Sports Betting Redietz, sports handicapper

Thanks for posting. Cheers

 

That's a problem I have with the draft. The expect these 21 year old kids to come in and magically turn around a struggling franchise.

I'd like to see them reverse the draft order and give these kids a chance to develop.

 

My pleasure.

 

It does call a sink or swim situation I agree, but I read a couple of teams are nurturing the new draftees where possibly . But some are just cannon fodder and can be replaced next season etc draw. Cheers

 

PuckCity: Since you're a Green Bay Packer. Bart Starr was good. But look at the team he had around him.
Bret Favre was overlooked in the draft and released by the Falcons after one year.

Aaron Rodgers is great but he had plenty of time to develop.

Some kid from BYU or Duke can't come in and turn a team around. So he gets his shit handed to him and never has a chance.

 

A funny story. I think you mentioned you were a Rugby player.

A friend that sits at our table was a college running back. After he graduated he took up Rugby. About 8 minutes in, he said "I need to come out and catch my breath."
They said "you don't come out. It's two 40 minute Halves and we don't stop."

 

I believe USA is in good running to host the rugby World Cup in a few years, worthy of buying a ticket if that’s the case. The USA team is definitely not the worst team and deserve the support. I have been to a number of functions for both USA men’s and women’s rugby and sevens rugby teams here in skipptophia , great and wonderful athletes each with a wonderful story. Here we play league, rugby and soccer plus afl at a young age, then we basically choose our “game” at late teens. The point being there is a logical common denomination between the codes. Your athletes ( majority of rugby players) are not coming from that familiarity but from polar opposites . Truly raw talent.
Now the sevens rugby is back on if possible check a live game in USA, next year, your friend could play as its only 7minutes a half. Lol.
Check the weather forecast for Sydney 4,th,5th of January 2022 if rain, and you can bet on cricket in USA take the draw Sydney test skipptophia vs English. High % as that’s the usual result or home team to win. Cheers

 

Thanks for the info PC.

Since you asked. I can speak to a couple today's NBA games to show how I evaluate games.
Utah is 23-9 10-3 away. SAN Antonio is 14-18 7-9 at home. Utah is clearly the better team. But I don't see value in giving 6.5 points or -275 money line.
If line drops to -3.5? I'm all over it.

Chicago is 20-10 9-6 away. Atlanta is 15-17 8-8 at home. The difference in Chicago's away and Atlanta's home records is only 1.5 games. Too close to call.

Chicago was -6.5 vs indy yesterday. They are 10-4 at home while Indy is 3-11 on the road. The line dropped to -4 shortly before game time. At -3.5 I'd be kicking myself for not digging my way out. We got a ton of drifting snow. So that is today's chore.

 

Thanks good post.
Re another post of yours previously this thread, Covid impact. Yes has upset a few lines of approach, but in saying that will be interesting to see if it reverts to normalish after Covid or it scrambles the go to database we all built over the years to “pic” our selections.
I’m not speaking of arbitration/ hedging of price protection but the actual filtration method/ system we the individual uses.
Your example home vs away selection criteria. Do you in years to come ( hypothetically speaking of course, it’s just talk Diet Coke no ize, just talk) factor in the effect of Covid say for years 2019 to 2023? Then allow for the trickle down of the Covid impact say for a couple of years. The younger players coming through would also have been impacted ( loss of actual game time/ experience/ skill limits etc) so the selection criteria we use may need to be handicapped in some way to make it a “readable database” to aid our selection/ bets on team sports.

I do see the impact already on tennis, tournament and player. Yes it’s an individual sport but as a reference example in this particular post.

Or

Do we consider the new historical data/result of games played in the last 2 years as an immediate example, purely as win lose ratios? Irrespective of any mitigating circumstances ( Covid, mlb strike etc) I of course am liking this to how I view historical data on a stock chart. If I say view a ten year duration chart , I may actually not know the reason that the chart took a downward trend but I can see that for say 3 years it bottom out then recovered . So that particular stock( sports genera ) maybe sidelined until it starts to preform in a manner I’m used to favour , ie shorting or long trades.
A few here in skipptophia also have commented to me this last year the impact of Covid on their selection especially with the English premiere league ( that’s soccer, coke no ize, I’m not limited to nfl only as are many people worldwide) horror year has been the most common complaint.

I do practice “when in doubt, stay out” and don’t need to place a wager because I have to “ earn an income” or I have a degen addiction.
Cheers

 

Punk City writes: Your example home vs away selection criteria. Do you in years to come ( hypothetically speaking of course, it’s just talk Diet Coke no ize, just talk) factor in the effect of Covid say for years 2019 to 2023?

Tater says: I stopped betting once covid hit and didn't start again until last summer. Therefore, I didn't record any data. Personally, I rendered it useless. There were so many variables and "never before's". I struggled in MLB. My first losing season in a long time. Covid was a part of it. But also the rule changes could've been a factor. Or it was just a bad season.

