Craps Pressing your Placebets - Optimal Strategy

What would you like to do Sir? I press, in fact if I ever say same bet - please have me removed from the Casino.

The eight was rolled six times and the six was rolled eight times. Under Grafstein Press system, this meant 12$-18$-30$-42$-60$-90$-120$-180$...great pressing structure.

But what does it mean and how is my PROFIT vs. a player that same bets, or a Same Bet, Press, Same Bet press type scenario.

Have you ever worked out the impact on your bankroll both short term and long term - and the volatility it represents. Can you handle that volatility? Are you able to lose on the balance to GAIN on ONE MONSTER HAND ... that really is the question.

Here is how the math looks in 4 different scenario's and the bank roll implications...I base it on a variable dice rolling spreadsheet...and walk through how Sam Grafstein would bet the hand, a Same Bettor would bet the hand (same bet fairly straight forward) and a Same Bet Press bettor - who takes a small profit and then parlays full, takes a same bet, then parlays in full, and finally a hybrid or Grafstein and Same Betting, strategically taking a same bet at certain levels...

First, here is a spreadsheet of the roll, you'll notice I've broken down the Pass Line play - using Grafstein's methods as well to outline 10 shooters Qualified or until the entire $350.00 bank roll is used up.

Here is a chart of a recent session - This is my first shooter - very impressive hand - although the bad news is at the end of 10 qualified shooters I actually just came out a head....kind of sad all things considered.

Let's use these hand examples of the six - eight press.

SAME BETTOR

First hand - rolls 8-12 - hits 2 sixes - same bets each time - collects 28$ original bet is 24$ so up 4$ in profit.
Second hand - rolls 13-15 - takes down his 12$ on the eight. No wins.
Third hand - rolls 16-18 - bets a 12$ eight - hits once for 14$ profit ... now up 18$ total.
Fourth hand - no wins.
Fifth hand - take back 12$ bet back as 8 is the point so in a sense a stop loss measure - add to the 18$ = 30$ total profit betting 6/8 for the shoot.

Summarize - Straight forward betting taking a same bet each time. Odd hand in a sense as few roles between points.

GRAFSTEIN BETTOR - 12 to 18 to 30 to 42 etc.

First hand - rolls 8-12 - hits 2 sixes - first bet collects 8$ and press to 18 - second bet press to 30 and collect 9$ in change.
Second hand - rolls 13-15 - takes down his 12$ on the eight. No wins.
Third hand - rolls 16-18 - bets a 12$ eight - hits once for press to 18$ ... now up 1$ total taking 17$ in first hand with 8$ in this hand less 24$ bet.
Fourth hand - no wins.
Fifth hand - take back 18$ bet back as 8 is the point so in a sense a stop loss measure - add to the 1$ = 19$ total profit betting 6/8 for the shoot.

Summarize - Again, you lose 30$ on the six, have more ACTION but pay for the right to that action and increase volatility...come out 11$ short of the same bettor.

SAME PARLAY SAME BETTOR - Same bet to full Parlay take a Same Bet - Rinse Repeat

First hand - rolls 8-12 - hits 2 sixes - first bet collects 14$ and same bets - second bet press to 24 and collect 2$ in change. Total 16$ in your lock up...outlay of 24$ down 8$.
Second hand - rolls 13-15 - takes down his 12$ on the eight. No wins.
Third hand - rolls 16-18 - bets a 12$ eight - hits once for same bet 14$ ... now up 6$ as you have 24$ in initial outlay and 30$ collected.
Fourth hand - no wins.
Fifth hand - take back 12$ bet back as 8 is the point so in a sense a stop loss measure - add to the 6$ = 18$ total profit betting 6/8 for the shoot.

Summarize - Again, you lose 24$ on the six, have more ACTION but pay for the right to that action and increase volatility...come out 12$ short of the same bettor.

GRAFSTEIN BETTOR - Hybrid - so press but take a same bet every fifth win on a number so at 60$ ... to start.

