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Baccarat Progressions

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Jimske, Mar 15, 2019.

  1. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    Maybe we can have some basic discussions without all the nonsense?

    In my way of thinking progressive betting doesn't have to be a linear concept. Varying bet sizes is also progressive betting. And there's lots of ways to do it. I'll mention one here that I like from Stetson Bailey: He calls it +1,-1 Flat. It's a modified D'Alembert. The "1" is any amount you want. Up 1 on a loss, down 1 on a win but stay at same size if win 2IAR.

    So just as McVince mentioned bet selections are "templates." Progressions are also templates. Meaning they're foundations which need adjustments at times. Generally the adjustments have todo with reducing escalation to keep things under control.

    J
     
  2. tomla

    tomla Member Founding Member

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    HI Jim , hope all is well! I like a parlay method 1111222233334444..... , if you win you parlay the bet and step back on the scale on a double win....its kinda continuous with a decent bankroll
     
  3. eugene

    eugene Active Member

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    Sputnik mentioned Koetsch's book over on Vic's forum. It's a good book to see how different types of progressions fare taking into account a lot of different factors like for example.... 1) what's a reasonable BR for a session. 2) worst loss over so many rounds. 3) Best gain over so many rounds. 4) How many reversals over so many rounds meaning how many times did the session turn positive from a negative etc..

    His favourite after a lot of research and real live play was what he termed G3M1. This stands for a 124 positive progression which is allowing a winning bet to ride 3 times and betting 2 chips after losing any of the 124 steps. (G stands for Geometric and M stands for Martingale)
     
  4. cps10

    cps10 Member

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    This is a good discussion. I always take a bet selection that I may have and apply a number of various progressions to see which works best. I am a little confused on the G3M1. Could you give an example using an actual card you have to give us an idea on how to work it? TIA
     
  5. cps10

    cps10 Member

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    Jimske - if you could as well that would be much appreciated.
     
  6. eugene

    eugene Active Member

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    Different scenario's for the G3M1.

    Betting Bank.

    B bet 1. win (geometric phase)
    B bet 2. win (geometric phase)
    B bet 4. win (geometric phase) Total win = +7. end of attack.

    B bet 1. win (geometric phase)
    B bet 2. win (geometric phase)
    B bet 4. lose (geometric phase)
    B bet 2. lose (martingale phase) Total loss = -3. end of attack.

    B bet 1. lose (geometric phase)
    B bet 2. lose (martingale phase) Total loss = -3. end of attack.

    B bet 1. win (geometric phase)
    B bet 2. win (geometric phase)
    B bet 4. lose (geometric phase)
    B bet 2. win (martingale phase) Total win = +1. end of attack.

    B bet 1. win (geometric phase)
    B bet 2. lose (geometric phase)
    B bet 2. win (martingale phase) Total win = +1. end of attack.

    You can only ever end up winning 1 unit if you are successful on the martingale phase and will always lose 3 units if you are unsuccessful on the martingale phase.
    A positive result on the geometric phase winning all three bets results in a win of 7 units.
     
  7. R19

    R19 Active Member

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    Which is more likely?

    W W W

    or

    W W L
     

  8. eugene

    eugene Active Member

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    Personally speaking, if I didn't have an idea what was more likely at the time, then I wouldn't be betting anyhow. But obviously the idea above is still to come away frequently with that 1 unit profit by tacking on the martingale as a last step.
     
  9. R19

    R19 Active Member

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    Thanks - Looking at 1 4 2 M1 vs 1 2 4 M1 and the logic of each.

    I am mostly focused on 1 3 2 and also now thinking about 1 3 2 with M1
     
  10. cps10

    cps10 Member

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    Thank you. That makes sense.
     
  11. eugene

    eugene Active Member

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    No doubt this is all true Jimske as the following shoe indicates. There are 33 Banker decisions vs 21 Player decisions with Banker never going behind after hand 5. So let's see how it pans out using the G3M1 that I mentioned above.

    I will start with betting Banker and I am just going to write the result of the decision along with the total running win or loss resulting from the stake placed (which anybody can read about above) and also include if it was in G phase (geometric) or M phase (martingale)

    P -1 G
    B +1 M (+1)

    P -1 G
    B +1 M (+2)

    B +1 G
    P -1 G
    B +1 M (+3)

    B +1 G
    B +3 G
    P -1 G
    P -3 M (+0)

    B +1 G
    B +3 G
    B +7 G (+7)

    B +1 G
    B +3 G
    B +7 G (+14)

    B +1 G
    B +3 G
    B +7 G (+21)

    P -1 G
    P -3 M (+18)

    P -1 G
    P -3 M (+15)

    P -1 G
    B +1 M (+16)

    B +1 G
    B +3 G
    B +7 G (+23)

    B +1 G
    P -1 G
    P -3 M (+20)

    B +1 G
    P -1 G
    B +1 M (+21)

    B +1 G
    B +3 G
    P -1 G
    B +1 M (+22)

    P -1 G
    P -3 M (+19)

    B +1 G
    B +3 G
    B +7 G (+26)

    P -1 G
    P -3 M (+23)

    B +1 G
    B +3 G
    B +7 G (+30)

    B +1 G
    P -1 G
    B +1 M (+31)

    P -1 G
    P -3 M (+28)

    Betting Player side to follow....
     
