1. Welcome to the #1 Gambling Community with the best minds across the entire gambling spectrum. REGISTER NOW!
  2. Have a gambling question?

    Post it here and our gambling experts will answer it!
    Dismiss Notice
  3. Discussions in this section are assumed to be EV- as they are outside of the Advantage Play section. For EV+ discussions, please visit the Advantage Play section.
    Dismiss Notice

Craps Proof of Bias Dice - Indian Craps

Discussion in 'Craps Forum' started by Mark V, Mar 11, 2015.

  1. Mark V

    Mark V Active Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2015
    Likes:
    89
    Occupation:
    Gambler, bikini contest judge, and lounge rat
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    OK, I know that some Dice Gurus and groups totally deny that there are Bias Dice out there. I am going to go show you my tracking of one particular North West Indian Casino and talk about how bias dice works and how you could greatly reduce your losses.

    27JgnqW.png

    505 rolls shows that the dice run cool with an SRR of 5.6. The SRR of 6 is what is normal. In the above I added Wincraps rolls for exactly 505 rolls as a comparison.

    Do you notice:
    The six and Nine are abnormally high, also notice that the Craps rolls are way up and out of the norm. This is what I am finding as typical results for Bias Dice.

    How I track Dice. I just use a simple notepad and pen (see below one sheet from my tracking log)

    http://i.imgur.com/CmC9N5p.jpg <- image of my notepad

    The first left column is where I put a + or - as a visual reference if the shooter made the point. A + if they make it and a - if they don't.

    The Second column is the Score. I add one when the shooter makes the point and subtract one when they don't.

    The third column is the rolls. I also may note how many rolls per shooter or how many field its show up.

    With normal fair dice, I would expect the score to bounce around the Zero, climbing up then down bu more or less resting at the Zero. With Bias dice, it is a steady force downwards. In many plays I have seen my score easily go in to the negative teens. Upward trends are short, but downward trends are long.

    One thing you will notice with the sheet above is that there are a LOT of outside rolls. It is not uncommon for a shooter to roll an 11,7,10,11,3,4,7-out I have see such rolls like that over and over with bias dice. Just look above, there are real examples of such rolls.

    You ill also notice that there are a lot of come-out roll wins. This sort of clobbers any thoughts of going heavy on the don'ts. Now I play the don'ts when bias dice are scored, though very conservatively. I will lay odds if the point is 6,8 or 5,9 but not 4 or 10. I also will bet the field if the shooter has two field hits in a row. If the shooter knocks me off, then I just go back on the don't pass. If they have something of a hand developing I may place the six or nine or make a come bet. Sometimes I just take one win and then bring down my place bets. When you are dealing with bias dice you realty cannot leave money on the table long, for it can sit there while the shooter rolls a lot of craps and outside rolls then you get one or two wins then seven-out comes. Often those tiny win on what appeared to be a long hand ended up in a net loss for the better. You have to really take your bets down after one or two wins.

    DI and Bias dice is very challenging. Above you can see me shooting the V-2 with the clunkers of dice that this casino has. Notice that I am hitting my targets, my rolls are short. My last roll went on like this:
    9,2,4,9,10,3,12,6,8,4,7x for a total of 10 rolls. I bet the outsides and then as my rolls hit, I take my bets down. If I hit all of my bets, then I just roll for the point. If I make the point I will then make a come bet and shoot for the come bet. It is very hard to shoot bias dice and most of the time my rolls are short.

    Other players who attempt DI with such dice often throw a lot of "gutter balls" aka craps and I just bet the field when they are up at bat. I have won huge with such shooters.

    Betting with Bias Dice you have to be very conservative and patient. Most of the time I am just waiting for the shooter to seven out, standing there like a fence post. Sure, a hand can seem to be going somewhere and everyone is collecting wins, and I am just standing there. Though soon enough the seven comes and sweeps away all the bets and I get paid. I often hear, "ah, I just got all my bets setup!" or "man, just when it was starting to go somewhere it ends".

    you also have to watch for the Hot Flashes that come with bias dice. Often two passline wins is my trigger to jump on the Do's and place whatever is dominate. That has worked out well over and over where I scored a few hundred just off of one shooter. by dominate I mean what numbers the shooter is repeating the most.

