Baccarat Progressions

I don't follow the poker analogy but my opinion is that no matter what we got to start with some specific definable bet selection, trigger, whatever. Your choice to bet flat, pos prog or neg prog. Unless we can win flat significantly more hands than lose we're going to be stuck with a recoup plan. That may not be a rote progression but it will certainly include increasing one's bet if the positive progression fails. That's where the various negative progressins come in.

So unless we can count on a pos calculated EV we're going to be basically guessing and using MM to gain a profit. Guessing is simply subjective decision making.

 

BEFORE sitting down at the table " plan your play and then plat your plan ."






ND

For recreational purposes only . Play at your own risk .

 

"play your plan " corrected typo .

 

im just saying one game is -0.54 and the other is +0.76 and both took a nasty nose dive to minus 20k credits (i believe it was around 60k or 100k hands) that basically comes out to 200hour human hours of gambling, so even if your playing a winning game 200 hours can still yield a loser and a big one at that 5 bankrolls over of 4k, if the edge or wining game is truly siting there for us to capture we need to play and think long term as the simulation showed me, thats got me thinking why Wilson of that book gambling guide to check out the oscars grind did so well with it cause it was more long term system than short term but even then it failed so maybe stretch it out longer? i dont know

 

I consider myself a regular baccarat player since 2004. On average, I play approximately 25 days a month. There is no specific system or method that will make me win all the time. This boils down to Nathan Detroit's statement " Plan your play and then play your plan". This is absolutely true. Think of this, if you want to go somewhere and you don't know where you are going, chances- you are going to get lost. Playing the game of baccarat is the same thing. If you don't know your goal, don't have your plan and play your plan, your chances of losing are high. Been there and done that. BTW, Nathan Detroit has been around for a long time. He knows the games well and he is a nice gentleman, too. He always replies to my advice seeking when I asked him. Thank you, ND!!

Jimske, let me know when you come to Seattle again- if you don't mind. I would love to say hello to you.

There is nothing new if you are a regular baccarat player like me or some of us on the forum here. You must have that self-discipline, patience, and know what to do when losing. My daily bankroll is $500.00. I strive to make $100 a day and I leave the table right away when my $100 is won. I have heard a lot amongst other baccarat players saying- ' making $100 a day is easy', yeah, right? Don't ever assume that making $100 a day is easy. For me, it is not. Some days it is impossible to make $100 a day. If my $500.00 is gone, I am also gone. I will start a new day tomorrow. But if you play with your plan and play conservatively, $500.00 is good enough. All of these baccarat years, I have learned a lot. I have read a lot about baccarat. In fact, I am still learning. I would like to say thank you to those who helped me, especially "Egalite". Why I only bring $500 to the table? Well, I used to bring $15,000 to the table. Guess what? I lost it all. So I learned and learned and learned. In retrospect, I was a stupid player. I bought baccarat systems after systems from $99 to $2500 in believing those snake oil salesman's pitches.

Pay your bills with your winning and spend it on your brands. I bought Cartier watch, Cartier eyeglasses frames, LV boots, Gucci messenger bag, and Aston Coats, etc. No, I am not gloating, my fellow players, I am just letting you know to spend your hard-earned winning on something you like. My priorities are paying my bills, of course.

Dream, plan and execute the plan.

Cheers!!

 

Hello! Thanks for your post. With your daily BR of $500, do you flat bet only? And what bet selection do you employ.

 

Personally I use a negative progression, I ty my best not to let it spiral out of control, if necessary I will gear up my unit base level to recoup if i'm getting nowhere.

Alternatively bet positive, but it my opinion you will have to create artificial streaks and not play the shoe as you see it displayed on the score board. I've played this way, I've tested it for a limited number of shoes, it was fine, but not for me. Personally I don't use nor like parlays.

Even if I'm ahead in the game, if I bet 1 unit, I want to hold on to that 1 unit win, I wont let it ride. Some posters here do use parlays, but they are not for me, for example Soxfan is a fan of Sure-Win, it would turn my stomach to be losing, then for example win a 16~20 units bet then let it ride, sod that, I'm taking those chips off the table, and I'll say that, even though I'm prepared to bet more than 32~40 units using a negative progression. Few hours earlier I bet 60 base units, which came home, so all good.

