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Baccarat PPPP bet B Update

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by fathead, Sep 16, 2021.

  1. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    Updating the PPPP bet B strategy while including the new data that Jimske sent me recently. I have 4062 live shoes now.

    To refresh your memory, when you see a streak of 4 Players (PPPP) you starting betting banker until you get a win. This is still +EV when flat betting, winning +118 units after commission, max 10 losses in a row.

    At a table with a 1 to 1000 limit ($5 to $5,000 or $10 to $10,000) you can use an 11 step martingale. The final step will be 1000 units instead of 1024 but it does not really affects results that much. I think you only made that bet 3 times. If you were to go beyond 11 steps, just continue to bet the table limit until you win. It won't happen that often. See the attached chart below. It earned +6332.5 units profit.

    PPPP bet B 4062.png
     
    Last edited: Sep 16, 2021
    soxfan and Jae like this.
  2. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Bbwwwwwwaaaaaaah, what's this about, a cat on here what talkin sense? The thing about this style is that the 4+ p streaks are so scarce that you don't get many opportunity to make wager and capture profits, hey hey.
     
  3. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    Yes, you are right about that, only about 4 bets per shoe. As someone posted last time, you could make more money working at McDonald's, lol. It is an interesting exercise anyway. Nice to test something that actually shows a profit.
     
  4. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    Once you start betting the higher steps of the Marty, do you even make a profit once you factor in the commission?
     
  5. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    All results are after commission. I think the 7th step you actually start losing increasing amounts on the series but as long as you don't abandon the entire progression it works out in the end. In other words, a setback, not a total loss (total loss would be -2023 units on the 11 steps, 1 to 1000). Notice that you tripled your minimum bankroll in this test.

    There is so much data in that chart that it is hard to see but if you were making money every series the line would be straighter than it is. Since some betting sequences end with a loss there are many small dips in the profit curve on its way up.

    I will post another chart later without commission, so you can see the difference. Testing without commission is just wasting everyone's time, really.
     
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2021
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  6. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    Junket, here is the same test without commission. +8491 units. If we did not have to pay the 5% banker commission, or accept 50% in Super Six, or accept a push in EZ Bac, more of us would win.

    PPPP bet B No Commission.png
     
  7. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    Here is a test (after commission of course) using a Grand Martingale. Here we try to make one unit for each bet we make. We double the bet and then add one unit, (1, 3, 7, 15, 31, 63, 127, 255, 511, 1000, 1000). Since the table limit is 1000, the final two bets will have to be 1000. This earned +9581.35 units.

    PPPP bet B Grand Marty.png
     

  8. Myrtlejones

    Myrtlejones Active Member

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    Fat head you are on the right track, i have what i call the golden rule in baccarat and that rule is to never bet against permutations from shoe results and that is what you are doing(just my opinion) waiting for 4 players is not a profitable venture in the long run, take it a step further and turn those shoe results into combinations, you can do that with the letters and numbers, from there you can taper results down which will return to part permutations from those results, you are at the 90% range betting against shoe results (4PPPP) which is not good enough, you can improve to around 95% in the second stage (es,os,1s,2s,) which is getting close to a very high winning percentage but the final step puts you at 98.7% betting 3 times that 3 number results will not go over 6.Once three 2s come you bet for a 1 to come and same when three 1s come bet for a 2, that is 98.7%, to me this is the closest think you will ever get to the holy grail, its all about structure shoe results create straight lines and angles. Bx Three bankers are a straight line BxPe2 this is an angle Bx1PoBo2 is a straight line Bx1Po this is last angle
    2Be 2Be Pe1
    Bo1

    The shoe has to go in one of these directions i think every one will agree, straight lines are odd when added and angles are even when added.
    Fat head you are half way to the holy grail , you seem to be pretty good with the math thing and computer part so take a close look and you will find it, i have messaged 2 very smart posters on this site both are well known and have been in play with bac for a long time both are tops in the math area and i have offered this to each and they know who they are, i will not put names out but i asked the first to send me a shoe and i would explain the system but shoe never arrived so i was understanding the interest was not in play and that is fine all the best and no hard feelings, the second responded that he normally would not look into something like what i had but if he had time he would take a quick look so i responded that i get his vibe that there is no interest and it was left at that and again no hard feelings
     
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  9. Myrtlejones

    Myrtlejones Active Member

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    upload_2021-9-17_13-38-38.png

    sorry format changed when posted not the best with computer stuff
     
  10. Mako

    Mako Well-Known Member

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    Let me guess, one was Jerome and his response was meh.