    Pigs get slaughtered. Many of the older guys who are "crapsters" like to put a lot of money up all over the table. I am not sure who taught them craps, or if they just have the habit to play like that cause of how someone taught them. They bet as if the table is hot and the dice are fair. Truth is it is the exact opposite and there is nothing I can say or do that will change how these guys bet. Sure, they hit one of the few hot hands and say, "well I won a few hundred last night", so think that they are doing OK. Yet it is these same guys that run to the ATM machine three or more times a night to restock their chips. So I have to ask, "How much did that couple hundred dollar win really cost you?" ... I am guessing about a grand!

    The dealers know the dice run cool. I was told that by them. The Casino knows the dice run cool, because the dealers told me that too. I asked how then could any of them really offer a game then that is not straight up fair to a lot of guys who are at best living on social security? Answer: Nobody is forcing them to play. So, it is the "Indian answer" then AKA "dumb white man", in that it is up to your to detect if the other player (in this case the casino) is cheating and decide then to continue to play or not. Indian Craps!

    Indian Tricks
    The casinos have multiple sets of dice the put out at what I can guess at the discretion of the pit boss, he eye in the sky, or who ever is monitoring the drop. More than once had I seen the dice changed to a totally different time not only in the same shift but in the same HOUR! If the players are winning to much the swap the dice for the "chillers" and if the table is to bone cold they swap for the warmer dice.

    You have to know how each set of dice they bring out works cause you are betting differently for each set of dice.

    So, does tracking and analyzing this take time? Oh Yeah it does. Lots of time and many trips to the casino in hopes of catching the dice you have a handle on or tracking dice you still need data on.

    Indian Burns
    The only heat right now I am getting is on my tracking. Nothing serious, but lots of odd looks from casino personal and 'Company Man' sort of snickers from the dealers who are brown nosing for a promotion. Even so if they ask me to put a way my note pad, I have come up with other ways to track the dice.

    Yeah Sure....
    I am not really here to convince anyone about Bias Dice. My only reply these day to the critics is: You go play there and tell me how it goes. I have been accused of betting wrong, having dirty hands or untrimmed fingernails as to why my DI does not work, to out right lying and hanging out with the wrong people AKA The ShortDice crew. But here is a surprise... none of the critics play much craps, or played like 20 years ago and still live those days in their heads where as in reality get out very little. Others who claim to be DI experts, well nobody has ever seen them throw dice or nor can anyone validate anything they say. And, there is one so called Dice Guru who teaches but does not play....not sure what that is all about.
     
    Harley likes this.
  2. Harley

    Harley Active Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2015
    Likes:
    76
    Location:
    Area 51
    Mark V ... it is possible the Indian dice from December of last year have a different bias than the March dice -- could be from a different batch or case ? ... the bias still exists, it has just seemed to have flipped

    This can be seen when comparing the sisters from the 2 "batches" - the 6s to 8s ratio and the 4s to 10s have changed bias .... Casinos can and will change biases from time to time -- this is no different than a bank (table) changing it's safe vault code (dice) all the time so that patrons will not be able to take it's $$ so easily

    ... suggest you monitor by serial number and font as well as color of dice .... and a few more frequent grouping of stats by serial number would help identify the bias ... the 2 sets of data from March are definitely consistent with each other -- what are the odds of that happening -- that you know there will be more 6s than 8s and more 4s than 10s !!

    Your Point Wins and Point Losses also confirms that irish and Mad Professor are wrong in thinking that you can become millionaires by playing the Don'ts with biased dice -- they are Percentage Dice and as John Scarne warns us, only those that know the exact bias and can play it for long periods of time will win ... and usually the Casino is the only party in play long enough.
     
