the betselection to take advantage. But, how random are those result? If they are TRUE random then we should expect to encounter result like longs streak of 70, 80 or more. But we NEVER see long streak like that so that suggest that there are limits to random. And if the result are truly random and subject to the whim of a chaotic maths-based universe then why is it that the streaks distribution result play out rocks solid predictable, long term in such non-random, uniformed, orderly fashion with the ratio of 1 to 2 to 3, etc streak, hey hey????
     
  2. treetopbuddy

    treetopbuddy Member

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    ALL STREAKS END! Imbedded in that statement is the HG.
     
  3. Bombus

    Bombus Well-Known Member

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    ALL STREAKS BEGIN! Imbedded in that statement is the HG.
     
  4. Bombus

    Bombus Well-Known Member

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    SOME STREAKS DECAY BEFORE THEY END! Imbedded in that statement is the HG.
     
  5. Bombus

    Bombus Well-Known Member

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    SOME STREAKS REVIVE AS THEY DECAY BEFORE THEY END! Imbedded in that statement is the HG.
     
  6. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Good post.
    I’m sure the run of 40,50,60,70 of something has , can or will happen due to the so many variables.

    You’re , my lifetime maybe.

    Just because we , the collective we have not witnessed it ( yet) doesn’t mean it’s not possible.

    Personally I have seen 16 ping pong 18 bank, 23 reds all straight. Insufficient data doesn’t make it not possible. Etc.

    The mathaphiles use their statement of random because they are trapped, they need a varification of an absolute before they can make a “bet” . We all know more people die by bus accidents than aircraft crashes and that’s why mathaphiles stay home.

    sometimes I think unpredictable is a better term for baccarat rather than random. I’m a full believer of letting the shoe do as it “does” as it unfolds rather than trying to make it “do” what I think/want it to do.

    The most common bell curve result is ping pong ( bpbpbp, etc) then double, then trips etc. then the parabolic drop is extremely noticeable from quads onward.

    To people on this forum these are fearful events, it’s demonstrated by the various money management strategies posted. I for one as posted previously have used many different betting strategies. Most people need to feel in control and win every time, the last batch of martybationists are either bankroll broken, psychologically broken or gone blind and can’t type anymore. Don’t worry they will be replaced with the new generation of posters here as having discovered the pig in pink lipstick blonde wig , false boobies martybation bet against the streaks holy grail.

    So soxfan you can take comfort that the 50+ streak will not be in our lifetime, perhaps. You can take comfort knowing you can make money from the 1,2,3,4 s etc.
    good post.

    cheers
     
  7. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Oh, no, not again!;)
    That doesn't mean they are not there. Statistically VERY long patterns or events are VERY rare but inevitable. It doesn't mean that there is no such thing as random.
    However in any event we still have the problem of predictability.

    There was a story about stats from the BBC some time ago. A little girl in one part of England had a birthday and released a balloon. It landed some far distance away and was picked up by another little girl. The girl who found it had the same birthday and was the same age. Unusual? Yes. But the comment was that statistically if such NEVER happened THAT would be unusual.

    Then there was the Rand study and book "A Million Random Digits with 100,000 Normal Deviates" Very rare events do happen and are INEVITABLE whether we witness them or not. But once again the problem is predictability so it's like my old friend Lani (the Phlebotomist) who used to run sims for me used to say, "So, it's not random, we still have the problem of predictability."

    J
     
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  8. BlueAngel

    BlueAngel Active Member

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    There are several misconceptions and one of those is to expect results to conform to a statistical average, the probability theory was never meant to be used as a prediction mean, but just to get a crude idea about what you may expect in some vague time on the future, this is way far from the definition of: "certainty", "guarantee"...etc.
    Whatever lies ahead we can never be sure, not in the short term, neither in the long term, not in a month, nor in one year from now.

    As a theory has 0 practical value and only the naïve would even think to implement it as guidance for predictions.
    Another fallacy is to believe that, let's say, in a few days anything could happen but after a month I can be sure...if you are not sure for the net few days to come then why are you sure for something which even further away in time, doesn't the month includes all those few days...?!

    In other words, if you can't do something with little then you will fail with the many as well, consider many and few as the only actual assets one might use to do anything, not just gambling related, that is to say, time and money.
    So how could we not be in doubt?
    My only advise, especially to inexperienced is to try something without any money first, if you find good results then bet it with the least possible the next time and as long as it continues to perform relatively well reward it with your trust and loyalty by gradually raising your BR and bets in a conservative manner.

    That's all
     
  9. Legendary

    Legendary Member

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    Hey all,

    New to this forum but I have been around in other forums. I can see the same folks discussing the same things in circles. Of course you have those that don't have the answer and those that claim they have the same anwer. About 10 years ago, I offered money for those who would want to take on the challenge and none took the offer.

    I consider myself a very good problem solver but it took me over 10 years for Baccarat. I worked on it for hours everyday because my life depended on it. Too much to talk about so I will just focus on this thread.