Conversely, the NFL was my first undefeated season. I don't see anymore value picks forthcoming.

PunkCity writes: I do practice “when in doubt, stay out” and don’t need to place a wagerbecause I have to “ earn an income” or I have a degen addiction.

Tater says: Great great analogy. Always like to add something new to my book of sayings.
Notice yesterday would've been a split but both games finished very close to the spread. Sometimes it comes down to when you place your bet. Not me, I have my criteria which is strict. Then just wait for a game to come to me. Still have to watch the lines like a hawk.

 

Good post Tater, the line
“I just wait for the game to come to me”

That’s the true money ball right there. Most don’t get that . What is there 400+ games of baseball (in USA ) per season? 1 or 2 games a week/month are just low hanging fruit. The perfect harvest.

Cricket test matches are a 5 day event ( scheduled) the ashes series in skipptophia occurs every 2years for a 5 test ( game) for 4-5 days per game spread over 60 odd days across 5 different state venues . Ripe low hanging fruit in the right hands. This 5 day event allows for multiple bet to be made before and during the game. The next test is 05/01/2022 in sydneyville already the markets are moving to reflect the venue, not so much the team or the fact England cannot win the series now. Two price screen shots from yesterday as an example. As posted previously Sydney was my draw pick win bet. Here are the screens.

Lunch time Tuesday.


9:30 this morning, Wednesday. So I’m grabbing some harvest as we led into the test. I would say come the 05/01/2022 game day the draw will become $2:50 and under. Skipptophia will be $1:80-$1:97 ish .
In my opinion this game has come to me, as per your statement. I don’t need to bet on all the other test matches that are being currently played ( as we speak ) around the world. This one game next month is that game. Once every 2 years lol. If it loses and it could do , no big problem, I’m still in profit this series so far , and will follow the same criteria in 2 years time. When the game will once again be presented, if it fits the criteria again we bet , if it doesn’t then we wait another 2 more years for the game to potentially come to me.

Yes coke no ize I’m an idiot degen gambler lol clueless I believe was your statement, hopefully this backs up your “expertise” on all things gambling.
Cheers I hope you don’t mind the post. I will post a screenshot daily ish to show market fluctuations if ok with you , otherwise I will not post it. Cheers.

 

My 84 year young friend Lou will be very interested in this. Can't wait to show him tomorrow. He was trying to get me to watch some Cricket with him the other day.

He's an awnry old shit, full of piss and vinegar. During covid when casinos were closed we'd go on walks. He kicked my ass.

 

Lol sounds like your friend a heap of fun.

To clarify what a draw is in cricket
Usually if both teams are locked on the EXACT same total runs each at the conclusion of the test allocated time or all batsmen are out, and the total score is exactly the same. There is no overtime, no count back etc. That is extremely extremely RARE. It’s happened like 2 or 3 times worldwide, I’m talking country vs country test matches, in the last millions of years.

The other draw that most common is the weather stops play after a few overs have been bowled ( qualifying the start of the match , if no overs are bowled at all then the match has had no start because of rain and will be called an abandoned game of no win , draw or loss being recorded for the series) that draw is very common. The most common draw available is one side is unable to remove the last batting’s team players out completely.
So many games over the years end in the draw result from either weather or the last batting team is able to last to “full time” but not equal the opposite teams score etc.

This is what is attractive of the Sydney test. The weather only has to wash /stop play for a day or a morning session or two and most likely a draw ensued. Any odds above $2:00 for the draw is a viable bet in Sydney skipptophia

The key to watching cricket is it’s a group of people ( friends, family, work mates) gathering to drink , talk ,sleep( in the old days late 1980s lol some grounds had a grassy hill instead of seating and you could bring your own beer, food etc and after so much food and drink in the hot sun you pass out ( sleep) on the grassy hill. ) when something exciting happens you wake up and start drinking again . The cricket is basically happening in the background as most people cannot have 100% focus on paint drying ( the cricket being played) for 6 straight hours. Don’t try , it’s an art that maybe 1% of the spectators can achieve. I’m a cricket tragic and I can only manage 70-80% total focus for the 6 hrs.

So watch the cricket with your friend (the next test is playing Nevada time from about 2:30 pm your time , gentlemen’s hours, lol) ask the questions you need to ask over a period of time or as events unfold. But you go about your normal business, I assume your at sports bar , continue betting or drinking or both,checking your phone, reading the paper etc , continue your normal lifestyle conversations with your friend but while the cricket is on the screen. It’s a enjoyable experience it’s not a 2 hour nfl game where no one can talk or disturb the game, cricket is 6 hour day minimum.