I guess it comes down to the individual, and yes, flat betting ain't gonna cut it.

 

Hi Terry, that was a great post, I really don't know why you don't post more often.

Anyway nice to see you finally put your thoughts into words. Hopefully it will continue.

(you started playing this game at the same time as me)

 

Hi, there,

In the past, I was a believer in Martingale. Now I am betting $15, $25 depending on how I feel. I usually bet $20.00. If I lost, I bet $30, etc. Sometimes, I bet the sugar money all in. Let's say, after all of the observations on that shoe presentments, I like that hand, I bet $50 and if I win, I am done. If I lose, I would bet $25 next, etc. I do not employ one specific bet selection method. In my humble opinion, there is no specific method or MM that will make me win all the time. So I bet what I see on the shoe presentments, sometimes. I rarely make a bet. I probably bet less than 10 hands a shoe. If I win my goal on the first shoe, even within 4 bets, I quit right there. But if I lose, I still continue to play until I lose my bankroll or win my goal. I see people betting almost every hand and there is nothing wrong with that. I am just not that type of player anymore.

I use more than one bet selections. Like I said, I don't use one specific bet selection strategy. I used Egalite's Anti-binary method for about one month straight. I won. I used VDW, not much success. In summary, there is no specific bet selection that will make me win all the times, at least according to my experiences at the table.

I would create my plan, step 1, step 2 and step 3, 4th, etc. My most important goal is to minimize my losses and leave the table as soon as I get my daily winning goal. Ex: Bet on 2nd line Banker only, bet when you see the runs, chops, etc.

I am sorry, I am being redundant here. As you can see, there is so much to talk about how to play this game. And the sad part is, you don't have one that really works all the time.

My preference is wager a few bets at a time. I don't care if the shoe is producing 20 hands in a row. I am just focusing on my daily winning goal. Why don't I care? If I pay attention to those, then I get greedy. Next time, I would remember my winning on that long run, I go after it, I would lose all because what happened on the previous shoe, is not the same on this shoe. So I just keep in mind on my plan and play my plan.

Finally, my wager amount is small enough that it won't hurt me if that wager amount is lost. One man at the table told me a long time ago, it was probably in 2006, " you can't stick your hands in boiling water because the water is hot" He meant to say that while losing, don't case the loss. Or you will learn it quickly that the hole will keep going deeper, hehe.

Cheers!!

 

Thank you, Mr. King.

I decided to join in because of you.

Thank you for all your help.

Yes, we started playing baccarat the same time but if I am not mistaken, my losses are more than yours, LOL. Those days are over, hehe.
Good luck everyone!

 

Haha, we both have something in common

Well said, you can't possibly have an opinion on every hand

Very good, this is still my primary method today.

Very true, this is were your money management comes in, like you say, don't get in too deep, good shoes will out number the bad shoes, so grind back your draw-downs.

As above, good shoes out number the bad shoes, you need to be able to survive the rough shoes.

How many players fall for that, LOL.

If your goal is $100 per day and you have a $500 bankroll, you have lots of options (I don't know what your table minimum is), If it's $25, then you only have 20 units which is not a lot, you will be playing by the seat of your pants most days. So I would probably use STAR with a Labby on the backend.

If you can bet $10, then you now have a 100 unit bankroll, sure you have to win more chips, but you have gone from a 20/1 ratio to a 100/1 ratio.

Goal $100, write out 4 Labby strings like this.

1-1-1-1-1-1
1-1-1-1-1-1
1-1-1-1-1-1
1-1-1-1-1-1 (the extra 1 is to handle the B tax)

Increment and distribute losses into the strings, attack those strings with the lowest values first.