    As far as streaks, the longest streak that I have come across 12 years ago was 28 and a few months ago, 21. I've seen quite a bit of 16-18, maybe a dozen times. I spend a lot of hours in the casino and I go around all the tables so I have seen quite a bit. The longest chop I have seen was 21. Two of the table might have wiped me out but I did catch the 21 streak.

    Here's how you can improve your game:
    1. Learn from experience and avoid what will wipe you out.

    I'm not all talk so I will explain it. Most people assume that they will be playing 95% or 100% of the shoe. In the case that you go to a slow casino, that might be the case. When I develop an "approach" I look at the possible scenarios and environment. I have about four different approach for the different environment and scenarios. Here, I will only talk about the ones where you can go from table to table or are willing to sit out for a while if you want to while others play. It also assumes you have the whole day to play.

    In any given shoe, once it's in the box, the number of streaks and chops are set. In Roullete, while it is not, you can assume the same. Winning using random against random is possible. Your worst enemy is the the scoreboard. For this experiment, take out 5 of your old shoe. It depends on the number of decks but here, I would assume 8 decks. This gives you no more than 90 hands from all the years I have played. For each shoe, randomly choose about 3-4 numbers spread out. Then you look at the number in the shoe. Whatever the result is next, be it banker or player, if it repeats 4 times, play against it twice. Repeat with the next number. If you lose, let the streak end. If the streak doesn't end once it reach your next number, skip it. You see, it doesn't matter if the streak is 8 or 120, it will not destroy you. In a B&M casino, you can do this going from table to table if the casino allows it. If you see the number and the next result does not repeat 4 times, go to the next number. Try it, you will love it. Thank me later.

    Finally, I need to be clear that this was not my strategy so I will not take credit for it. I came across this strategy on a Youtube video titled "Random against Random". Unfortunately, it is no longer available.

    In my 20 plus years of playing, I have learned a lot and have develop my strategy from other's idea, whether it may sound silly or not, you can always learn from it. I personally think the derived roads are crap, but I have come up with my own derived roads.
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2024
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  10. judge

    judge Active Member

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    Well that was clear as mud!
     
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  11. Legendary

    Legendary Member

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    Well, if you don't see it, you're just out of luck. Perhaps it will be when the dirt sinks. :)
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2024
  12. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Amazing, hey hey!!!!
     
  13. Legendary

    Legendary Member

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    There are always going to be doubters but I'm not here to prove anything. Just want to offer a little treat. Attach is a little video demonstrating how it's done. I play chops as well but this video will only demonstrate streaks. Also, I end an event if a tie happens but in this video, I will ignore the ties. Yes, three consecutive wins proves nothing. I'm not going to do 20 or 30 of them. You can spend your own time doing that.

     
  14. judge

    judge Active Member

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    I'm not a doubter. You probably know what you're doing. It's mud to me. No disrespect meant.
     
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  15. Rond1nell1

    Rond1nell1 Active Member

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    @Legendary
    Thanks for sharing a part of your strategy.
    Unfortunately I didn't understand this part of choosing 3-4 numbers.
    Could you explain in more detail?
    Thanks!
     
    Last edited: Feb 10, 2024
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  16. Legendary

    Legendary Member

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    No worries.
     
  17. Legendary

    Legendary Member

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    Choosing these numbers are not necessary. You can randomly jump in anywhere you want. The 3-4 numbers are hand numbers. Say you choose 17, 29, 44 and 62. After hand 17, you observe the result of hand 18. Say hand 18 is a bank, you wait for 3 more results.

    Hand 18: bank
    Hand 19: bank
    Hand 20: bank
    Hand 21: bank

    Then you would bet player for hand 22 and 23. Your progression will be how much risk you are willing to take or safely you want to grind. If the results were:

    Hand 18: bank
    Hand 19: bank
    Hand 20: Player
    Hand 21:

    Then you would end there and go to the next number. Follow what I've posted in previous post.

    Now you can go see the video and you'll be able to follow along. A lot of skipping hands. You may not even have a hand to play in one shoe. This is why I said it only works for a certain casino environment. Ultimately you want a strategy that you can play every hand. I did come across a post here by someone who explain this. We have the same approach but I don't know his selection. It is a bit to tougher to explain than this and it is my bread and butter.

    If you can arm yourself with just this, it would be enough. Only way to know how affective this is, is to try it.
     
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  18. mansi19896

    mansi19896 Active Member

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    i may have answer but im afraid to tell because casino may change something. Conversation is better privately not out in public
     
  19. mansi19896

    mansi19896 Active Member

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    and do you think it works in rng also ?

    what the longest drawdown has been with this 4 progression for you
     
  20. Legendary

    Legendary Member

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    I doubt casinos are following people in forums. Reminds me of a friend who thinks the casino is following him when his strategies fail.
     
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