Now listening to test cricket on a radio is a totally different beast and requires a different guideline to watching at the ground or on tv. You probably won’t need the heads up on that.
Enjoy as I’m sure your friend will enjoy the fact you have taken time to watch a game with him. You legendary status will grow to Demi God status soon enough. Nice.
Cheers

 

This morning 11:30 am.
Skipptophia is see sawing up and draw is coming down. The right bet sizing gives you a very outside chance on England at $7:10.
This test ( Sydney test 4. ) betting has become an absolute no lose situation. Should become even more lucrative as the actual day draws near. This bet can/ will become an anchor bet in a future combination (2leg parlay) over the next few days that can be linked to any STANDOUT event worldwide . It really depends on how cute one wants to be. But I do way up time and effort involved vs return on outlays and rarely chase that style of betting anymore unless of course there is a combination that just stands out like dogs balls and really is easy money. Lol.
Side note
On rare occasions the outsider in the series/ test that play in Sydney does actually get up and win. If that’s the case the 5 th and final test is definitely a win for series leader and at the most a draw.
So here the small bet on English can become the capital for the 5th and last test scenario described. Cheers

 

PunkCity writes: of course there is a combination that just stands out like dogs balls

Tater says: Hilarious. I'm going to see if we can bet here. Let me know how it goes.

 

Here is today 12:45 pm , as per schedule the market is reacting as usual, as posted previously I got in at $4:60 draw plus skipptophia at $1:41, I’m topping up on skipptophia today at $1:81 , I’m watching my spend , as I want a profit and not the adrenaline rush of the bet process.
Previously posted this thread skipptophia ( Wednesday forum times) to be $1:80-$1:90. Is on schedule at $1:87 now.

I will look to link a nfl game in a parlay money line only, possibly packers if they are in the $1:50-$1:70 range. If not no parlay, the test start on the 5th of January can still link before then.

I guess as this is posted tomorrow in context to your time stamp in USA , coke no ize could actually say I’m posting information after the fact lol , rlmao . Just think how many people he has given disinformation to regarding sports betting yet he claims to “want to help” the gullible from betting on baccarat, roulette etc. continue posting your crap , coke.

I don’t bother with other forum so I really don’t know what you post coke no ize , but on this forum you seem to only post winner bets. No lead up, no game plan walk through, no method. And then you claim everyone on the planet just don’t know what they are talking about.
Go back to ridiculous 6th place fantasyland betting. If you make a living from what you do , seems to me to be arbitrary betting ( mho ) then good on you , to me the time and effort involved for such slim margins is not worth my while. That is my opinion as to why I don’t do it anymore, I have enough grace that if someone else practices that way , no problem.
I do get it that many people worldwide practice that way of sports betting. I don’t condemn them, that’s their thing. As it’s probably your thing coke no ize. I have realised long ago there is no ONE and ONLY way of doing things and I don’t pigeonhole myself as you seem to do with anyone else’s method of sports betting.

I’m interested in my bank account and how I get there. I’m not interested in competitions to prove to myself or “my peers” read circle jerk group that I’m winning. If that’s your motivation then that’s fine also. But for the love of baby Jesus realise you are far from being the one and only expert on sports betting. With that I will address you as poster Dietz from here on as you no longer rate as anything.

What I have been posting this thread can be used as a guideline method across any number of sports applications. These are dog balls betting opportunities that every sport code on the planet will display on regular occasions. You just have to be aware, think out the box etc.
Speaking of box some boxing matches are pure lay down mazier and exceptionally valuable. As an example.


Happy new year all
(you included poster dietz. )

If there is a huge swing in market I will post tomorrow. , hangover permitting. Lol. Cheers

 

You do realize that anyone betting parlays without having them open in perpetuity is making a fundamental math error?

 

You realise that function is not available here in skipptophia? Do know how to make do with the facilities one has at ones disposal? Would you be able to have a positive sports account using limited sports betting agency available to you? We don’t have the facilities available to a population of 360 million people market space. Would you be able to do what you claim using 3 , 2 or just 1 sports betting company?
Your pretty clueless poster dietz. You don’t have the facts, the math error for being hit by a bus crossing the road ( on one’s way to work to earn a living as an example) is high also. Plenty seem to negotiate a street crossing worldwide and live.
No you have nothing, but congratulations on being able to survive in your country, because you would not survive any where else if you didn’t have access to USA market sports betting facilities.

Give it up. You are not the only one that’s able to succeed in sports betting. I mean 6th place is not first , or does that not count now?

 

Packers-7 vs Vikings isn't a bad bet. I wouldn't kick it out of bed for eatin crackers. My question is how hard will they play to secure home field advantage throughout the playoff and first round bye.

One might be able to get -6.5. I have a feeling it might drop.

 

For a parlay? Maybe consider Milwaukee Bucks moneyline over NO Pelicans. And Nashville Predators over Chicago Blackhawks moneyline.
To go with your Packers. These are both Saturday games.

Don't bet the entire Rugby field on it.