  3. Mark V

    Mark V Active Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2015
    Likes:
    89
    Occupation:
    Gambler, bikini contest judge, and lounge rat
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    Harley,
    Yes, I only posted the charting for the Dark Red dice. The casino also uses a translucent murky red dice as well, that run cooler than the dark red ones but not as many craps rolls as the dark red ones. I only posted the one set of dice for my example, though I have tracking for the other dice as well.

    This particular casino does not put out fair dice as far as I know. They alternate between two sets of dice, the dark red ones and the translucent murky red ones. Each type of dice has its own 'signature' and once you get it, well you got the code to the dice. Friday and Saturday nights the dark red dice are always in play.

    It is reasonable to consider that different batches (same type of dice but different serial numbers) will be keyed to different percentages.

    Unbalanced Dice Part 11 Follow Up Video Series : Why Not To Play The Darkside With Bad Dice

    To even have a chance of beating bias dice, you really have to unlearn everything you know about craps. You strategy is different, your toss is different and your betting is different. None of the betting methods published in the books that assume fair dice are on the table will work, and none of the DI schools will even admit that there are bias dice out there, because to do such destroys their school. A DI toss with bias dice often ends up with an amazing amount of craps rolls!!!
     
    Harley likes this.
  4. Mark V

    Mark V Active Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2015
    Likes:
    89
    Occupation:
    Gambler, bikini contest judge, and lounge rat
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    I just want to make update my original post...

    Dice Tracking/charting is NOT ADVANTAGE PLAY. As a player you use this tool to find fair dice and avoid bias dice. If you detect with tracking that the dice are bias, leave the table and go find another table/casino or just find another game to play.

    Trying to play craps with bias dice, Right Way or Wrong Way, is always a losing bet.
     
    Harley likes this.
  5. superrick

    superrick Active Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2015
    Likes:
    63
    Now it doesn't take too many brains to see what is happening with bias dice on the tables without even tracking the tables you are going to be playing on. The sad part is you will still have players buying in on those tables.

    They walk up to a table that has six players on the table, nobody has any chips in their chips racks, there is a don't player doing a re-buy in. There is one right side player doing the same thing. Everybody on the table looks like they just lost their best friend. Everybody is quiet as a church mouse, nobody is laughing. So they stand there just watching the game for a little while more, only to buy-in when one of the right side players has lost his bank roll and does the smart thing and leaves.

    Now that the new player is in the game he does notice one thing, every player on the table is losing even the don't player. Yes the don't player is getting killed just like all of the other players, because he doesn't know how to play the dark side of the game.
    Craps players are a curious bunch of players, they all believe what all the books say, they got how to bet the game off of the dealers or other players. They may have read one book and will only bet the way that book said to bet the game!

    The on axis dice schools will never admit that there is bad dice in the casinos. That would ruin their business model, of dazzling their future students with all of the fiction that is written on their boards.

    With any trip report that is ever written we only hear about the good rolls never the bad ones, that is a fact that I see all of the time. There will be a trip report about a good roll where the shooter may have gotten some of he money that they already lost back. They didn't post about all of the bad rolls they had.
     
    Harley likes this.
  6. Tabletop

    Tabletop Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2015
    Likes:
    45
    Superrick, what you are referring to is what I call a BLATANT Bias! There are also more "Subtle" Biases that you have to chart to know what's going on.
     
    Harley likes this.
  7. Heavy

    Heavy Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2015
    Likes:
    13
    Occupation:
    Internet Craps Guru
    Location:
    Republic of Texas
    Mark, Mark, Mark. I suggest you post these numbers over on the Wizard of Odds forum and see what the math guys over there have to say about them. You know how I feel about this topic, but go ahead and get a third party opinion from someone who understands statistics. Here's what I think they'll say.