    What you're basically trying to do is leverage favorable probability for a short term win in terms of bet selection. If paired with a not ridiculous/greedy/aggressive money management approach it could see good results.

    I like it.

    If you're lucky and disciplined, those results could go for a long bit. If unlucky or greedy, well, "the world needs ditch-diggers too".
     
  11. Myrtlejones

    Myrtlejones Active Member

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    Do not know who Jerome is, but in reference to your statement it can not go on for long periods of time for the simple fact you will only be betting the interior not the straight lines, what fathead is doing is waiting for 4 players (straight line) odd numbers what i am doing is betting for angles to come, the opposite of fathead, chops and runs of banker player will create a straight line example 21212121 or cops 12121212 fat head is betting for a cop to come i am not
     
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  12. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    Myrtle, I feel like you are a winning player. However, I don't really understand your notations (BxPe2) or what you mean by angles. I am sure it is second nature and obvious to you. If you could give me one simple example that I can understand I will try to test it.

    To me it is all about losses in a row. Since there are only 2 sides (B or P) and B wins more than P (50.7% vs 49.3%) the shortest sequence available to us is a P streak. Any mixture of B in the streak lengthens it because B wins more often. For example you will have fewer losses in a row betting against PPPP repeating than betting against PPPB repeating.
     
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  13. Myrtlejones

    Myrtlejones Active Member

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    Fathead i find what beats anyone in this game is streaks, i find it hard to bet banker or player after a lot of repeats so i pay no attention to the shoe, my reply went out of format so go down to where i posted the next page you will see 3 bankers that is a straight line, angles are double plus chop or single plus double, 3 chops are another straight line, look at the numbers lines are odd angles are even. Sorry have to go for now wife in car yelling
     
  14. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    Some cats just ain't never gonna come to grip with the fact that makin wager on player is a lousy, coconut proposition. Just for giigle and kick the fat-head should test to see the result for bettin p after the pppp streaks pop, hey hey.
     

  15. porky

    porky Active Member

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    Played a shoe this week that had 8 players. Then it went back and forth then hit a whopping 16 players in a row. Was on it at 6 flat bet out of the hole. A complete waste of the streak. But, there is no way to know how far it will go.....
    A while back watched one just like it where a chop better kept elevating their bet till they had no chips. Dug through every pocket they had and put it all on the table lint and all. The chop hit and they acted like they won the lottery. Forget all the lost money. Idiots.
     
  16. Junket King

    Junket King Well-Known Member Compulsive Liar

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    Controlling the LIAR, spot on.

    When I first started playing Baccarat, I played AS4 "Anti-streak after 4", moving around tables, it actually proved very profitable after 3 months of play.

    I don't know the impact of only betting against 4P, other than fewer betting opportunities and how how viable that would be in a smaller joints (not very I assume).

    Me personally, I limited my "AS" bets to 3, not sure what your doing FatHead, a single bet?

    So PPPP bet B lose
    PPPPP bet B lose
    PPPPPP bet B lose, wait for another PPPP opportunity.

    So long Player streaks are of no consequence.

    If you are only placing 1 bet after PPPP, you are going to need a lot of tables and be able to move fast.
     
  17. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    Stopping at 3 attempts tests well. Honestly, just betting with no limit until you win tests as well as anything else on the data that I have. If I had a million shoes I might have a different outlook.

    In any case, you are betting the outcome that occurs most often (Banker) against the shortest sequence in baccarat (Player streak) so this may be as good as it gets, unfortunately. I don't really bet it because it only places 4 bets per shoe, on average. Maybe if you were betting multiple tables in a stadium situation it might be more practical.
     
  18. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    LOL! You made my day with that comment. I have been married for many years so I get it.

    So BBP is an angle? What is the bet?

    You mentioned BBPPBB you bet B (breaking the twos)? Is this correct? Just trying to understand.
     
  19. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    16 players would hurt, losing over -2000 units. You could recover eventually but it would be very disheartening, especially at 4 bets per shoe.
     
  20. fathead

    fathead Active Member

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    I think you know the answer to that one, Sox. :)
     

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