If you end up something like this;

2-3-3-4-4
2-2-2-2-3

(cleared 2 strings, you're not winning, but you are only 5 units in the hole, from what have been rough shoes, you still have +90 units left, redo the strings into 4. In my example you still need to win 25u so)

2-2-2-2-2
1-1-1-1-1-1
1-1-1-1-1-1 (something like that)

You could play all day doing this, it is safe, until the glory of AB kicks in. You have to control your frustration, be like the Dalai Lama

I'll never forget the words that somebody at LTW had in his signature for years, "the easier way out of a hole is to stop digging".

 

This is incorrect, if you lose the 124 and then lose the 2 units marty bet you are only down 3 unit not 9. The most ya can lose on any sequence is 3 unit, and you win one unit on any lw, and wwlw, and ya capture 7 units profits if ya win the thre g bet 124, hey hey.

 

I could spend an hour hitting like on the majority of posts. The way I think about the progression thing comes down to situational awareness based on your win loss pattern for what you are currently playing. I hope that makes some sense. Today I was done playing in under and hour. Hit 2 negative progressions miss 1 then hit 2, and 1 positive progression hit 1 then hit 2. Both worked today in the given pattern of play. But, both could have failed and I could have been there playing longer. There is no better odds of winning in the casino than a 50-50 bet if you studied poker a little if I remember right pocket aces were like 49 percent chance of taking down the pot. And for Blackjack when you talk advantage player please explain how if there is an ace with 3 tens left who gets the ace me or the dealer. It is not an advantage. How many times have you seen the dealers suck out repeatedly with low cards on 4-6? If and only if the dealer gets in a bust pattern are you in great shape and that can happen no matter what the count is. Truth in baccarat every hand can go the opposite of your bet you hope to capture a pattern as it is happening. If you go deep in ANY progression you will eventually get hit. It doesn't matter what your trigger is the next hand is 50-50.

 

You have to control your frustration, be like the Dalai Lama
The essence of the game Junket King
cheers

 

You'd have a huge advantage! Both the player and dealer will get equal amount of blackjacks. But the player gets 3:2 and the dealer gets 1:1. Also half of those dealer blackjacks will have the ace up where the player will take insurance and be correct 100% of the time.

 

JKsaid: "Well said, you can't possibly have an opinion on every hand."

Of course you can. If you're betselection bets every hand then just follow your betselection. That becomes your opinion. The cards don't know that you're betting every hand in the shoe or betting 10 hands in each shoe. The cumulative win-loss registry is going to be the same and it came with random outcomes. We may as well just draw a line after every x amount of hands and say that's a complete game. Then use our betting and money management in order to achieve a win.

Look, if we adhere to the opinion that all bet selections produce the same win-loss registry then betselection is irrelevant. How many here adhere to that opinion I wonder? Let's take an example. Let's compare simple XY with anti betting Player. Look at the possible losses in a row with either method. With XY we have to be out of sync with 10 chops in a row to lose 10 in a row. With anti Player we need to get 10 or 11 in a row to lose 10 in a row. In my entire career playing thousands of shoes I've only lost 10 or more in a row three times. The most I ever lost was 12 in a row.

Personally I have to come to the conclusion that specific betselection or more efficacious then others and even guessing the signature or bias of the shoe is better then certain betselection. Our goal is to reduce losses in a row. It's my opinion that certain betselection do better than others but all of them will need an element of subjective decision making during the course of play.

 

You are being pandantic
Please occasionally give allowance for my posts on this board, sometimes it is while I'm taking a break from playing online and the serotonin tank is sometimes overflowing, riled, wired and all that. Something that many board owners such as Vic don't comprehend.

Would love to know how your sequence of bets went on those rare occasions.

 

I'm gonna be pandantic here, "7 col Anti-Binary Repeat" produces smaller LIAR than say FLD or DBL. Yet doesn't change the win to loss ratio.

9 Column "Anti-Binary" while unplayable produces way fewer LIAR.

Did you have a dictionary for breakfast?

So you anthropomorphise the game

 

Pendantic not a word. At least my words are real.

 

oops I got nicked by the spelling Police, LOL

I'm gonna blame it on a slip of the keyboard