    1. Your sample size is too small to be statistically valid.
    2. Even though your sample size is too small, your "point made" versus "point missed" stats - the point missed 68% of the time is not that far out of line. The larger your sample size the closer your results should come to statistical norm. In this case, approximately 66.67% miss out. So really, based on your sample size and the percentages expressed - your numbers fall well within standard deviation.
    3. Your average roll of 7.7 is a little low. But again, increase your sample size and I believe your results will come closer to the statistical average of 8.5 or so.
    4. Your SRR of 5.6 is also not that far off from a statistical non-influenced average of 6.0. Again, sample size.
    5. Remember, even good shooters have streaks of short hands.
    6. Even random rollers have streaks of good hands.
    7. The casino makes it's profit over the long-run combined play of all players - not the short run play of a few.
    9. While I once felt differently regarding dice - I am now of the opinion that color doesn't matter. Why? Because I tracked thousands of rolls with different colored dice and saw no significant difference in results.

    You know, even the 48 hours at the casino roll of books shows a Don't bias. It's just the nature of the game.
     

  8. Mark V

    Mark V Active Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2015
    Likes:
    89
    Occupation:
    Gambler, bikini contest judge, and lounge rat
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    Heavy,
    I appreciate your input on this topic. I know it is controversial, just as DI is controversial too.

    I do appreciate all the work Michael Shackleford has done, and he has been approached with this issue and backed off from it at half the speed of light. He derives his income as a consultant for the casinos, as I understand, and this is an issue that could get him in broiled in a controversy that he wold not want to be part of.

    I also think you should qualify yourself as a Dice Tossing instructor and owner of a Dice School where if the theory of Bias Dice was to have any validation that such an issue would effective harm Dice Influence it not neutralize it, and that would inpact your school finances and ability to operate it.. Just saying...

    Now on to the issue:

    I don't think my size is too small to make a working hypothesis. I am running wincraps as a comparison for the same number of rolls and I expect some deviations from the expected values. However deviations outside of the expected values only raises suspicion that there might be something to the cliam of bias dice. Of course more roll tracking will happen and I will continue to test and retest.

    I think you make the mistake between Dice Color and Dice Translucency. I agree that the dice of the same translucency factor, color won't make a difference. But dice of different translucency will have difference due to the density of the plastic used in its creation. There are other factors to consider in how plastic is modeled, cooled and otherwise engineered that can have profound effects. Also consider the pips themselves, as to the materials, depth, dimensions and placement. Furthermore, I have seen something odd:

    At the Linq, the dice have an black L under the five face pip. You can see it if you set the 2 upright. What is this L? What is it made of? Why is it there?

    The book you cite is very old, and it it is well know that it runs cold. The introduction of bias dice only came with the Great recession, and I am guessing it was more due to the diminished quality of dice that where being made in Mexico when the Las Vegas dice companies pulled up stakes and moved south.

    Now, if this issue ends up being nothing at all, trust me, I will be the first to say it. However, investigations are needed and I am doing what I can. Better yet, why not start your own investigation.

    Mark V
     
  9. Heavy

    Heavy Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2015
    Likes:
    13
    Occupation:
    Internet Craps Guru
    Location:
    Republic of Texas
    Mark. I appreciate your level-headed response. I think ultimately when you get large enough of a sample size you'll find your results as I predicted. Could I be wrong? Sure. I agree that poor quality control COULD result in biased dice being sold to the casinos. The thing I disagree with is the theory that casinos are DELIBERATELY inserting biased dice in the game in order to beat the players.

    IMHO, if anyone has actual evidence of biased dice that is supported by expert statistical evidence then they should go directly to the nearest class action attorney and get on board the money train instead of chatting up the subject on the forums.
     
  10. Harley

    Harley Active Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2015
    Likes:
    76
    Location:
    Area 51
    Heavy - we have met with Michael Shackleford personally and presented him with Caesar's roll data for over 700 rolls - he had no problem with the sample size, but his response was "that the data could not be true" so we challenged him to collect his own data and he has been reluctant to do so.

    We also presented the following data to Wizard of Odds Forum as you suggested and the following analysis and reply was made confirming biased dice:

    Green Valley Ranch using unbalanced dice ...

