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Baccarat Shoe a day!

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by baccarou, Jan 22, 2023.

  1. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    To get my money's worth out of the Baccarat Win Pro Software, I am going to play a shoe a day and I will post up the Win/Loss charts to show my progress.

    I will also give a little synopsis of the shoe. Was it hard/easy, what MM I used etc....

    My aim is to mimic how I roughly play when I visit the Casino and play for real. I base my play around Bet Selection, however that's not to say that I don't think MM isn't important. My experience tells me that both Bet Selection and MM can be very fluid to suit the situation. Regards MM, I like to be conservative and because working out where I am going to place my bet, I don't have loads of time to figure out complicated MM techniques. So I keep it to a few simple plays which are flat bet, a 1/2 negative progression for the times when it's going LWLW etc.. I also will use a conservative positive progression if I am in the middle of a good winning streak. The above 3 styles suit my temperament and keep my nerves in tact.

    Feel free to post how you would have performed in any of the shoes and add your own take on things as the thread progresses.
     
    JacobBlaze and cps10 like this.
  2. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    ScreenHunter 02.png

    This one was from yesterday.

    A nice few Terrible Two opportunities in this one and I was using a 1/2 neg progression for the most part. It helps if you get a lot of LW situations to keep gaining that 1 unit profit. I like to trust my instincts and get a feel for how things are going. If things don't feel right, I can happily just flat bet. It's one of the reasons why I prefer Baccarat to Roulette because I think you can feel your way through a shoe where as roulette is just a rollercoaster ride.

    My betting style is to play in sections and dip my toe in the water and then I can progress if there are more wins than losses. Once that particular section ends, I then look for another opportunity. I don't carry over whatever MM I was using into the new section and prefer to start from scratch again. I am confident that somewhere in the shoe, I will get a section that will perform well and can get me a profit from the shoe and if there are no good sections, well, at least I am not going to lose the farm!
     
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  3. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    This one is from today.

    ScreenHunter 03.png

    I can't say that I ever felt comfortable playing this one and so just flat bet all the way through. Looking back on it, it's not to say that there were no good opportunities, sometimes you just might not be on top of your game. Do you ever play a shoe where you just feel things never get going? Well, this was one of those. I was doing well picking off the first line wins but then couldn't follow up with the second win. In real live play, I am always happy to take a profit, even if it's just a handful of units because it sure beats losing.
     
  4. Georgie

    Georgie Member

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    Your Hit Rates are pretty good.

    I've been using the following 20-Step MM Progression a lot with Baccarat, with good success, and haven't busted out the top yet. You can even limit it to 18 Steps, which lowers the overall risk to 275 units. Only once have I ever reached Step-18.

    1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 12, 16, 22, 29, 39, 52, 69, 92, 123 = 490 Total Units (20-Steps)

    After a win, parlay the bet. If a parlayed bet loses, move one step to the right. If a parlayed bet wins, reset to step 1.
     
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  5. cps10

    cps10 Well-Known Member

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    Surely you can win two in a row within that series.
     
  6. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    You would think so, wouldn't you! What would it take to lose that?

    LLLWLWLWLWLLLLWLWLWLLLLWLWLLL and that's you -490 units.
    Alternatively flat betting and you are only -11 which doesn't sound so bad compared to -490.
    Personally speaking, I am not used to outlaying big bets on the table and so it wouldn't suit me but for sure you could get a lot of mileage out of something like that.
     
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  7. treetopbuddy

    treetopbuddy Member

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  8. treetopbuddy

    treetopbuddy Member

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    2 wins in a row is crazy luck
     
  9. Georgie

    Georgie Member

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    I don't like betting many multiples of my basic unit either. Too much stress. I've tried most of the different progressions, but I usually just play D'Alambert. An oldie but goodie. Keeps the bet sizes reasonable, and as long as you can win 10 out of 23 bets (43.4% Hit Rate), you'll make money. I think Labouchere is a particularly smart/safe MM too, but like you said, it can be complicated to stay organized without pencil and paper, and often there's not enough time to both manage that and select the bet.
     
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  10. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Nice.
    Bwps erratic rng? Or collection of pre played shoes on database?

