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Sports Betting Redietz, sports handicapper

Discussion in 'Sports Betting Forum | Sportsbook Forum' started by Tater, Nov 5, 2021.

  1. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    Has covid affected when you place bets on games?

    This week was interesting. Packers opened at +2.5 before MNF. Then dropped to pick em. Now +7with Aaron Rodgers out do to covid.

    I used to bet when a line hit my criteria. Sometimes even Sunday on the over night line. Now I wait until Friday.
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2021
  2. redietz

    redietz Well-Known Member

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    I have always shopped 'til I drop. Football wagering is a 24/7 seven-day-a-week endeavor. I'm going to link a VCT thread where I discuss a couple of weeks ago. Anybody who isn't betting 24/7 every day and evaluating line moves every hour is going to struggle.

    https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/showthread.php?6747-Strange-Week-Continued
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Nov 6, 2021
  3. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    Good stuff. Thanks for link and info. I didn't realize App St was so close to you.
     
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2021
  4. redietz

    redietz Well-Known Member

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    This is one reason I lambaste people playing parlays. Unless you have parlays where you can bet one team and keep the second leg open in perpetuity, you are screwing yourself because you are not getting optimal numbers. About a third of college football sides move a point and a half or more any given week. College hoops sides and totals routinely move two points or more in a day. With Covid, the NBA numbers have moved tremendously the last two seasons.
     
  5. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    I can't recall ever betting a parlay. My friend took the money line on the Colts, Heat, and Sun's to double his money.

    He says "but I don't make enough money on straight bets. Plus it makes the games more fun to watch."

    The Heat were already down 18 at the half. I ask, how much he will "win"? Um, lose $20.
    Are we having fun yet? :wacky:
     
    Last edited: Nov 6, 2021
  6. redietz

    redietz Well-Known Member

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    Many games highlight how important shopping is. Cal announced Covid almost made them forfeit the game with Arizona, who they have beaten 20 times in a row. Cal keeps a lid on who is out and how many are out. So I bet Arizona +12 and bet more on +10 and bet the money line. Now I'll come back the other way at 2:30 and see what happens. Game is at 3 PM eastern.
     
  7. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    I bet Green Bay 7+. Also, Arizona 50% 3+ and 50% money line.

    Road teams at least 2 games better, getting at least 3 points vs opponent under .600 is 18-4-1 since 2011.

    2-0 with Cowboys and Titans last week going 50% ML and 50% money line.
     

  8. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    Well done.
     
  9. AxelWolf

    AxelWolf Well-Known Member

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    When betting value parlays you don't need to jump on your bets right when the lines come out, you should wait until the morning of before you make your selections to be sure you are still getting a good deal(still off) on the card. The technique is a valid proven formula that works.
     
  10. redietz

    redietz Well-Known Member

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    Axel, I guess you didn't read this discussion and recommendation at VCT, where I went into some detail. Axel, we were talking about parlays here, not parlay cards. You're going to confuse some people.

    Axel here is talking about parlay CARDS, not parlays off the board, which are two entirely different things. As discussed at VCT, there is a 40-year-old parlay CARD strategy that has worked previously, but is often restricted by limits or banning these days, although you can still pull it off for smaller amounts.

    Axel is probably referring to different things here in that one can bet college or NFL on the CARDS. The parlay CARD strategy that previously worked in the NFL, looking for three and sevens advantages and using cards where ties win, rather than lose, really no longer works.

    The parlay CARD strategy that still works would optimally entail taking college games on the card where you have significant differences between those numbers and numbers on the board and staggering those games in time so you have hedging opportunities. This has been done for 40 years and, as I describe in my VCT posts. This strategy was attempted and successfully executed on a large scale by cartels, usually going after the old Boyd properties, including the Stardust, 40 years ago.

    Parlay CARD strategy is an entirely different thing than betting parlays off the board. Unless you can open parlays in perpetuity, if you bet parlays off the board, you are using non-optimal numbers.

    If anyone is confused by this, I can lay it out for you tomorrow or will lay it out at VCT again and link it here.
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2021
  11. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    RE Dietz writes:
    Meanwhile, I posted three weeks ago at VCT that I have Cincinnati to win the college football title at 150-1. What was the VCT response, if any? Seventy-seven views and zero responses.

    Tater writes: If all favorites win, Cincy is in. You have to be in it - to win it.

    They will have done everything possible. Win division, won conference championship, won all their games. That deserves a shot at the title.

    Houston is 16th with 1 loss. That has to be a quality win.