    Green Valley Ranch Casino near Las Vegas seems to be using unbalanced dice based upon roll data collected there in July, 2013:

    467 Rolls broken down as follows:

    2's = 15
    3's = 33
    4's = 55
    5's = 44
    6's = 60
    8's = 67
    9's = 33
    10's = 41
    11's = 24
    12's = 22

    The 7's broke down like this:
    6/1 = 40
    5/2 = 20
    4/3 = 13

    According to dwheatley as posted on Wizard of Vegas website ...
    wizardofvegas.com/
     
  11. Heavy

    Heavy Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2015
    Likes:
    13
    Occupation:
    Internet Craps Guru
    Location:
    Republic of Texas
    I have long said that it was possible for biased dice to get into play - just highly unlikely. And again, I do not believe any casino would knowingly do so in an effort to beat the players. The game is so strong that they don't have to.

    Regarding sample size - the more the numbers vary from statistical norm - the smaller the sample required. At least that's what another well known math guy told me a few years back. I tend to fall on the other side of that fence. I think the more the numbers vary from statistical norm - the greater the onus on those making the claim to prove their theory over a significant book of numbers.

    Then, of course, we get into the whole "who tracked the numbers" question. I know how it feels to be on the receiving end of this. Back in the day (late 90's) when I first started posting on some of the "math guy" forums I got heat for talking about having an SRR up around 7. Statistically impossible, they shouted. Yet I had the documentation to back it up. Then they said any tracking had to be done by an independent third party to be valid because they thought I was just making things up. THAT is the same issue those of you in the biased dice camp are having to deal with. It is what it is. Alas, if you take a couple of guys into the casino and stand around the table and track rolls for hours on end that is probably not going to be something the casino wants either. Not because they're afraid of what you'll find - but because of the image it presents to other customers.

    Again, if you guys can document this and get proof that the casinos are deliberately trying to beat you with crooked dice then you have a hell of a class action suit you could profit from. I just don't think it's going to happen.
     
  12. Mark V

    Mark V Active Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2015
    Likes:
    89
    Occupation:
    Gambler, bikini contest judge, and lounge rat
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    Heavy
    The litigious route is very costly, and that is not the road I am going down. My own aims has been and always will be to determine:

    DO I HAVE AN EDGE?

    That is all it is about. If there is no edge to gain on a game at the casino, then I might as well just take up fly fishing or something else far less expensive, because that is what casino gambling will end up being, a very expensive hobby.

    No edge = no profit, and if you just try to rely on lady luck alone, well we know that it is not enough these days.

    It may be that Once Upon a Time you could gain the edge with DI. Do those days still exist? Can it still be done? I don't know. I know that my own adventures have shown me that the casinos are tough and they see you coming from a mile away. I think that they have got a fix for every Advantage play method for every game, and with all the changes and modifications to the game I have to ask: Do I have an edge?

    If I conclude that there is no edge to be gained with Craps, then I am done rolling the dice. If I am convinced that the games are rigged to be unfair, the most I will do is communicate that awareness to the players so that they can decide for themselves if they wish to play or not.

    That is the extent of my interest in this issue.

    Mark V
     
  13. Harley

    Harley Active Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2015
    Likes:
    76
    Location:
    Area 51
    Heavy - they don't have to but as you know, most Casinos are greedy corporations ... if they made 15% profit last year, Wall Street puts pressure on them to make a bigger profit this year and even more the next or they are considered a stale non-growth company ...

    Not sure you have seen this thread, but there is overwhelming evidence presented here where the casinos are inserting dice with a certain bias for a very specific reason:

    http://www.gamblingforums.com/threads/new-bonus-crap-bet-“repeater-bet”.851/
     
  14. Harley

    Harley Active Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2015
    Likes:
    76
    Location:
    Area 51
    Heavy - American casinos have always been trying to increase the House Advantage on every square foot in the casino, from slot machines to every table game.

    Why wouldn't casinos want to increase the House Advantage on Craps like they have with Black Jack ... with unbalanced dice or Percentage dice as John Scarne calls them, casinos are simply changing the odds in the same fashion as 6:5 Black Jack --- Giving the house a more favorable edge. As noted somewhere on the internet,
    YET, people still play 6:5 BJ in Las Vegas -- the change had very little measurable effect on the attendance at the BJ tables and no casinos were threatened with losing their license.