  12. eugene

    eugene Active Member

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    Betting the Player side.

    P +1 G
    B -1 G
    P +1 M (+1)

    B -1 G
    B -3 M (-2)

    P +1 G
    B -1 G
    B -3 M (-5)

    B -1 G
    P +1 M (-4)

    P +1 G
    B -1 G
    B -3 M (-7)

    B -1 G
    B -3 M (-10)

    B -1 G
    B -3 M (-13)

    B -1 G
    B -3 M (-16)

    B -1 G
    P +1 M (-15)

    P +1 G
    P +3 G
    P +7 G (-8)

    P +1 G
    B -1 G
    B -3 M (-11)

    B -1 G
    B -3 M (-14)

    B -1 G
    P +1 M (-13)

    P +1 G
    B -1 G
    P +1 M (-12)

    B -1 G
    B -3 M (-15)

    B -1 G
    P +1 M (-14)

    B -1 G
    P +1 M (-13)

    P +1 G
    B -1 G
    B -3 M (-16)

    B -1 G
    P +1 M (-15)

    P +1 G
    B -1 G
    B -3 M (-18)

    B -1 G
    B -3 M (-21)

    P +1 G
    B -1 G
    P +1 M (-20)

    P +1 G (-19)

    Not really a total disaster of sorts but who would continually bet Player in such a situation. The point is that a progression or any kind of MM doesn't much help if someone would just use it indiscriminately hoping they can force the issue.
     
  13. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    Seems like it would have decent amount of "torque" to get some good wins. But look at a common loss of 5IAR. Lose 6 units and win a 2 unit parlay = -2 units; stepping back then to 1 unit wouldn't likely put you deep in the hole, maybe break even or get a 1 unit win. But if you lose 7IAR still at a 2 unit bet and a parlay win still gives you a lot of work to recoup UNLESS you jump the prog to a higher level.
     
  14. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    I think Glen advocates the UAYW part of the 124 and I come to like it more and more. Has more torque than the Charles Guetting I believe.

    So lose 124 and bet 2 with a loss and down 9; So got to win 3IAR more often than lose 4IAR; Still keeps you in pretty good shape with WL or WWL w/o the increased escalation. Also bumping up to 248 in a good shoe is viable. Not sure if I like the add 2 chips after a loss. That gives 11 unit loss with lose 5IAR?
     

  15. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    Lost 9IAR which is infrequent event. The nice thing is if you win 9IAR you get +21 vs. -9 unit if you just flat bet!
     
  16. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    I guess Eugene answered your questions?

    Negative progressions all have the same problem, IMO. When they start to break down you're going to escalate. We can't get large losses back with the small wins they generally produce. So you can't go back to a small restart. So as I wrote Tomla progression above you got to restart at higher level OR...OR limit the prog escalation and cut back to a lower unit size BEFORE it gets too deep.

    Positive progressions do seem to be a lot less risky. Example with the 124. LLLLL = -5. WW = -2 now. Do you bet 4? Depends. Where are you in the shoe? How's the shoe or session going overall? How does that fit into your MM strategy? Point is you don't HAVE to bet 4 units.
     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2019
  17. Jimske

    Jimske Active Member Founding Member

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    IMO using progressions, up or down connotes grind play. To me this is a grind game. Someone like Assym or McVince apparently betting few units in a shoe. Looking for spots. Spot play.
     
  18. R19

    R19 Active Member

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    This is actually a complex aspect of the game. As JB would note, the progression doesn't have to be on consecutive hands or consecutive bets. For example, of a base is 1 unit and the next hands call for 3 or 4 units, does one automatically place that or place if those hand(s) 'look good'?
     
  19. stephen

    stephen New Member

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    Parlay Progression 1:
    2(6),3(7),4(7),5(6),7(7),9(6),12(6),16(6),22(8),29(7),39(8),52(8)
    The amount within brackets is the amount won if the parlay is successful. You have to win back to back in 12 attempts.
    The total amount lost if you are unsuccessful to win a parlay in 12 attempts is 200 units.

    Parlay Progression 2:
    2(6),2(4),2(2),2(0),4(4),6(6),8(6),12(10),16(10),22(12),30(14),40(14),54(16)
    The total amount lost if you are unsuccessful to win a parlay in 13 attempts is 200 units.
     
  20. eugene

    eugene Active Member

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    Here is a question though and it's not a trick one! If anybody on here could average between 15-25 bets per shoe and also average roughly a few units per shoe flat betting after taxes, would they be happy with that or would they lose interest in the game because let's face it, without knowing everybody's business, I am assuming most people couldn't afford to place bets in the thousands. So winning an average of a few units per shoe is not really going to be much more beneficial than working for most. I am wondering if the allure of progressions is some kind of false hope for a lot of players and more a dream of untold riches for when they find just the right progression. Is that why most of the gambling books for sale are heavy on MM and light on BS (That's bet selection) :) I think I already know the answer but it's a curious one because I have often thought chasing just the right MM is putting the cart before the horse. Anyway, not to dampen the spirit of the thread because I am enjoying reading/participating in it.
     
    Last edited: Mar 16, 2019

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