First hand - rolls 8-12 - hits 2 sixes - first bet collects 8$ and press to 18 - second bet press to 30 and collect 9$ in change.
Second hand - rolls 13-15 - takes down his 12$ on the eight. No wins.
Third hand - rolls 16-18 - bets a 12$ eight - hits once for press to 18$ ... now up 1$ total taking 17$ in first hand with 8$ in this hand less 24$ bet.
Fourth hand - no wins.
Fifth hand - take back 18$ bet back as 8 is the point so in a sense a stop loss measure - add to the 1$ = 19$ total profit betting 6/8 for the shoot.

Summarize - Again, you lose 30$ on the six, have more ACTION but pay for the right to that action and increase volatility...come out 11$ short of the same bettor.

Note: exact same as the Grafstein bettor because you only take advantage of the Same bet at certain intervals - first being 60$ ... then at 420$...no impact.

So in this "standard example" you really don't win at all with Grafstein Press - in fact you are down 30% to a same bettor.

More Volatile - so why Press? What is the motivation to press if like me - this is the standard - six and eight hit only a couple of times - nothing severe - no MIRACLE on the FELT.

Why not take what you can - when you can and safely SAME BET each time in this situation?

So this was the first Qualfied shooter - I reviewed the remaining shooters and this was absolutely the best from both Passline and Place Betting. Only other comparison was 3 eights one hand...nothing to write home about and again the Same Bettor wins out.

Bank Roll Volatility ... the game of craps hooks us because of the adrenalin - bunch of people all winning lots of money around a table - but how often does that happen? Truth is the hook is that 1/50 hand that shows - where we press - press - press and take our winnings past anyone else at the table. Herein lies the rub - We need to see at least 4 hits on the 6/8 to out run the same bettor - but at that point - it's the Stratoscale ... after 10 hits - the MONSTER Hand the difference is almost 700$.

So that's the question - are you willing to give up 10$ here and there to one day cash in for hundreds...and get it all back. That is the Volatility you have to take into account and how you outrun the vig - that one time the monster shows - are you ready to hammer it?

 

Thanks for sharing this thought provoking thread!

BB

 

Grafstein Disciple,
Excellent post, clear coherent thinking. Shows you can think outside the box. Bravo!!!!
thekid1921

 

Amazing. I read this 2 times & didn't understand much +-. But as I read each time, I got the same feeling that I get when I pass a craps table.. Hairs standing up & goosebumps. I MUST LEARN THIS GAME.

 

I appreciate the comments - just to clarify - the original article had an excel spreadsheet built in .. for reference ... the simulation was a set of dice outcomes and the reference to the roll# was the rolls on a spreadsheet. Without that spreadsheet it's a tougher read.

Bottom line is the simulation was an attempt to show players that whatever system they employ - it all impacts long term and short term volatility and bank roll. At some point, Pressers have to accept that over all they will lose more often to have a chance to recoup those loses on a LONG roll, so in a sense are WHALE HUNTERS vs. Fishermen. I still like to Press my bets, because when that hand shows - I want the full court profit - I prefer to take my hits and losses to make it up when I have pressed a 12$ bet to $600.00. Although very very rare - it does show - and that's the thrill of the game for me. Again, to get to that point - I have to suffer because I am always pressing!

I think too often - players who don't play enough - get hit hard because they are pressing when maybe a same bet strategy would be a better play. And even have considered - Is there a better way - where perhaps I press lighter, same bet a bit - and then HAMMER Parlays - when a six/eight is rolled over and over.

Like Sam Grafstein says - "all systems work at some time!!!" ....is there a definitive strategy ... I think not...we're always up against 1.51% on these place bets.

 

Aside from the differing degrees of volatility of the different bets themselves, the primary source of variance in craps comes from varying the bet amounts. Some people increase bet amounts after a win, some after a loss, some use a regression to "lock up" a win.

To illustrate the "continuum of progressiveness", so to speak, I wrote a computer program to compare some different betting strategies for placing the 6. We will call them "the four guys". Everyone starts at $18. Guy #1 then regresses twice before going back up, then regresses again. Guy #2 increases his bets a unit at a time, but only every other bet. Guy #3 progresses a unit at a time every bet. Guy #4 doubles first and then adds $18 each bet. So, their bet series are:

Guy #1 18,12,6,12,18,24,18,12,6,12,18, etc.
Guy #2 18,18,24,24,30,30,36,36,42,42,48, etc.
Guy #3 18,24,30,36,42,48,54,60,66,72,78, etc.
Guy #4 18,36,54,72,90,108,126,144,162,180,198, etc.