    Consider Roulette – First was European Roulette with a single zero, then came the American casinos pushing their greed on the game by adding a 2nd zero.

    In roulette, the traditional method of adjusting the house edge is by varying the number of zeroes on the wheel. With a single zero, the house edge is 2.7 percent, but with both zero and double-zero, that House Advantage doubles and soars to 5.26 percent on all wagers.

    Then Roulette Slots takes a page out of the video poker book and adjusts the pay table. An operator can choose to put a game on the floor that pays 32-for-1 on single-number bets, instead of the usual 35-to-1. Recently we have seen Roulette become popular on the slot machines. The house edge is 13.51 percent on the Roulette Slots.

    That's an enormous leap in the house edge by roulette standards, and if a table game with its higher minimum bets offered that pay table, you'd be wise to walk away.

    As one dealer noted, Blackjack and most any card game has auto shufflers/ continuous shufflers and some backs of the playing cards are imbedded with bar codes so the auto shufflers place the cards in such a way that the count never goes more than +/- 6 without swinging the other way. Slots, there is no such thing as a "random number generator". A nice way of saying your outcome has already been predetermined.

    Still many players believe that the casinos will increase the house advantage on every game in the casino except Craps. Why would Casino Management single out craps and not increase the House Advantage there ...
     

  15. zengrifter

    zengrifter Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2015
    Likes:
    22
    Occupation:
    Serial Entrepreneur
    Location:
    San Clemente, CA
    Finally, an intelligent voice in the wilderness! LOL
     
  16. Harley

    Harley Active Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2015
    Likes:
    76
    Location:
    Area 51
    Sample size is overrated especially since biasness can be observed in as little as 30 rolls according to a "well-known "Pearson's chi-square" hypothesis testing procedure."

    http://deltasdnd.blogspot.com/2009/02/testing-balanced-die.html
     
    Linaway and Mark V like this.
  17. Heavy

    Heavy Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2015
    Likes:
    13
    Occupation:
    Internet Craps Guru
    Location:
    Republic of Texas
    Well, I just put in a 12 hour day running the roads in the midwest and really don't have time - or interest - in arguing every point brought up or getting into another pissing contest with anyone. However, there are a couple of things I feel I really should respond to - simply because some players may not realize what you've done here. So, without further ado . . .


    All corporations are, by nature, greedy. The stockholders always want to see more profit, increasing stock prices, etc. But that does not mean the majority of corporations - Apple - P&G - AT&T - or Boyd Gaming - deliberately break the law in order to turn a bigger profit. Do some of them cut corners and get in trouble for it? Absolutely. But I don't think there are a lot of CEO's out there willing to go to jail just to add a few bucks to the bottom line when they can do like Gary Loverman, bankrupt the company and still walk with a huge paycheck. In short, you are implying that all casinos cheat. I disagree. I don't think they have to because most players are unable to win over the long run - and the casinos have them out-manned and out-bankrolled.


    The casinos have improved their HA on every square foot by removing craps tables that take-up significant space - and required large crews to operate - and replacing them with slot machines. As for increasing the house edge on craps - they do this all the time through multiple angles. They implement the "for 1" rule in place of the "to 1" rule on props - making the worst bets on the layout even worse. Caesar's Entertainment casinos are, again, a fine example of this. They also add carnival game elements to the layout - Fire Bet, Bonus Bet, All Tall Small, etc. They even created Crapless as another higher vig option. Changing the game rules, as the casino did with 6:5 blackjack, is not cheating. It's just offering a game that tourists who don't know better belly up to and play.

    Once again, nothing illegal on any of the above. Should the "gambler beware?" Sure. Will he? No. Why? It is too much trouble for them to educate them selves on the games. They're there for the drinks - short and simple. Now, if you told me that the casinos were shaving the fins on the roulette wheel so they could steer the ball to the 0 or 00 at a higher percentage than usual mechanically - yeah, that's a problem. If they had a magnet in the 0 and 00 trays that attracted the ball - yeah, that's a problem. But other than the odds on the various payouts above - you're still talking about a "fair" game. YOU may not feel it's fair, but it is what it is.

