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Baccarat Progressions

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Jimske, Mar 15, 2019.

  1. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Yes the D'Alembert is the backbone of a lot of progressions and their variations. I use a variation. But since you can't win more hands than lose it will ultimately fail.
     
  2. Blacktiger

    Blacktiger Active Member

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    Bets results -> +1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 +3..

    what progression you would suggest for these results?
     
  3. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    If you get 10 consecutive losses in a row you should work about your bet selection and not trying to find out solutions with progressions.

    Moreover, it's completely unsound to raise the bets in the middle of a losing streak, this is the main reason why most players quit the table broke.

    as.
     
  4. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    55, member: 821"]If you get 10 consecutive losses in a row you should work about your bet selection and not trying to find out solutions with progressions.

    Moreover, it's completely unsound to raise the bets in the middle of a losing streak, this is the main reason why most players quit the table broke.

    as.[/QUOTE] I guess that's a typo? You must mean worry about your bet selection?

    Lots of people consider three in a row a streak. I know people who would stop after losing three in a row and wait for a win before proceeding. My experience is generally that turns out to be a wash except those times when you do run into long losing streaks like above.

    So if you do that it will prevent what could become a real black swan event. But then LLLWLLLWLLLW can also foil you!

    J
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2023
  5. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I'll add something else since this is my thread. You really can't expect to win with a thirty percent strike rate like above. But consider that above you just lost only fourteen units. The casino now owes you a lot of wins. You now need a plan. There's lots of ways. But one way would be just to flat bet using a unit size your bankroll can afford. It's just a matter of time before you get up into at least the 47% strike rate which could get you even depending upon the unit size or close to something you can handle and restart.

    J
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2023
  6. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    10+ losses in a row is normal variance in a near 50:50 game. It is inevitable. No bet selection can prevent it.
     
  7. Zhang Wei

    Zhang Wei Active Member

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    Problem is win rate must be above 50%. Below 50% your bets escalate very quickly.
     
    Jimske likes this.

  8. Zhang Wei

    Zhang Wei Active Member

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    10+ losses in a row is uncommon. Good bet selection can cut down the frequency of the long losing streaks.
     
    asymbacguy likes this.
  9. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    Btw, casinos do not owe a fkng nothing to us: thinking otherwise belongs to one of the many Gambler Fallacies that apply to every living soul but to those who like sailing.

    as.
     
  10. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    We are owed a fair game. So At some point in time, you can expect and will get, at minimum, the expected value of each game providing one has the bankrol to achieve such.

    Hahaha. Some people in the past wondered why the Baccarat game take was 20% in a 1% game! Well, reason is most people didn't lose 20%. They lost 100%. Ha ha ha.
     
  11. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I agree it's uncommon but also inevitable. We tend to remember that many losses in a row. At least I do. Recently i've lost eleven in a row and ten in a row. And yes that's very unusual. I recall losing twelve in a row once in blackjack and and twelve, eleven and ten in a row in Baccarat a few years back. Funny they all came within a short time.

    It's possible and what I don't remember is maybe leaving a game losing 5 or 6? And then starting a new game losing 5 or 6. So that would qualify but I don't remember those.

    But I agree that bet selection does matter.
     
  12. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    @Jimske we were in Cartagena one week and there was a nice little casino downtown we went to a few times. I felt like a high roller because the exchange rate was something like 4300 pesos: $1. The minimum bet was 5,000P so to show off, I was betting 25,000P lol. I kid you not with my wife as my witness, I either pushed or lost 23 consecutive hands. And I’d say at most 5 of those were pushes. Never seen anything like it. Fortunately it was less than $100 but had I been playing $25 hands in the US and lost 18 hands in a row, I would have been sick to my stomach.

    The point is that these long losing streaks happen and more often than you’d think. Unfortunately I’m blackjack you can’t alter your bet selection.
     
  13. Blacktiger

    Blacktiger Active Member

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    Can you use your software for this? upload_2024-2-3_19-30-53.png
     
  14. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    In trading and sports, you average a couple of units each month.
    The main question is to not believe in a quick fix and understand that a game of chance is a marathon race with no ending.

    The money part is easy when you have a positive expectation or a positive return on investment.
    It does not matter if you make 1,2,3 units each game, as you only need to scale up the unit size.

    And casino games and sports trading on the exchanges face the same problem with limits.
    Casino games have table limits and the exchange might not have a current turnaround with money in the specific market to take the bet.

    Cheers
     
    Rond1nell1 likes this.

  15. 5pinn

    5pinn Member

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    1
    1
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    8
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    13
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    34
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    89
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    144
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    .
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    When you make a profit, go back to square one
     
  16. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    Keep on betting win or lose? Suppose you lose

    11 W1 you are down -1. Do you move to 2? This is similar to how I play only I do best of three bets with some other enhancements.
     
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  17. 5pinn

    5pinn Member

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    move down, return to the beginning by +1 unit or more
     
  18. 5pinn

    5pinn Member

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    this is the extended fibonacci sequence
     
  19. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Well i am not sure if you got it right - this is the extended fibo

    1
    1,5
    2
    2,5
    3
    4
    5
    6,5
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    10,5
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    17
    21
    27,5
    34
     
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  20. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Here's a blast from the past twelve years ago from GLC. A modified D'Alembert.

    Do your homework. Pick a difficult registry and compare it against others like the extended fibo above and Chingy.

    I still like the idea of stopping at three losses and wait for a win. You still get burned once in a while with LLLWLLLW but not too often.

     
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