    If Alabama beats Georgia, Cincy may need Oklahoma St to beat Baylor or Iowa to beat Michigan to get in.

    Moving to the Big 12 solves the problem, for the most part, in future years. The Big 5 get bigger and the other conferences get more diluted.

    The Big 12 will certainly be one of the top basketball conference with the additions.
     
    Last edited: Dec 1, 2021
  12. redietz

    redietz Well-Known Member

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    Mission accomplished. I'll take down a nice profit, whatever the moneyline I need to hedge. I won't ask Cincinnati to win another game; I'll just take the profit and run. At 150-1, there's a lot of leeway.

    Still no comments from the peanut gallery.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2021
  13. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    Congrat's. Well done.
     
  14. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    If Cincinnati did win it all.. What a victory for the Big 12!. Actually just getting in the 4 finalists is enough.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2021

  15. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the offer. But I'm not interested in doing any radio or TV shows.

    One of my mottos in blackjack was win today. Play tomorrow. But thanks to your buddy there are no more tomorrow's.

    Sportsbetting? I hold my own. I bet $2200 a game prior to covid. Didn't bet during covid.
    Started back this year at $1,100 a game. I didn't if I would get in a full season or not. Plus all the rule changes.

    I struggled in baseball. Undefeated in NFL. Looking at Baltimore +2.5 at Cleveland.
    Even in NBA. 1-0 in NHL.
     
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2021
  16. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    Good news if Philly wins out they will make they playoffs. Bad news is probably a trip to Tampa or cross country. The win also puts them 1/2 ahead of Pittsburgh. So they lose out on the Pennsylvania sweepstakes for Pathers Heisman candidate QB Kenny Pickett.
     
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2021
  17. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    So you are following just one team across the season ( philly) or looking for the standout bet of the week ( round) per week?

    My American friend of about 20years now had introduced me to the packers as I mentioned to him way back when I enjoyed nfl, as he owned and ran his own conglomerate here in skipptophia he would and still does invite me over for the packer game. Here in skipptophia your Sunday night game is at the most gentlemanly hour of 8:00 am ish Monday morning !!! I’m fairly blind come the afternoon here lol.

    So I usually follow packers in betting only on the money line AND we all know YOU can’t do that unless you are coke no ize. This season ok so far , first season game I didn’t bet nor the no Rodgers Covid show game, so only got done for 1 loss so far, lol I did manage to get their upset win against Sam Fran, but I did miss a couple of wins as I was not sure they would win , so no bet that odd couple of games. I didn’t take them for Cleveland game as I actually thought Cleveland might muscle up.

    Excuse me for the post as coke no ize says I know nothing about what I’m saying. Funny my account says otherwise. So let’s not say anything to my account, lol.

    To continue Tater , do you mind sharing some of your thoughts/ method for sports betting nfl and mlb ? Do you flat bet or adjust your bet sizing as determined by your current loss/win standings.
    I did read this forum a good thread/post about unders/ overs betting on the basketball . It was some months ago so can dig it up if needed.

    cheers
     
  18. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    PC writes: So you are following just one team across the season ( philly) or looking for the standout bet of the week ( round) per week?

    Tater says: I thought it was ironic probably the best QB in the draft graduates from University of Pittsburgh. And two NFL teams in the same state are in dire need of a QB. Every one will soon forget this season. But a great QB can be a viable asset for years to come.
     
  19. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    PunkCity writes: To continue Tater , do you mind sharing some of your thoughts/ method for sports betting nfl and mlb ? Do you flat bet or adjust your bet sizing as determined by your current loss/win standings.

    Tater writes: I'm looking for value. Much like one would seek in a stock or mutual fund. My bets come from years of research the separate advantages from threshold.

    I flat bet. I used to go $2200 a game with a goal to reach 100 bets a year in MLB, NHL, NBA, and NFL. But there isn't that many games that present advantages anymore. Covid shares the shit out of me. So I cut back to $1100.

    I'm primarily looking at overall record and home/away records of both the team I'm betting on and team I'm betting against. I never watch the games I bet. I prefer one good or bad jolt at the end.
     
    Punkcity likes this.
  20. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Yes Tom Brady, Rodgers, etc. there has been some truly legendary people throughout the nfl history. Probably more known to USA than to the rest of the world but even in my limited knowledge of the game I do appreciate the draft pick each year from the college system, astounding, the right/wrong choice of quarterback in the right draft pick . Astounding. Not all hiessman trophy winner can kick on but a lot do.
    Astounding.
     
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