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Poker Probability (%) to Odds to Pot Fraction in Holdem

Discussion in 'Poker Forum' started by jackie finlay, Feb 6, 2015.

  1. jackie finlay

    jackie finlay New Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2015
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    Location:
    United Kingdom
    —The Probability (%) to Odds (/1) to Pot Fraction Chart—

    Screen Shot 2013-12-08 at 08.20.40.png

    Probability (%) :- Tells you how often something Will happen.
    Odds (/1) :- Tells you how often something Will Not happen.
    e.g. You calculate the opponents have 6 % equity against you. 6 % = 15 / 1 Odds.
    Run the situation sixteen times, you win fifteen times the opponents Will win once.

    Pot Fraction :- Tells you your Odds when drawing and lets you set the Odds when opponents draw against you.

    ++++++++++ Pot Fraction Controls Everything ++++++++++

    —Two Rules of Thumb—

    1 When calculating Draws or Made Hands against you, each individual hand (3d 3s)
    is worth 0.1 %.
    (It’s actually 0.092 % on flop, 0.096 % on turn and 0.101 % on river).
    e.g. You calculate 12 individual hands make a Set 12 * 0.1 % = 1.2 % chance of each opponent having a Set.

    2 Phil Gordon’s 4&2 Rule, each out with one card to come is worth 2 %, each out with two cards to come is worth 4 %.
    (each out with one card to come 2.127 % on flop, 2.173 % on turn)
    (each out with two cards to come 4.255 %).
    e.g. On the turn (10 outs * 2 % = 20 %) = 4 / 1 Odds, which is a third of the Pot.
    e.g. On the flop (6 outs * 4 % = 24%) = 3.1 / 1 Odds, which is half the Pot.
     
    Fritz likes this.
  2. TEACH (AlSpath)

    TEACH (AlSpath) Active Member Founding Member

    Joined:
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    Occupation:
    Poker Instructor
    Location:
    Maryland USA
    Can you take this post and break it down with explanations for each part. I have many clients and former clients of mine interested in more detail and discussion about the above post, and so do I, let's look a bit closer and provide us with more insight please, thanks. al
     
  3. jackie finlay

    jackie finlay New Member Founding Member

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    Location:
    United Kingdom
    Formula to convert Per cent to Odds :- ( 100 / p ) - 1
    e.g. (( 100 / 9 ) = 11 ) - 1 = 10 / 1 Odds
    (( 100 / 4 ) = 25 ) - 1 = 24 / 1 Odds

    Pot Fraction :- Two chips in the pot you bet one which is half the pot. An opponent will have to put one chip in to take three out 3/1 Odds.

    Calculate each Individual Hand

    On Flop 47 unseen cards
    COMB ( 47 , 2 ) ( 47 * 46 ) / ( 1 * 2 ) = ( 2162 / 2 ) 1081 total possible hands
    1 / 1081 = 0.00092 0.092 %

    On Turn 46 unseen cards
    COMB ( 46 , 2 ) ( 46 * 45 ) / ( 1 * 2 ) = ( 2070 / 2 ) 1035 total possible hands
    1 / 1035 = 0.00096 0.096 %

    On River 45 unseen cards
    COMB ( 45 , 2 ) ( 45 * 44 ) / ( 1 * 2 ) = ( 1980 / 2 ) 990 total possible hands
    1 / 990 = 0.00101 0.101 %

    e.g. Make a Straight by the River

    TWEET working out.png
     
  4. jackie finlay

    jackie finlay New Member Founding Member

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    e.g. On the Turn, calculate the probability of an opponent having a Pocket Pair

    Screen Shot 2015-02-06 at 23.31.48.png
     
  5. jackie finlay

    jackie finlay New Member Founding Member

    Joined:
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    6
    Location:
    United Kingdom
    If the river is the 8d and there is three opponents in the pot,
    what are the Odds of winning the game ?
    a) 2.7/1
    b) 3.3/1
    c) 4.7/1

    question 4.png
     

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