    No self-respecting card counter would play a game utilizing a CSM. The bar codes is an interesting angle, but if you have the sense not to play these games - which you should - then it really doesn't matter.

    The problem I have with most of your arguments is that you're mixing apples and oranges. Rule changes versus cheating. I agree that casinos stack the odds in their favor via rule changes. I don't believe they have to cheat to beat the players, though. The math does that for them.
     
  18. superrick

    superrick Active Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Feb 1, 2015
    Likes:
    63
    It seems that Heavy has changed his business plan, now there could be (BAD DICE) in play, but of course from what he is saying the casinos would never put them in play intentionally. Now the argument to this is that they would lose their license. Here is my rebuttal - The states where they have casinos generate a lot of tax money. They are not going to cut off their their nose and shut down any casino for using bad out of balance dice.

    When we are talking about bad dice you have to remember that those dice will not come up with the same numbers every time some one throws them. But the percentage of the out-comes change.

    Now I hate to even write about loaded dice because players get the impression that is what we are writing about when we say bad dice. That is not the case! Even with loaded dice they would not come up on a seven every time they were thrown and those dice were designed to accomplish that.

    The on axis craps board have done nothing but attack anybody that has even mentioned bad dice, they have ran off a lot of very good posters on their boards! That were just trying to find out about what was happening in the casinos they are playing in all around the country. Now days they are seeing things that just don't make sense. There are way too many craps numbers, the dice pyramid is not like it should be.

    All anybody has to do is look at what the casinos are now up against, they have to find ways to generate profits for the corporations that run them anyway that they can. These corporations expect to see a certain profit every year. They are doing everything in their own powers to stop that from happening. They have over built the casino industry here in the states. With every casino they build in different states they are taking away players for their existing casinos. So they have to come up with ways to generate more income off less players!

    Now days we find slot machines that pay out more small hits on the machines, but you seldom see a jackpot hitting. The players just keep feeding the slot machines every coin they won, hoping to hit that jackpot. The casinos ruined the game of blackjack, they keep putting in what I would call nothing but carnival games to take their player's money.

    All you have to do is look at what happened in AC when they opened up casinos in Pennsylvania. AC's market dried up, why drive for hours when you have a casino in your backyard? How are the casinos in AC going to make up for the loss of players that they now have - which machines are they going to tighten up. What table games are they going to change the rules on to give the casinos a bigger advantage?

    We have never changed how we run the board that I help run, there is still a link up to Heavy's board there. The one thing that I tell everybody is that you make up your own mind, as to where you will find better information and not a bunch of fiction. When you are thinking about taking a class do you want to take it from someone that allows nothing but fiction to sell what they are doing, or take a class where you find nothing but good information, without the fiction.

    There are simply way too many guys now saying the same thing, they are all seeing things that shouldn't be happening on the craps tables. Do you listen to your members, or do you take the approach the Heavy has been taking, and kick them all off your board?

    I can find examples of corporations, politicians, law enforcement, judges, lawyers, doctors, stockbrokers, bankers and any other occupation, cheating every day in the news papers around the country. But Heavy and company will tell everybody that a casino wouldn't try to boost their bottom line!
     
    Harley likes this.
  19. Heavy

    Heavy Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2015
    Likes:
    13
    Occupation:
    Internet Craps Guru
    Location:
    Republic of Texas
    Again, I don't have time for this so this will be my last comment on this thread. First off, allow me to say "thanks" to all for maintaining an air of civility.

    Now, don't go saying I've had a "change of business plan," Rick. I have said for years that is it conceivable that dice manufactured in factories where quality control isn't what it should be - and we're talking GPI's dice built in Mexico - could have a bias. You may as well go ahead and note that IMHO if this WERE the case then it's unlikely that all five dice in the stick have a problem. In the past I've posted on my site the odds of picking a pair out of the bowl with one bad die, two bad dice, or two good dice. Suffice to say, on an average 8 hour shift with a high 90 decisions an hour you're only looking at 540 decisions - a large percentage of which would be on track statistically - EVEN THOUGH I consider 540 rolls insufficient to do a valid analysis. But we've talked about that already. Bottom line - sure, biased dice could happen. But again, despite the pressure for making a profit, the casino is not going to risk it's license - which is in essence a license to print money - in order to deliberately insert crooked dice into the game.