Each progression was expressed as an algorithm, so it could go indefinitely.

My program examines the net outcome for each of these "Guys" after different numbers of hits, always assuming that the next bet is lost. So, they all lose $18 if they lose the first bet. If they win the first, then lose, only Guy #1 has a profit, since he locked up his initial win. Here is a chart of all four Guys' net results for zero through 20 hits, along with the probabilities of each number of hits:

Code:

num hits guy 1 guy 2 guy 3 guy 4    prob
0          -18   -18   -18   -18 .545455
1            9     3    -3   -15 .247934
2           29    18    19     9 .112697
3           30    46    48    54 .051226
4           38    68    84   120 .023285
5           53   103   127   207 .010584
6           87   132   177   315 .004811
7          114   174   234   444 .002187
8          134   210   298   594 .000994
9          135   259   369   765 .000452
10         143   302   447   957 .000205
11         158   358   532  1170 .000093
12         180   408   624  1404 .000042
13         221   471   723  1659 .000019
14         255   528   829  1935 .000009
15         282   598   942  2232 .000004
16         302   662  1062  2550 .000002
17         303   739  1189  2889 .000001
18         311   810  1323  3249 .000000
19         326   894  1464  3630 .000000
20         348   972  1612  4032 .000000

"Mr. Conservative" is still ahead after two hits, but then falls behind fast. It only takes Guy #4 three hits to take the overall lead, but he doesn't net a profit until two hits, so he's losing money almost 80% of the time.

The program also figured the weighted net outcome for each guy for zero through ten hits:

Guy 0 weighted net is -0.413625
Guy 1 weighted net is -0.543476
Guy 2 weighted net is -0.639012
Guy 3 weighted net is -0.916979

This simply reflects the fact that the expectation is always edge * action; it also favors the lower bettors because it does not consider streaks longer than ten, which can occur.

I extended the program to simulate a series of place-6 bets and ran 10,000 sessions of 60 bets each. The overall W-L percentage was .453978, so the sample was slightly unfavorable. Each player experienced exactly the same bet results, since they were standing right next to each other, making the same bet but each in his own amount. It takes about 200 rolls to resolve 60 place bets on the six, so these sessions would take somewhere in the neighborhood of two hours.

Code:

        mean net result median net result standard deviation
Guy 1        -$14.95              -$14               $130
Guy 2        -$19.23              -$26               $166
Guy 3        -$22.24              -$37               $200
Guy 4        -$31.35              -$81               $323
  
            winning sessions breakeven sessions losing sessions
Guy 1             4599                  6            5395
Guy 2             4342                 47            5611
Guy 3             4223                 19            5758
Guy 4             3965                 12            6023
        
      lost > $300 lost > $500 won > $300 won > $500 max win max loss
Guy 1         154           3         63          0    $416     $509
Guy 2         384           5        357         22    $641     $579
Guy 3         659          17        618        128    $894     $644
Guy 4        2051         257       1424        614   $2112     $786

skew
Guy 1 -.06
Guy 2 .25
Guy 3 .50
Guy 4 1.14

The idea here is to isolate the effect of progressing/regressing bets by looking at just one bet at a time.

Cheers,
Alan Shank

 

I like your style, very similar to my way of betting/thinking.

 

I have a question Alan, and I love your posts!!

If you have one gambler who over the course of a lifetime makes a steady bet let's say at 300.00 on the Six, and over the course of time makes 1000 bets ... or 300,000$ total, and another who walks up the the table and makes ONE $300,000.00 bet...then in theory the VIG on the bet's are the same.

Player one Wins $50,000 over the course of his lifetime and player one wins $50,000 over the course of his lifetime...so in a sense the Vig is always 1.51%.

This is my assumption - just want to make sure it's correct?

 

So what is the final score after one million rolls of the dice?

 

Two of my favorite Dice characters on one thread. But not seen since March 8th (Goatcabin). Hope The Fritz comes back too, he is the bomb!