    As for money management I prefer flat bet as per your post above. As stated previously by me and you baccarou may recall also that start your flat bet at 2 units aiming for a win first up of course. If you get that first up bet if 2 units as a win then your next bet is 1 UNIT. If you lose that bet you are up 1 unit , session over OR next bet is restart your 2 unit flat bet. We aim to get 3 wins in a row THEN WE parlay
    Example
    W+2,
    W bet 1 unit +1 running game profit (rgp)+2, actual profit (ap)+3 units
    W bet 1 unit , rgp +3 , ap +4 unit
    NOW we aim to cash in on win streak by chipping up to a 2 unit bet on next hand .
    (If a loss rgp =2 unit and actual profit =+2 unit. )
    W@2 unit bet AP = +6 units
    Next bet chip up 1 unit
    W+3 unit AP +9 unit
    Next bet chip up 1 unit etc.
    Say this bet loses
    L -4 units Total Actual profit is +5 units.
    End of season, exit point.
    If no exit and session is continued restart at 2 unit flat bet etc.
    Using this posted shoe as an example for 2 unit flat bet start.
    L -2( - = minus 2units)
    L-4
    W-2
    L-4
    W-2
    L-4
    L-6
    W-4
    L-6
    W-4
    L-6
    W-4
    W-2
    W= even 0
    L-2
    W=0
    W+2 units WE ARE now in profit
    NEXT bet is 1 unit as we are in a +2 unit profit
    L -1 unit # exit point from game session option as we are in fact up +1 unit profit.

    Total running game profit +1 unit exit point

    If we continue this shoe next bet is 2 units
    W+2 units , we now NEXT bet 1 unit , automatically locking up another 1 unit profit adding to our running game profit now total of +2 units .
    W+1 now AP is +3 units our running game profit is +2 units
    L-1 unit
    Exit point etc profit +2 unit.

    As a side note I often get 5,6,7,8 + wins in a row by chipping up and ALWAYS securing a profit in these situations, as discussed above, depending on the game day( example I’m in good profit early ) I do go aggressively in chipping up and DO OFTEN hit table maximum bets. Usually I like 2 maximum bets then peel off 3/4 of the units and let it ride double up etc. Realistically after 10 or 11 wins in a row YOU KNOW time is up and that’s why I peel off as much fat as I can. My max win in a row was 16 ONCE so the 8 wins in a row is the average. Ish.

    Side note I do play non commissioned baccarat, if my win is a 1/2 price banker win I continue at 2 until I get my +2 profit to bet next at 1 unit etc. This is also a touchy feely thing as you discussed and I may exit shoe at +1 unit, etc.

    When I play commission baccarat I start with a 3 unit flat bet and drop to 1 unit at the +3 unit win mark as discussed above. That takes care of commission on bank etc. The table is live dealing and not stadiums at commission bank, much much slower and I rarely play them as I find it’s really boring play not boring profit, lol.
    Enjoy your posts and hopefully this is food for thought. Cheers
     
  11. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    There are some good MM strategies floating around out there. I like the Divisor but as stated don't really have the time to calculate it live.
    Another one I like is Mr Oops Reverse Labouchere which uses a stop-loss handler. It also eliminates the one loss crosses out two winnings problem. I am not Kerry Packer and the Casino isn't going to do me any favours hanging around waiting for me to figure it all out.
     
  12. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    Thanks for your very detailed reply Punkcity! It's appreciated and I like the idea of a 2 unit flat bet to at least guarantee the unit should the next bet be a loss. It's obviously one of those that's playable as well if you have other stuff to calculate.
     
  13. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    many progressions are modifications of D'Alembert. You might like to use +1,-1 Flat as outlined by Stetson Bailey in his book. So WLWW now bets flat until a loss then up one again. So WLWW looks like 3232 and now stay at 2 units until lose. When lose next bet is 3.

    Cheers
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2023
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  14. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Yes. This should make us realize that no matter the progression the accumulation of our large bets must be greater than the accumulation of our small bets.

    Guessing, MM and discipline is key. Bet selection is secondary.

    Cheers
     
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  15. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    My style woulda capture 2.35 units nets profits buckin up against this shoe, hey hey.
     
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  16. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    This shoe woulda been goods for 4.3 units nets profits for me, hey hey.
     
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  17. Georgie

    Georgie Member

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    I like it. Thanks Brother, I'll practice with it. Makes sense.
     
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  18. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Also with D'Alembert you can't start with 1 unit because if win right off there is no place to retreat to. IMO best to start at 3 or 5 units.
     
  19. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Really? Flat bet B and get 2.35 net. You blowing smoke up everybody's ass again? LMAO.
     
  20. baccarou

    baccarou Active Member

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    ScreenHunter 03 (01).png

    The 3rd shoe.

    This one was different to the other two which were pretty choppy.
    When it's streaky, unlike the others, I seem to lose the first line but then pick up on the spots further down.
    Depending on how you chart, you can see a lot of recurring patterns and there was a few here.
    Again, I was just flat betting and aiming for 5 units.
     

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