    We do, indeed, crack wise about those who believe that they are losers because the casinos are cheating them. It's never the fact that they have a crappy toss. It's never the fact that they don't have a clue how to bet. It's never the fact that they have no concept of money management or discipline. It's never THEIR fault. It's those damned casinos and their crooked dice. Seriously? Yep. Seriously. Do we "attack" the bad dice folks? I tend to believe we respond in kind to the posts on the board you run, Rick. I'm sorry if this offends you, but ever since I started posting actively on the internet way back when I've taken a simple approach. Hit me and I hit back. It is what it is.

    As for us losing members, the other day Harley posted some figures from one of the "snoop" websites that purported to show reader participation on my forum versus this one and the one you run. I don't know how these folks come up with their numbers, but (of course) in his post both of these sites beat mine. It prompted me to log onto my host server and check the actual visitor count, click count, et al of the APC forum. I did not cut and paste the results into a post on that thread because I had already said I was through posting on it, but the numbers that were posted on this forum for my forum's performance were significantly "lighter" than actual. I'm on the road tonight and don't have access to the graphic I copied to my desktop at home, but I can share the numbers with you when I get back to Texas. Just a simple number to think about, though. The APC forum garnered over 20 million clicks in 2014. Unique visitors typically range from 11,000 to 15,000 a month, depending on the time of year.

    You are, of course, referring primarily to some posts by MP made years ago. To a great extent those posts have been taken out of context. The one you mention most often involves a claim of an SRR of . . . what was is . . . 28? Look, I tossed back-to-back 60 plus roll hands at Binions a couple of years back. I believe it was a 66 and a 62. In that hand I tossed two sevens. So 128 divided by 2 gets me an SRR of 64. For that particular book of rolls. Now, further up this thread Harley has already stated that a small book of rolls is sufficient to prove there is bias (or in this case, influence) effecting the dice. Do I have an SRR of 64? Not for the long run. In fact, I agree with Irishsetter that the LONGER you track rolls the closer your results will get to statistical average - 6.0. But you don't need an SRR of 64, or 28, or 14, or even 7 o r 8 - to beat the dice. You just need the smallest of edges and an understanding of how to bet and manage your money.

    Mad Professor's Crapshooting Bible was, by the way, published by Pi Yee Press and edited by Stanford Wong. Wong is no slouch when it comes to crunching the math. And, for what it's worth, MP reportedly donated his profits from the book to his wife's favorite charity. I know that I have personally made donations to her charity on his behalf after using some of his material in some of my seminar manuals (with his permission).

    As for me banning a bunch of people from my forum - over the course of the last 13 years or so of running various forums I have banned fewer than twenty "real" players. Yeah, I've deleted a bunch of Russian, Chinese, German, Polish, North Korean, etc. dictionary hackers and e-mail harvesters through the years. But that's all part of running a forum. Happy happy happy.

    Mark, who started this thread, is still a member of my forum and still posts there - even though he and I disagree on the biased dice topic. We can agree to disagree without being disagreeable. Not all of us seem to be able to do that.
     
  20. zengrifter

    zengrifter Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2015
    Likes:
    22
    Occupation:
    Serial Entrepreneur
    Location:
    San Clemente, CA
    That is a terrible analogy.
    In the case of BJ 6/5 the house simply changed the rules and some customers opted nonetheless to play. Further, the rule being fully disclosed, intelligent customers can easily located the exact house EV based on an optimized pattern of play. Conversely, for the casino to surreptitiously introduce biased dice would constitute an organized criminal conspiracy. A fundamentally different tactic, altogether.
     
    Heavy likes this.

Share This Page